$100NL, Sizing a river bet with the nuts.

[tenbob]

Both players in this hand are winning reg's, I cant see what they are calling with unless its flush/straight draws, the river either got them there or will scare them off calling a big bet with KQ type hands, the bottom end of the value im getting. Is check-shoving too risky ? A preflop raise could have been in order here, and is my norm, just dont want to get too predectibale against these , I got my stack with AA vs AK on an Ace high flop about 2 orbits ago. The turn bet was supposed to look scared and allow them drawing odds.

poker stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 8 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)
Hero (SB): $194.70
BB: $79.20
UTG: $98.00
UTG+1: $185.25
MP1: $117.90
MP2: $102.50
CO: $84.70
BTN: $23.15
Preflop: Hero is dealt

(8 Players)
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $1.00, 4 folds, Hero calls $0.50, BB checks
Flop: ($3)

(3 Players)
Hero bets $3.00, BB calls $3.00, UTG+1 calls $3.00
Turn: ($12)

(3 Players)
Hero bets $5.00, BB calls $5.00, UTG+1 calls $5.00
River: ($27)

(3 Players)

Hero ???

 

[ChuckTs]

Well I'm not sure BB will fold to a ch-r if he's got the flush considering how much he'll have left in his stack, but if utg+1 is a solid player, there's a chance you might push him off a flush with a ch-push since he's so deep, as are you. Not many hands will make that play once the river fills a flush, and he'll probably deduce that you've got a FH, having filled up on the turn.

I think I like a lead better just in case we either get checks behind from weak kings or possibly push a flush out with a check-push. I don't see a flush getting away if we lead-push since he'll have committed so much more of his stack. I think I'll stick out like $10-15 to make it look like another scared blocking bet and obv come over the top of any raise.

hmm maybe leading for almost pot might be better...I dunno, this really is a duesy...

 

[blankoblanco]

i definitely wouldn't check. don't know, i'd just try to make a bet that might get value from KJ/KQ type stuff, something around $12. Any FHs will always raise for value and most flushes will the majority of the time and then you can shove on them. So I think the bet should be most concerned with getting value from weak a K and with the board paired and the flush hitting, I don't think I'd make it very large

the other thing is if one of them made a small flush, often even a bigger flush, once you bet pot-sized they're really likely to just call because your line looks so strong. but when you make a $12 bet that they could perceive as a blocker due the flush hitting, they'll often feel obligated to value raise their small flush

 

[skoldpadda]

A lot of hands calling that turn are calling the river. Get full value and bet the pot.

 

[ChuckTs]

A lot of hands calling that turn are calling the river. Get full value and bet the pot.

Very true, but that's not the main concern. We can probably get more than a pot bet called here, but the problem is how to get the rest of our opponents' stacks in the middle - we want to induce a raise, or possibly get a call from a ch-r all in from us.

 

[Schatzdog]

Zeebo theorem may apply. It states that an opponent will never fold a FH.

In this case I guess shoving is an option if there is a strong chance one of them has a FH. This may seem the wrong move but could potentially show the greatest profit over time.

 

[blankoblanco]

guys, we don't have to bet big if someone has a FH. if they have a FH they will RAISE for us and we will get all-in no matter what! so while we're at it, we might as well get value out of weaker hands. etc. etc. see my previous points

and skold, the fact that the flush draw came changes the board entirely, so i really think the logic doesn't apply well here

 

[pigpen02]

There is at least one person who will fold a full house on the river. I chose not to name him. :icon_porc

 

[joeeagles]

I agree with Chuck's analysis on why it isn't a good idea to check and leading off is certainly the better option. So the question becomes, how much? It's true that a lot of hands calling the turn are calling the river also, but not if its a pot size bet.

IMO Combu's line is correct, to make a $12 bet. We must think of their hands and what they're calling with. Keeping that in mind, with a $12 bet, we achieve:

1) getting value from KQ, KJ and KT type of hands (if there are no flushes)

2) it's a small size bet and it will get a value raise from little flushes

Betting the pot will make hands in 1) likely fold on that river and hands in 2) likely flat call rather than raise us.

A FH is of no concern to us because he'll certainly put in a bigger raise hoping we hit a flush and then happily call our shove. This thread isn't intended for hands that big because they will play themselves, our job here is to maximize vs hands that are smaller than a FH or the nut flush and for reasons said above I think the $12 bet is the best.

 

[Mesisca]

I think it is safe to assume that none of them have a Full House, which wont matter anyway, because if they do have a boat, its with TT or KK, which are 2nd and 3rd nuts(respectively) and will raise any bet we make anyway. We can definitly take 44 out of a possible holding, you said they are winning players.

So you are looking at what they have. I think that UTG +1 has better odds to be the one with the flush, seeing as he was getting correct odds to call the flop, while at the time the BB was not. I am putting the BB on a hand like KJs or KQo. If this is true, checking the river is not a good play, because then you will only get paid if UTG +1 does have a flush.

Its easy math to figure out the correct bet, but its getting the percentages right.

lets say that 30% of the time the BB has a flush and would call your raise and you check raise him triple his bet. He would probably make the bet around $15. a raise to $45 would be a decent size.

thats $45(.3) = $13.5 as the value for check raising to $45

lets say there is a 15% chance that one of them has an A high flush. This percentage may be a bit high, but who knows.


You could probably check-raise- and get re-raised or check-raise to $80

that would be 80(.15) a $12 value.



Now if one of them has a low flush or just KJ or KQ, you may be able to get one of them to call a $14 bet(around half the pot) after looking at the other options, I would say its going to be rough to get one of them all in here, so a $14 bet looks like the best option and just hope one of them hit the flush...

 

[tenbob]

Yea, I bet $12 and got called by the nut flush

 

[vanquish]

I was thinking something more pot-sized, having read an article a while ago about how opponents calling ~1/2-2/3 pot sized bets with solid hands will call pot sized bets just as often. Perhaps?

 

[evny]

the biggest mistake here is the turn bet sizing IMO

 

[evny]

also, after betting larger on the turn, i could argue for just shoving the river

you've got a straight there, a flush that just hit, KT 2 pair, the unlikely FH, etc etc etc that will prob call the river overbet... i think any straight/flush calls a push putting you on trip 9's....

wheras a hand like a weak K isn't gonna call any kind of size on the river anyways...

soooo... yea my vote is to bet $10 on the turn and push the river...

 

[ICMoney]

River – meh.

I think your mistake was on the turn.
You lead for pot on the flop and then make such a weak bet on the turn 185bb deep?

I lead turn for $9 or $10.

I fire again on the river.

As played, I bet around 17.

 

[ICMoney]

soooo... yea my vote is to bet $10 on the turn and push the river...

Pot would be around $50 and you think you can push for $130 and get called by what?

 

[blankoblanco]

pushing river is really bad.. these guys are winning players and will see right through it. you fold out every medium flush and you likely even fold out the nut flush. practically every hand that calls your river shove would have raised and got all-in with you to begin with (full houses). so all you're really doing is losing value from every other hand

 

[evny]

well... for BB at least it's only $15 more than pot which he's calling w a straight or a flush...

i see ur point for the other deep guy though... i'll retract my push river thing since no one can call w trips either....

so i'm betting nearpot on turn, and nearpot on river...


also... which regulars were these?... i don't know any winning regulars who are gonna start a hand w only 80 bucks....

actually nm that just saw this is FR... i don't know any of those regs hehe