$10NL - anatomy of a bluff

[Bombjack]

fulltiltpoker Game #2092208516: Table Inverter (6 max) - $0.05/$0.10 - No Limit Hold'em - 0:05:25 ET - 2007/03/29
Seat 1: hitimes45 ($16.70)
Seat 3: Bombjack_x ($19.85)
Seat 5: jehosavat ($7.15)
Seat 6: udbrky ($9)
hitimes45 posts the small blind of $0.05
Bombjack_x posts the big blind of $0.10
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Bombjack_x A♦ 8♠
jehosavat folds
udbrky folds
hitimes45 calls $0.05
Bombjack_x raises to $0.30
hitimes45 calls $0.20
*** FLOP *** 2♣ J♦ 8♥ (pot = 0.6)
hitimes45 checks
Bombjack_x bets $0.40
hitimes45 raises to $0.80
Bombjack_x raises to $2.20
hitimes45 calls $1.40
*** TURN *** 2♣ J♦ 8♥ 7♦ (pot = 5.6)
hitimes45 bets $5
Bombjack_x has 15 seconds left to act
Bombjack_x raises to $17.35, and is all in


Table image:
me = 37/21/2.3 for this session, mostly 4/5 handed. Solid image, no bluffs shown.
he = 57/9/3.2 over 35 hands

What's Villain's range here?
What does he put me on?
What range can call a push on the turn?
Is a push therefore +EV?

Now assume we're playing $100 NL and re-assess!

 

[Dingodaddy23]

looks a lot like 9/10 or some other hand that someone at 10 NL is not folding like QJ or J10 or something like that

 

[Egon Towst]

I agree with DD. The most logical scenario is that he has T9 and probably thinks you have a pocket pair, perhaps even JJ.

However, you presumably wouldn`t be showing us a hand where you crash and burn while trying to bluff some guy off the nuts. It must be something weird.

Go on then, show us the worst.

 

[dj11]

I'll guess small pp, hopefully not 77 (we really want you to show us your genius). His range could be anything HU.

I do not know what the stats mean as I do not have Poker Tracker.

He is putting you on the 9T.

2nd choice would be he has QT/79 matching suited and is interested in the gutshot. I think he folds here. Only thing that will call is 2 Pair, or trips. Unless those stats show he is LAG, then he calls with a J. I think anything stronger bets bigger up front. But you have taken away a LAG's most important tool, acting first.

My guess for the final showing is; he too has A8, and the 8 is a heart. This will be a good example of the bluff, where u take down the would be split pot. Incidently, I would consider this a semi bluff rather than a ordinary bluff.

 

[joosebuck]

gotta be an akward 2p or 9T.

edit: 22/88 might do this for some reason, although 60vpip doesnt limit his limps to pp's at all.

 

[Egon Towst]

I do not know what the stats mean as I do not have Poker Tracker.

They mean that villain is pretty loose, not unusually aggressive pre-flop, a bit more so post-flop.

However, 35 hands is not a great sample, so one should perhaps not put too much faith in this.

 

[Bombjack]

I think T9 is only a tiny tiny part of villain's (or his view of my) range here. Why would that check-min-raise the flop and call a re-raise, with only a gutshot and no overcards?

 

[Dingodaddy23]

dj11 if he is putting on hero on 9/10 (the nuts) then why is betting 50 bb (almost a pot sized bet) into him on the turn???


bombjack, villian was open-ended on the flop

i'd say all jacks are in his range including J8, + sets and the 9/10. i think his range crushes yours and i doubt he folds anything that you're beating

 

[blankoblanco]

I just don't like this. He probably doesn't have T9, but aside from that he could have any J or two pair, either of which you're hard pressed to get someone to fold at these stakes.

Basically you're folding out a better hand almost never at this level with how much he has left to call, so I don't get it. If he folds, it means you had the best hand like 90+% of the time.

At $100NL, I still don't like it enough given that he's invested nearly half his stack and he's getting like 3:1, + lots of people are still calling stations at $100 NL, and you'll literally get looked up from as low as J9 often here.

 

[alan1983]

I think hes very unlikely to have 109.

He most likely has a pairof jacks i think, KJ, QJ, J10....

With your betting hes should be strongly suspecting an overpair by now.

I think his turn bet could very well be a feeler, to help him define his hand more.

Now being that poker decisions are made in split seconds, he could very well call this with his jacks, i think J10 calls here often.

 

[edge-t]

Seems like QJ, KJ, J9, J10. I think he probably puts u on AQ-AK, thus the bet on the turn.

I don't really like the bluff... especially at this limit. They might just call out of frustration

 

[ChuckTs]

All I see here is two LAGs butting heads tbh.

What hands are you 'bluffing' out? Basically stone cold bluffs, right? I mean he's not folding any hand that has you beat (any jack, straight, 2 pair...)

So all we've done by pushing the river is scared off hands that have missed the board, and put money in the middle vs cards that have us beat (I really don't see a jack folding here).

 

[alan1983]

All I see here is two LAGs butting heads tbh.

What hands are you 'bluffing' out? Basically stone cold bluffs, right? I mean he's not folding any hand that has you beat (any jack, straight, 2 pair...)

So all we've done by pushing the river is scared off hands that have missed the board, and put money in the middle vs cards that have us beat (I really don't see a jack folding here).

