[100nl FR] AK on the river.

Jagsti

Jagsti

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Villain is a calling station 22/2/3.5 over 200 hands. His turn and river AF is high.

Check my lines here please, and River decision is what?

poker stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

MP2: $102.70
Hero (CO): $101
BTN: $98.50
SB: $160.40
BB: $117.45
UTG: $94.50
UTG+1: $98.50
MP1: $100

Pre-Flop: A
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K
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dealt to Hero (CO)
UTG calls $1, UTG+1 calls $1, 2 folds, Hero raises to $6, 3 folds, UTG calls $5, UTG+1 calls $5

Flop: ($19.50) A
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J
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Q
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(3 Players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $13.50, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $13.50

Turn: ($46.50) 7
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(2 Players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks

River: ($46.50) J
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(2 Players)
UTG+1 bets $25, Hero?
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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Why? It's like 1/2 pot, and with the reads it could easily be Ax, a busted draw, maybe even a jack. Not to mention your line looks exactly like a failed positional raise/c-bet attempt.

I call, but again, I'm a station.

Welcome back vanq btw.
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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We need to be good here just a wee bit more often than one time in four to call profitably.

Don't check the turn if you're not prepared to call the river; that's a good spot to bet/fold the turn in that case. Checking the turn induces bluffs and value bets from very weak hands, making us more or less committed to calling.
 
vanquish

vanquish

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actually i no longer know what i'm talking about.
i hate poker. argh
 
jewboy07

jewboy07

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I like the check on the turn IF you are willing to call this river bet

you played you're hand semi-weak and opp could easily be betting based on that


actually after a bit more thought a jack like KJ may make this bet?
Maybe?

well i'd think i still call this and expect like KQ
 
Jagsti

Jagsti

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Seriously, you guys double barrel this calling station :eek:
 
blankoblanco

blankoblanco

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Seriously, you guys double barrel this calling station :eek:

that would be the exact reason to consider double barreling him. we're not bluffing

river is tough because it's super likely he's turning a Q into a bluff, and i don't know how often he'd do this with a weaker A. i'm probably relying on a more specific idea of his play i'd have hopefully picked over 200 hands, and could go either way. calling is fun though
 
Jagsti

Jagsti

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that would be the exact reason to consider double barreling him. we're not bluffing

river is tough because it's super likely he's turning a Q into a bluff, and i don't know how often he'd do this with a weaker A. i'm probably relying on a more specific idea of his play i'd have hopefully picked over 200 hands, and could go either way. calling is fun though

Yep I understand why we double barrel on a drier board, but were behind such a huge portion of his calling range here double barreling seems burning money imo. As for the river, calling stations always seem to have the goods, yep I see them bluff the river on missed flush draws, but what is this guy bluffing with here. Sorry, but I couldn't see a hand I beat here, It was marginal fold/call but in the end I Fold :eek:.
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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Yep I understand why we double barrel on a drier board, but were behind such a huge portion of his calling range here double barreling seems burning money imo. As for the river, calling stations always seem to have the goods, yep I see them bluff the river on missed flush draws, but what is this guy bluffing with here. Sorry, but I couldn't see a hand I beat here, It was marginal fold/call but in the end I Fold :eek:.
Why does he have to be bluffing?

KQ, AT, A9, A8: 36 combos

KT, AQ, AJ, QJ, KJ, JJ, QQ, AA, 77: 43 combos

... and you're getting 3:1.

Sure, it might seem a bit weird for him to be betting KQ in this spot, but again, villain is not you. Bad players make bad plays. The unlikelyhood of KQ can be offset a bit by the chance that he really is bluffing with a hand like 87s.
 
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blankoblanco

blankoblanco

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i screwed up my last post btw, i meant to write "it's not super likely he's turning a Q into a bluff"

still slightly possible though. at least once per 100 hands i see someone turn their hand into a bluff (probably without even realizing it), in a spot that just makes zero sense. can be hard to know what the other guy is doing when he doesn't know what the hell he's doing himself

The unlikelyhood of KQ can be offset a bit by the chance that he really is bluffing with a hand like 87s.

:confused: chance that he c/c'd a strong bet on the flop into an already large pot with no pair, no draw, two unders is very close to 0%
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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:confused: chance that he c/c'd a strong bet on the flop into an already large pot with no pair, no draw, two unders is very close to 0%
Eh, I figured I'd toss in the possibility of flopped bottom pair, scrolled up and misread the board. Make it QT, then.
 
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