$100 NLHE Full Ring: Should I be folding KK on the river in this spot?

[tofushit888]

Hey guys, hope everyone is doing well! I have an interesting hand scenario and would welcome any inputs.

This hand happened towards the end of the online session. We started with 8-handed but became 4-handed at the end.

Blinds: HKD5/10 (roughly US$0.65 / 1.30)

Hero: KsKc (stack of 270BB)
Villain also has a massive stack of 580BB

Early position folds and I raise to 30 on the button with my pocket Kings.

BB 3 bets to 90. I 4 bet back to 230. BB calls. So pot is now 465

Flop comes 4c 3c 9s. BB checks, I c-bet 238. BB calls. Pot is now 941

Turn comes 6d. BB checks again, I continue to bet 700. BB calls. Pot is now 2353

River comes As...BB leads out for 900... I had a super bad feeling about this river card as any Ace-flush draw just got there, but the price was kinda cheap to call...I didn't think he would have any sets as he would have check-raised flop or turn with his sets. I thought maybe he was turning some lower pair holding or missed club draw into a bluff..so I ended up making a crying call. and BB showed A-4 of diamond for two pair. GG

What would you do in my spot? Does the decision change if it wasn't 4-handed, lets say if the game was 6-handed or full ring 9 handed？ Just curious how others would play in this spot. Let me know if any of my preflop, flop, or turn actions need improvement.

If you want to watch the actual hand, feel free to check out my latest poker vlog:

Thanks a lot!

Cheers,

Lucas

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
With stacks this deep I think, you can make your 4-bet larger. The 22BB sizing is meant for 100BB games, where if you go much bigger, you kind of commit yourself to the pot, which mean, you can never be bluffing.

Flop
I like betting for value, and I have no problem with the half pot bet size either. Maybe solvers would suggest a smaller size, but I think, you are mainly targeting TT-QQ here, you are almost never beat, so lets get some money in, before a bad card rools off and kill our hand or action.

Turn
Pretty safe card and I like your big turn bet for the reasons already stated. He should have TT-QQ a lot here, and its going to be difficult for him to get away.

River
Not the card or action, we were hoping for, but he is giving you better than 3:1, so you only need to be good around 22% of the time. Also he should never really get there with AX other than AX of clubs, and you hold Kc in your hand, so he cant have AcKc. Which leave like AcQc, AcJc and maybe a few more combos, that could reasonably call your 4-bet out of position. I am not loving this spot at all, but I think, you have to close your eyes and pay the man his money.

Results
So he actually had A4 and flopped a weak pair. I think, if you make your 4-bet larger, then A4 probably goes away, and this annoying river situation is avoided all together. One might argue, that you got value from him until the river, and that is true. But against your very small 4-bet, he did actually not make a mathematical mistake by calling, and this is why, it need to be larger like 300 rather than just 230.

4-handed vs. 6-handed or 9-handed
As for your question, if the number of players change the situation, the answer is no. You opened on BTN, and then it makes no difference at all, how many players have already folded.

 

[300HPGOD]

I agree with Fundiver about the 4 bet. I think it not only needs to be larger so we avoid what wound up happening but also because we have a very strong hand with very deep stacks. the more you 4 bet to the more over time you will earn increased value. I like raising large for that reason alone. Villain has already 3 bet us (with a 3 bet bluff) so they are still likely to see a flop even when we go larger. That is what we want as the times we are betting here with KK we want to get called.

On the flop I think you should continue with the mindset that our hand is strong and we are deep so you should be better a little larger. I like larger than half as you made it especially with a few clubs on the board.

Turn card is a basic brick outside of some crazy 3 bet bluffs that it would take to have those hands. I like the larger sizing here as you did to charge draws and also the QQ and JJ hands that could have got to this spot.

River sucks and there is not much we can do about it. I will confess that I call this without too much thought and that is not the right thing to do. Its a good bluff if its being done but I think more often than not we are beat here. However, I would still be calling this (and its a leak) because there are times I just have to see it. In this case with the pot odds this good I am calling it because I would want to see what crazy Ax hand got to this point. From a strategic point of view I do think there is value seeing villains cards here which will give an indication to how they play. Paying 900 here might net more in the future since we get an insight into the villain.

 

[tofushit888]

Thanks Fundiver and 300HPGOD for the helpful analysis. Agree that my preflop raise should be much larger in this spot. Another reason behind my river call is that this particular player is capable of bluffing river cards that seem bad for the hero, so yeah, I have had some hand history with this player, which contributed to my call as well haha, it was just too cheap for me to fold. He sized it quite well... if the river bet was super large, I think I might have folded..

Thanks!

 

[gustav197poker]

I liked the preflop line. As played preflop and flop, I am looking an OTT overbet / jam. Realistically the most likely hand, wIth that we are losing, is a set of 9 (if the villain thinks we are a very wide range). Of course the villain might have some random hands that also beat, but they are less likely in a 4-bet pot. Also, given our effective stack and the board texture we now have approx 2.5x pot left, so we want the villain to think we have a narrow range, when in reality he may believe that we are polarizing our range and now we could to take this line with dominated draws like KcTc and KcQc for example. In that case we could get the maximum value with his best draws, since they will not have fold equity here. Sometimes we will lose, but at least when we win we will obtain the maximum value, when we polarize our range in specific situations like this for example.
Greetings.

 

[Sidetracked]

Given the price he's giving you, I think you have to call there.

 

[tofushit888]

@Gustav: Hmm overbet/jam on the turn is an interesting proposition but would that fold out too many hands in his range. But Iguess against this particular player, he could call me light even with a marginal hand if he thinks I am trying to maximize fold equity with something like K-10 suited or KQ suited (like you said)

@ Sidetracked: Yeah he gave me a really good price and milked me pretty good there haha

 

[gustav197poker]

@Gustav: Hmm overbet/jam on the turn is an interesting proposition but would that fold out too many hands in his range. But Iguess against this particular player, he could call me light even with a marginal hand if he thinks I am trying to maximize fold equity with something like K-10 suited or KQ suited (like you said)

@ Sidetracked: Yeah he gave me a really good price and milked me pretty good there haha

There is nothing wrong with getting a lot of worst-handed folds. That is the desired effect in this texture. You don't want villain to improve his draws on the river, with hands like A5 and 78. Those hands are more likely on V (or hero) when you min 4-bet. That's why I said I liked your preflop.
And if BB decides to continue in the race (BTN vs BB duel), you get the maximum EV when V's draws do not improve on the river. There are more hands that your rank defeats in equity versus those that have beaten you in this 4-bet pot. So by polarizing your OTT range the villain could call wider, for example with hands like: TT; JJ and even QQ who didn't dare to 5-bet preflop against a wide position like BTN, because he prefers to get more value postflop with your bluffs.

 

[tofushit888]

There is nothing wrong with getting a lot of worst-handed folds. That is the desired effect in this texture. You don't want villain to improve his draws on the river, with hands like A5 and 78. Those hands are more likely on V (or hero) when you min 4-bet. That's why I said I liked your preflop.
And if BB decides to continue in the race (BTN vs BB duel), you get the maximum EV when V's draws do not improve on the river. There are more hands that your rank defeats in equity versus those that have beaten you in this 4-bet pot. So by polarizing your OTT range the villain could call wider, for example with hands like: TT; JJ and even QQ who didn't dare to 5-bet preflop against a wide position like BTN, because he prefers to get more value postflop with your bluffs.

Gotcha, makes sense now! Thanks.