$100nl facing sick river value bet...

Jagsti

Jagsti

I'm sweet enough!
Joined
Feb 18, 2007
Total posts
5,478
Not long into this session less than 20 hands or so and no reads or previous histroy with villain. Stats are probably meaningless here but he's 35/25/2.


party poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

CO: $100
BTN: $99.50
SB: $276.74
BB: $113.25
UTG: $100
Hero (MP): $226.57

Pre-Flop: T
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9
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dealt to Hero (MP)
UTG folds, Hero raises to $4, 2 folds, SB calls $3.50, BB folds

Flop: ($9) 7
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J
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A
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(2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $6, SB calls $6

Turn: ($21) 8
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(2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $13, SB calls $13

River: ($47) 8
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(2 Players)
SB bets $37

Hero?

 
robwhufc

robwhufc

Cardschat Elite
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May 25, 2005
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5,587
$37 bet into $47 pot doesn't look like it wants a call IMO. If he's hit the FH or he was slow playing a made flush on the turn, I would have thought a $20ish bet would be more likely - maybe even another check to set up a re-raise.

Can't see many holdings that the 8 would be a help to, so i'd call. I wouldn't want to go over the top just in case you are beat, as I don't think he's calling for $166 with a weaker hand than you've got.
 
Dorkus Malorkus

Dorkus Malorkus

HELLO INTERNET
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Jul 12, 2005
Total posts
12,422
I dunno, we've indicated that we like our hand thus far, perhaps villain is aware of this and thinks he can eke out a little extra value by betting close to pot.

Then again he's 35/25 so he's apparently a little overly loose, and this looks all to consistent with the typical donk "I've flopped a set, let's slowplay" - "Oh crap the turn has hit the flush draw let's just call him down" - "Whoop, I filled up on the river let's bet!" line. It's definitely a close decision, but I veer towards folding here, then crying when he shows me a random AK or something, heh.
 
blankoblanco

blankoblanco

plays poker on hard mode
Joined
May 16, 2006
Total posts
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i'd fold. given action almost impossible to put him on hand you beat and this is a bluff approx never. only thing i could see is a really badly played AJ, but that seems unlikely. best you could realistically hope for is a chop
 
zachvac

zachvac

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Sep 14, 2007
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"I've flopped a set, let's slowplay" - "Oh crap the turn has hit the flush draw let's just call him down" - "Whoop, I filled up on the river let's bet!"



This or else just a flat out slow-play not even worrying about the flush draw. I've seen this a lot, check-call and then bet hard on the river. Similar thing happened to me yesterday only he bet like twice pot. I figured he must not be wanting a call, called with 2 pair. I failed to realize that he actually check-called the previous streets, and OOP on the river didn't want to risk us checking behind.

That said, my one example doesn't mean that's what happens every time. But I am inclined to think villain likes his hand here or thinks we're full of it but doesn't want to go to showdown. Definitely leaning towards the first one, but of course if villain likes his hand that doesn't necessarily mean it beats ours. He could have something like AK, possibly a single 8 ("yes, calling with 5 outs paid off, I'm a genius").

This is a tough one, no way I could lay it down if I got this hand (this is something I have to work on), but now that I think it through, we probably should fold this. Not a horrible call though, I just think the majority of hands that do this have us beat.
 
C

Czech Razor

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Feb 2, 2008
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41
A paired board plus 3 clubs on board makes me take his river lead out more seriously. I usually see the gay bet done when a draw doesn't get there but this one might be a true value bet where he's putting you on AK and thinking his flush will always get paid off here. It's really tough with no reads - you almost want to lean toward calling if this is a guy you will sit down with a lot in the future.
 
blankoblanco

blankoblanco

plays poker on hard mode
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CR - that's an excellent screen name. welcome to cc
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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Feb 2, 2005
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CR - that's an excellent screen name. welcome to cc

hah, agreed.

Regarding the hand I think it's best to fold. I just really don't see many hands that do this that you have beat. I also bet more on turn, really try to build the pot with prob ~$17.
 
Jagsti

Jagsti

I'm sweet enough!
Joined
Feb 18, 2007
Total posts
5,478
I just didn't know enough about this guy to call here, so I folded. I later went up against him another hand and I wasn't folding this little baby, over 200bb's deep!

Party Poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

UTG: $100
MP: $99.50
CO: $298.39
BTN: $113.25
SB: $99
Hero (BB): $203.57

Pre-Flop: 4
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4
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dealt to Hero (BB)
2 folds, CO raises to $4, 2 folds, Hero calls $3

Flop: ($8.50) 4
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7
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J
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(2 Players)
Hero checks, CO bets $7, Hero calls $7

Turn: ($22.50) 3
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(2 Players)
Hero checks, CO bets $16, Hero raises to $51, CO calls $35

River: ($124.50) Q
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(2 Players)
Hero bets $80, CO raises to $236.39 and is All-In, Hero calls $61.57 and is All-In

Results: $407.64 Pot
CO showed Q
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J
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(two pairs, Queens and Jacks) and WON $94.82 (-$108.75 NET)

Hero showed 4
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4
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(three of a kind, Fours) and WON $404.64 (+$201.07 NET)
 
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