100nl; AKo blind steal turned big pot

ChuckTs

ChuckTs

Legend
Joined
Feb 2, 2005
Total posts
13,642
EDIT: errr mods please change title to something relevant :)

Villain is a 12/8/1.5 tag after about 100 or 150 hands.

I ran a huge (and unsuccessful) bluff on him a short while ago floating AQ on a 87T flop, double barrelling the turn/river after a 6 dropped on the turn. He looked me up with AA.

We've been relatively tag otherwise.

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed)

UTG+1 ($93)
MP1 ($269.15)
MP2 ($56)
CO ($47.50)
Button ($106.50)
SB ($241.45)
BB ($18.50)
Hero ($122.65)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with
ac.gif
,
kd.gif
.
Hero raises to $3.5, 5 folds, SB calls $3, 1 fold.

Flop: ($8)
9c.gif
,
2c.gif
,
jc.gif
(2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $5.5, SB raises to $18, Hero ...
 
tenbob

tenbob

Legend
Joined
May 16, 2005
Total posts
11,221
Awards
1
Tough spot.

Without going into pokerstove, here would be my table play thoughts. A little different than going into some thoughtful anyalsis.

1) The board is obvious. Calling puts us firmly on a FD, and getting pushed off on the turn.

2) We need to see all 5 cards.

3) We need to be able to get him to fold the best hand. Does a small made flush or indeed a medium one play for stacks without the A 120xBB deep ? The board is obvious, we want our hand to be and the action dictates that he "should" be calling. It wont look like a bluff. Heck most players should fold a set if we shove this.

I shove here.
 
Tygran

Tygran

Cardschat Elite
Joined
Sep 4, 2007
Total posts
1,757
I think I'm gonna agree with TB.. If you call and miss on the turn, you aren't going to get a free river. He could be playing back at you a bit too after your recent bluff.

I think I like the shove here since the flush cards are going to scare him and calling is going to cost you alot with no fold equity. And if he calls which he might with a weaker than normal hand here you have a good shot at beating him anyway.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

Legend
Joined
Feb 2, 2005
Total posts
13,642
Not all that much going on here. I spoke with TB on msn about this and pretty much agree this should be a shove. My reasoning in the hand was that we were just a little too deep to push that much, and I didn't see a set/made flush folding to the shove since our push looks so much like AcKx here.

Anyways I called...

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed)

UTG+1 ($93)
MP1 ($269.15)
MP2 ($56)
CO ($47.50)
Button ($106.50)
SB ($241.45)
BB ($18.50)
Hero ($122.65)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A
club.gif
, K
diamond.gif
.
Hero raises to $3.5, 5 folds, SB calls $3, 1 fold.

Flop: ($8) 9
club.gif
, 2
club.gif
, J
club.gif
(2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $5.5, SB raises to $18, Hero calls $12.50.

Turn: ($44) 4
club.gif
(2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $27.5, SB calls $27.50.

River: ($99) 2
diamond.gif
(2 players)
SB bets $192.45 (All-In), Hero ...

Don't like my turn bet there. This was actually a mixup with the betpot script; I thought it bet 3/4 pot on the turn whereas it actually only bets 2/3, but anyways the bet was too small.

Can we possibly call this? What hands other than outright bluffs and filled up full houses (99 specifically) make this play?
 
NineLions

NineLions

Advanced beginner
Joined
Sep 20, 2006
Total posts
4,979
I dunno; what does J9 of another suit do? I don't know that I would have called preflop with that, but it fits the CR flop and the check/call on the 4 flush turn. Then when the boat possibility arrives on the river it's a chance to rep the boat in case you're on a non-club overpair.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

Legend
Joined
Feb 2, 2005
Total posts
13,642
J9 probably folds preflop, but is still possible.

I'm not sure he gets this far with it postflop though - he'd have to be a VERY tricky player to call that turn knowing he's drawing to 4 outs, or with the intention of putting a play on me if a deuce or 4 dropped. I'm not sure many tight regs get that aggressive or smart.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
Joined
Jan 2, 2007
Total posts
8,819
What hands other than outright bluffs and filled up full houses (99 specifically) make this play?
KcX slowplaying on the turn, and then wanting profit on the river? Maybe he saw your small turn bet as weakness. This isn't a bad river card to bluff on either.

To me, he's either holding J9, KcJ, Kc9, JJ, QcJ, or 99. Nothing else would allow players to take that sort of line without being totally bonkers. And since he's tight, J9 & K9 are looking less probable. JJ would probably re-raise you preflop too.

He's giving you 2.4:1 on your money, but his aggression factor isn't all that high.

I'm leaning towards fold, but I could probably be convinced otherwise.
 
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