I think a jack can fold here. Definitely harder with those stacks, but if it was bit deeper and with a reasonable player, a fold is quite likely.
I think youll get players to think theyre losing here 90% of the time. Now whether they actually act on it or call thinking theyre dead, is another issue i guess.

 

[ChuckTs]

Against a 57/9/3 player, he's %99 not folding a jack...

 

[alan1983]

I dont really know what that means lol.

But say this player comes to forum, and posts this hand and he has QJ, and is wondering what to do on turn. Would you tell him its an easy call?

I think a lot of answers hed get would be "dont overvalue tpwk, or "what could bombjack have that you beat".

So a fold would be on a lot of players minds.

 

[ChuckTs]

oh sorry :/

He's basically very loose and very aggressive.

Calling with any jack is by no means a 'right' play, but a loose player like villain is most probably not folding.

 

[blankoblanco]

Ya, the point is that making a play here expecting top pair to fold when he's getting 3:1 with a card to come at $10NL is generally a losing proposition. The majority of players at $10NL aren't there 'cause of their expertise at getting away from hands when they're beat

 

[Bombjack]

bombjack, villian was open-ended on the flop

Good point I mis-read the hand. So yes T9 does actually seem like a decent part of his range.

he's getting like 3:1, + lots of people are still calling stations at $100 NL, and you'll literally get looked up from as low as J9 often here.

He's getting 2:1 not 3:1. However yes, he's put a good chunk of his stack in already may call down light.

He most likely has a pairof jacks i think, KJ, QJ, J10....

With your betting hes should be strongly suspecting an overpair by now.

I think his turn bet could very well be a feeler, to help him define his hand more.

Well this is my thinking. If he has a Jack, it's unlikely to be a strong Jack, i.e. AJ, KJ, even QJ, because he didn't raise pre-flop. J2 folds pre-flop. J8 is possible but less likely because I hold one of the three 8s not on the board. Any pocket pair raises pre-flop. So at best I put him on JT - J9, or possibly J7/T9 (which now obviously don't fold). But I have a pretty decent image. I raised pre-flop, re-raised the flop, and raise here... can he call here with top pair weak kicker when the only thing he can beat is a bluff?

I had a feeling I was behind after he calls a re-raise on the flop, although part of me thought that he couldn't have an overpair (no PFR) and what are the chances he has a Jack (in a random hand, 12%).

Unfortunately I didn't have my HUD up so I didn't realise what donkey stats he had, which is useful info in trying to push someone off their hand.

 

[blankoblanco]

He's getting 2:1 not 3:1.

It was just a quick estimate, but it's closer to 3:1 than 2:1. You shoved all-in for $17-whatever, but he has fewer chips than you. Your all-in is essentially a raise to $14.20 because that's all he can call. So at that point there's $24.80 in the pot and it's $9.20 more for him to call, if my math's right. ~2.7:1

 

[Egon Towst]

He's basically very loose and very aggressive.

Do you think so, Chuck ?

I would have said that, in 6-max Micro-Limit, these numbers:

Table image:
me = 37/21/2.3 for this session, mostly 4/5 handed. Solid image, no bluffs shown.
he = 57/9/3.2 over 35 hands

suggest that villain is loose (though I`ve often seen looser), but not unusually aggressive. I reckon that 9-10 preflop is about standard in these games, although 3 postflop is highish.

 

[ChuckTs]

Do you think so, Chuck ?

I would have said that, in 6-max Micro-Limit, these numbers:



suggest that villain is loose (though I`ve often seen looser), but not unusually aggressive. I reckon that 9-10 preflop is about standard in these games, although 3 postflop is highish.

I think you're description before was accurate (I'd missed that the first time around); he's more of a calling station PF, and kind of in between that and a LAG postflop.

Either way the point I was trying to get across was more about how loose he is - he's not going to fold any significant piece of that board to BJ's push.

 

[Bombjack]

I worked it out just now as 2.63:1 (we've put in 7.50 each so he has 9.20 left, 9.20/(7.50*2 + 9.20) = 0.38 or 2.63:1 so he's getting better odds that I thought.

So he needs 9.2/(16.7*2) = 27.5% equity to call.

If my read is right and he has JT / J9, and he puts me on an overpair, he thinks he can win with a Jack, a Nine or a Ten (to hit 2 pair or a straight), giving him 9 outs, or 18% equity. If he's against a bluff 10% of the time, I suppose a call is reasonable.

 

[ChuckTs]

I worked it out just now as 2.63:1 (we've put in 7.50 each so he has 9.20 left, 9.20/(7.50*2 + 9.20) = 0.38 or 2.63:1 so he's getting better odds that I thought.

So he needs 9.2/(16.7*2) = 27.5% equity to call.

If my read is right and he has JT / J9, and he puts me on an overpair, he thinks he can win with a Jack, a Nine or a Ten (to hit 2 pair or a straight), giving him 9 outs, or 18% equity. If he's against a bluff 10% of the time, I suppose a call is reasonable.

Do you really think this is running through a 57/9/3 player's head during the hand, though?

If he's holding a jack it's more like "im already committed", then an instacall.

 

[blankoblanco]

Do you really think this is running through a 57/9/3 player's head during the hand, though?

If he's holding a jack it's more like "im already committed", then an instacall.

I agree.