100nl, JJ overpair on flushy flop

[ChuckTs]

Villain is a 13/6.5/1 after 30 hands, and I think I've been a little more aggressive than my normal tag game at this table.

Our line?

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed)

Button ($100)
SB ($38.65)
BB ($45)
UTG ($61.35)
UTG+1 ($38.50)
MP1 ($57.55)
Hero ($100)
MP3 ($102.35)
CO ($158.30)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J

, J

.
UTG calls $1, 2 folds, Hero raises to $4.5, MP3 raises to $12, 4 folds, UTG folds, Hero calls $7.50.

Flop: ($26.50) 4

, 9

, 6

(2 players)
Hero ...

 

[zachvac]

Obviously we like that we have the J of hearts. I'd be more worried about an overpair than the flush IMO. There's no possible action I can think of that would be good, it's the lesser of the evils. If you lead out here, you can be pretty sure you're beat with a call (and a raise you have to fold here). Checking here keeps the pot small if we get a check behind, but I'm thinking an overpair would bet here wanting to see where they stand and price out flush draws (unless for example it's AhAx). If you check here you open yourself up to bluffs though from lower hands or even something like A9 thinking they're good but afraid of the flush draw. I think we have to lead out here just because of what happens if we check, but even so this is an extremely tough spot. Pot is $24, I make a blocking type bet of $10 here.

 

[c9h13no3]

Villain is solid, so I think we can assume he's re-popping the preflop with AQ+ and TT+. So our odds going into the turn look like so:

============
Against AQ+ with 1 heart in their hand, we're ahead, and they have a 25% shot at beating us on the turn.

Against AQ+ with no hearts, they've got a 6% chance of beating us by the turn.

Against QQ+ with no hearts, we have a 21% draw to beat them on the turn.

Rest we either crush or get crushed by.
============

There's a large variation in our equity depending on villain's holding. Its going to be very difficult to get max value out of all of villain's range with 1 action.

Since we're OOP, in a 3-bet pot, with a decent draw that our opponent may not have, I think checking here gives us the most information & puts us in the best position. Lots of hands with flush draws are likely to raise us, and we're in a bad position to call a raise.

Additionally, villain's choice of betting or checking behind on this flop will give us some indication of if he has a flush draw or not. Would you check behind on this flop with [AcAs] and risk getting out-drawn? I doubt it. Thus, I think if we get a check behind us, we can narrow villain's range down a bit, and think about discounting our outs to the flush.

/me checks

 

[Jagsti]

We have no real relevant stats on villain, therefore we don't know if he cb's 100% or what. This is a horrible position imo, checking gives us no real information unless villain chks. If he cb's then what do we do, call and evaluate the turn? If we lead out here 2/3rds $16-$18, do we fold out his 3-betting range (probably AQ+ JJ+), probably not. There's a possibilty he r/r the flop if we do this and thats when we can make our decision to felt it or fold.

We have 2 options then, try to make him fold now by betting $18, or get to showdown as cheaply as possible, by checking and hoping he does as well.

I think all things considered i bet here.

 

[blankoblanco]

If you check here you open yourself up to bluffs though from lower hands or even something like A9 thinking they're good but afraid of the flush draw.

which is what we want imo. i'd c/r all-in. thanks to the Jh there are so few hands in the deck that have us in bad shape. only AAh KKh and QQh. the fact that we don't hate it if he checks behind makes going for the c/r all-in even better i think

if you bet, are you folding if he raises? because AhK or AhQ should absolutely shove over a donkbet here, and folding to those hands after how much would be in the pot when we bet is blech

 

[soccerfreakjj10]

which is what we want imo. i'd c/r all-in. thanks to the Jh there are so few hands in the deck that have us in bad shape. only AAh KKh and QQh. the fact that we don't hate it if he checks behind makes going for the c/r all-in even better i think

if you bet, are you folding if he raises? because AhK or AhQ should absolutely shove over a donkbet here, and folding to those hands after how much would be in the pot when we bet is blech

I agree completely. Betting out here would be completely the wrong play. With the total situation there are very few hands that the villain would not re-raise an opening bet out - let alone fold. When we are reraised we are put in a very difficult spot. If we c/r, we are the aggressor and will put villain to the tough decision instead. Plus the c/r induces bluffs by hands we beat, and we wouldn't really mind a check.

 

[Jagsti]

which is what we want imo. i'd c/r all-in. thanks to the Jh there are so few hands in the deck that have us in bad shape. only AAh KKh and QQh. the fact that we don't hate it if he checks behind makes going for the c/r all-in even better i think

if you bet, are you folding if he raises? because AhK or AhQ should absolutely shove over a donkbet here, and folding to those hands after how much would be in the pot when we bet is blech

This is a really tricky spot, Dont forget villains stats, his stats are 13/7 or thereabouts over a very small sample. I think his 3 bet range in full ring, from mp, can be narrowed quite safely to JJ+ AQ+ imo. Pokerstove calculates our equity against this range on the flop to be 53% in our favour. We're not exactly a huge fav here. The c/r is too uncomfortable for my liking as we could easily be drawing dead!

I have looked at this hand several times and I'm still not certain what the best line is, there's certainly an argument for all options. Thankfully we have a time limit at the tables and we can close our eyes, cross our fingers and hope for the best .

 

[c9h13no3]

Pokerstove calculates our equity against this range on the flop to be 53% in our favor.

Excellent. I was waiting for some pokerstove numbers.

I think with 53% equity against this range, then a check-raise all in is the standard play here. I was just worried that JJ was too low on the totem pole to make this an automatic check-raise all in. Add in the fact that we've got the ability to fold out some better hands with a giant check-raise, and I think this line becomes the most profitable play.

I wonder what the right line would be with ThTx.

 

[baconn]

a check/raise is the best play, villian can only call if he has Ah or Kh

 

[ChuckTs]

I wonder what the right line would be with ThTx.

Probably fold pf.

Great input guys, gonna wait a bit longer before posting the results but this is great stuff.

 

[Jagsti]

a check/raise is the best play, villian can only call if he has Ah or Kh

Are you serious?

No way does AA, KK or QQ fold here no matter what suit imo.

 

[Jagsti]

Chuck, come on man put us out of our misery .

 

[ChuckTs]

Heh, sorry.

I actually check-folded this to a ~3/4 bet.

My reasoning during the hand was that he probably checks UI overcards with no hearts in them, and bets everything else that has me beat so I could easily get away from the hand. So basically if he checks, I bet any non-heart, non-A/K turn and fold to a raise. I also fold to any bet on the flop.

This is pretty flawed thinking since we have decent equity and fold equity vs black aces for example, so a ch-r is definitely an option.

This one was shortly after my downswing so I was definitely playing more cautious - still not sure how I play it with a clear head or play it ideally though.

 

[Jagsti]

Heh, sorry.

I actually check-folded this to a ~3/4 bet.

My reasoning during the hand was that he probably checks UI overcards with no hearts in them, and bets everything else that has me beat so I could easily get away from the hand. So basically if he checks, I bet any non-heart, non-A/K turn and fold to a raise. I also fold to any bet on the flop.

This is pretty flawed thinking since we have decent equity and fold equity vs black aces for example, so a ch-r is definitely an option.

This one was shortly after my downswing so I was definitely playing more cautious - still not sure how I play it with a clear head or play it ideally though.

TBH its a tricky spot as I said. It's very easy to let recent results affect our play and against this villain I don't think a chk/fold is that bad of play.

 

[blankoblanco]

fwiw i'd c/f if we didn't have the Jh