100nl AK vs nitty regular

ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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Villain is a 10/2/2.8 nit after about 170 hands, and I've been tag again.

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed)

Hero ($109.35)
MP1 ($132.60)
MP2 ($252.65)
MP3 ($110.10)
CO ($102.80)
Button ($88)
SB ($62.30)
BB ($99.95)
UTG ($181.60)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A
club.gif
, K
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.
UTG calls $1, Hero raises to $4.5, 4 folds, Button calls $4.50, 2 folds, UTG calls $3.50.

Flop: ($15) 7
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, 6
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, A
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(3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $11, Button calls $11, UTG folds.

Turn: ($37) 5
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(2 players)
Hero ...
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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This smell like a set. A guy with these type numbers could definitely be set mining. I think I check call a reasonable bet. I don't like possibly giving a free card to say AQ with the Qh but I really don't like betting here. Tough spot.
 
skoldpadda

skoldpadda

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I'd probably ck/call OOP and ck/call a non-scary river. But first, what did the turn action show? And then if applicable, what's the river?
 
B

Bentheman87

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What a bad turn card. If he had 8 9 he hit a straight if he had a flush draw he hit a flush. I think he would raise on the flop if he flopped a set, since there were so many draws out there and the pot had 2 other players. He could definetly have AQ-A-8. I'd probably bet about $25 on the turn and fold to a shove.
 
Jagsti

Jagsti

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Without any read on villain, ie does he float ip and bet when scare cards come, or how he plays draws etc, then I think we have to give him credit here for either a set, or definately he's hit his draw on turn. I shut down here and fold to aggression as AK is my totally crapiest hand in my database. My winrate would be soooo dramatically improved if I let go of AK in early situations such as this.
 
S

switch0723

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I look to keep the pot small here. That turn card has basically helped every hand he could possibly call with. I think the only hands of his we can possibly beat now is a,q, a,j, and maybe a,t. Maybe pocket tens or 9's or another pp in region.

I would check here and fold to any bet since i imagine that all the hands we beat would check behind being unsure about their hand but with showdown value and only a made straight/flush or set will bet out behind your check.
 
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