This is a discussion on €100 NLHE Full Ring: Profitable Shove with ATs? within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; HERO Raise to 3 AsTs from MP (Stack size 50)
VILLAIN Raise CO 6 (Stack Size 110)
Everyone Else Folds
HERO Bet 7
VILLAIN Raise 15
re: Poker & €100 NLHE Full Ring: Profitable Shove with ATs?
It is a board prone to lanterns, since the villain checks on the turn you take advantage of your range to finally show strength on the river.
The villain could wear AK and fold after your push.
It could also have AQ or JJ and you would be below.
In the worst case, I could have QT or some hidden set, maybe if it were very random.
I don't think he has a smaller pair than T-T.
It could be below you with KT; JT
If it were too loose, I could play 4-5.
Basically you have approximately 50% chance of winning and you have already placed approximately 60% of your stack in this hand.
So it could be a long-term profitable move if you had the Q.
I think in this case you are a little below its range, but I think it is a profitable opportunity to try to take the pot, only if you think this player is aggressive and loose to play. Otherwise the push would not be profitable in the long term.
Calling an undersized 3-bet with ATs is definitely reasonable even out of position. I am not loving it, but for this price you gotta put in the money and see a flop.
Why are you donk betting (leading) the flop? Yes you flopped TPTK, but if he has, what he is representing by 3-betting, it does not really change anything, because then he has an overpair. JJ, QQ, KK, AA are a big part of his range. He could have AK, AQ as well, but then he is just going to fold, so you win nothing extra. Checking to the preflop raiser is the only play, that should ever be made here.
Checking the turn is definitely the right play, I see no reason to donk bet again. He checked back, that is great, maybe he was bluffing, and now he is looking to give up. I see no reason to jam the river. You should check again and probably check-fold, if he jam. AQ got there, so now you pretty much only beat AK and a complete bluff.
All that being said this guy look like a goofball. Silly undersized 3-bet preflop, and then he makes another silly mini-raise on the flop but check back turn, when you check. So I am not really quite sure, what story he is telling here. It seem to me, he might just be goofing around with some silly nonsense and clicking buttons. But that does not mean, you can jam the river for value. If he have some kind of missed draw or AK high, he is not going to call you with that.
I'm not sure you played any street correctly. You def shouldn't be shoving the river.
I'm assuming this is live?
Thank U 4 Posting.
We all would welcome some details to go with your statements especially from a coach.
I agree with your statements completely. Perhaps one or too quick points on why not to do what was done may help us all.