[100nl FR] QQ vs squeeze from nit

ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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Feb 2, 2005
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The monkey in the middle is an unknown, seems pretty bad through <10 hands. The squeezer is an 11/5/4 over a decent sample, and I've been relatively tag (~14/11/4 long-term, not sure at this table).

I feel like JJ is an easy muck pf and that KK is a turbostack, but I'm stuck on QQ. Do we call and get it in on a rag flop or get it in pf? Can we fold pf? How about postflop as played?

I can't wait for pt3 and it's 3-betting/4-betting stats...

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG+1 ($100)
Hero ($100)
MP2 ($83.50)
CO ($18.40)
Button ($98.50)
SB ($136.10)
BB ($106.90)
UTG ($20)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q
club.gif
, Q
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.
2 folds, Hero raises to $3.5, MP2 calls $3.50, 1 fold, Button raises to $17, 2 folds, Hero calls $13.50, MP2 folds.

Flop: ($39) 3
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, 3
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, 9
spade.gif
(2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $28, Hero raises to $83
 
blankoblanco

blankoblanco

plays poker on hard mode
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ugh, gross spot. basically i'd check his c-bet %, and try to decide how likely he is to c-bet AK here. what makes it hard is that with his PFR% being so low, he could be c-betting the flop pretty often but still have legitimate hands virtually all of those times.

i mean, if we somehow know he's auto c-betting AK here every time, i think we can agree your way is the best way to play it. if we somehow know he's not c-betting AK here, possibly because he thinks you have some big/medium pair that he can't fold out, i think you can actually check fold since it probably reduces his range to JJ/KK/AA, weighted towards the ones that beat you because many nits won't even 3bet JJ here

more likely it's somewhere in between. in general, i usually just do what you did because i like to push all in. if you feel like he's playing AK this way pretty often, that's probably the right way to go
 
Jagsti

Jagsti

I'm sweet enough!
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Feb 18, 2007
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This is a horrid spot imo He has way nitty stats (do they usually make squeeze plays like this, with anything your beating?). Your chk on flop has led him to cb, we're beating some of his range here if mainly AQ+, but were way behind the rest. I usually go broke here tbh and spew chk/raise like you did :D.
 
tenbob

tenbob

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Wow, a 3-bet squeeze from an 11/5/4 :( I think we can range this fairly accurately to AK/AA/KK. I dunno if a player this nitty does this very often with less, I can't see JJ taking this line. I think JJ< set-mines here lots.

Having said that folding pre-flop is incredibly weak, but likely the best play. bah awful spot. Once we call and get a great flop like we did, it plays out fine.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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I think you may be right Liam - I don't think JJ is even in his squeezing range. Even if we include JJ+/AKo/AKs we're actually on the ugly side of a coinflip, and OOP that's not something we want to deal with.

Looks like folding preflop is standard.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.366% 45.79% 01.58% 27440794 945878.00 { QhQs }
Hand 1: 52.634% 51.06% 01.58% 30598090 945878.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
 
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