$100 NLHE Full Ring: Fold or Call check-raise all-in on the turn

[tofushit888]

Hey guys, just want to get some opinions about the following hand.

8 Handed
Blinds: HKD5/10

UTG raises to 30, I wake up with pocket Kings in +1 position and 3 bet to 150. Folds to SB player who calls the 150 and UTG also calls. So pot is now 460

Flop comes Q-2-2 rainbow. SB and UTG both check and I c-bet for 200. SB folds and UTG calls. so pot is now 860

Turn is a 7. UTG checks again and I bet 600. UTG then check-raises all in... I have around 1200-1400 behind. I thought about folding cuz this player is pretty tight but given the odds, I made the call and he showed pocket 7s for a turned set

Given this kind of sequence and stack size, do you think the turn could have been a fold...?

Thanks!

 

[John A]

Bet sizing is crazy large considering the flop texture and your opponent's range. You have him absolutely crushed. Is this your normal sizing w/ air and made hands on the turn? Seems pretty insane to me, even live. Flop c-bet is really large to in a 3-bet pot.

In spot where you have your opponents range crushed and your opponent is tight, a turn bet is fine, because you won't get them to bluff enough on the river into you. Your sizing on the turn though kind of forces him into a decision w/ Qx and makes your decision much harder. If you had bet a more normal amount for these stakes of like 270$ish on the turn, then your opponent can call with nearly his entire range, but when you bet that much and he's OOP you widen his shoving range. I'm probably still folding considering the read, even though the combos he has you beat with are only a couple. It's probably one of those rare spots you can make an exploitative read fold.

 

[300HPGOD]

Pre flop imo is fine either 4 or 5x, in game I usually 5x a 3x raiser as you did here so I think the sizing could be debatable by some but for whatever my opinion is worth I like it. The flop is a pretty dry board obviously and I dont see a lot of 2x in anyones range even SB. Therefore we are dependent on someone having a Q but that works both ways. To me, betting 150 or betting even half pot here will get similar results because the only hands that should be continuing are pairs like 1010, 99 etc and Qx. If either villain does not have those then they are folding to a c bet. I would have sized it similar to what you did for that reason and made it more than a third but less than half. If the board was still dry but more hands that could have hit someone like say flops with a Q and J in them then I do like going smaller more around 1/3rd pot.

On the turn we should decide here to we want to play for stacks or not. That comes down to what type of villain are we against. You said they were tight but is that pre, post or both? If they are not station-esque we wont get stacks from a one pair villain hand. If they calling often then I say we go for stacks here. Once we decide to go for stacks or not then the bet sizing does itself. If not going for stacks then I like betting 300-350 to try to get Qx to continue. If we are playing for the river shove then make it 400-500.

As played it will depend on the villain but with the bet sizing that has already occurred I would be calling getting a price of (assuming he covers you) 2 to 1. Are they bluffing, probably not but I also dont think they would play aces this way either but could have. So this is Qx with QQ being included. I would not think villain would call pre with 77 since the raise was 5x and then they would also have to peel the flop (depends on the tightness you mention). So in my mind I would think there is only one hand that is really logical that beats me and I just wouldnt think they would have it enough. This is villain dependent though, if you dont think they would do this with AQ and they are tight post flop and passive post flop then that changes this to a fold. My default here though would be to call.

 

[tofushit888]

Bet sizing is crazy large considering the flop texture and your opponent's range. You have him absolutely crushed. Is this your normal sizing w/ air and made hands on the turn? Seems pretty insane to me, even live. Flop c-bet is really large to in a 3-bet pot.

In spot where you have your opponents range crushed and your opponent is tight, a turn bet is fine, because you won't get them to bluff enough on the river into you. Your sizing on the turn though kind of forces him into a decision w/ Qx and makes your decision much harder. If you had bet a more normal amount for these stakes of like 270$ish on the turn, then your opponent can call with nearly his entire range, but when you bet that much and he's OOP you widen his shoving range. I'm probably still folding considering the read, even though the combos he has you beat with are only a couple. It's probably one of those rare spots you can make an exploitative read fold.

Thanks John for the feedbacks above. The c-bet sizing is a bit larger than usual due to the nature of our game, people tend to call c-bets very light haha so I decided to go with a bigger size.

Agree with you that my turn sizing could be smaller to give myself more flexibility. The villain is a tight player in general but I have also seen him try to use his tight image to run insane bluffs, so it was a tricky situation. As you mentioned, there aren't that many combos that beat my hand, but then again, there are also no obvious bluff combos either. Given he check-raised all in after I bet 600, I think I could have folded exploitatively

 

[tofushit888]

Pre flop imo is fine either 4 or 5x, in game I usually 5x a 3x raiser as you did here so I think the sizing could be debatable by some but for whatever my opinion is worth I like it. The flop is a pretty dry board obviously and I dont see a lot of 2x in anyones range even SB. Therefore we are dependent on someone having a Q but that works both ways. To me, betting 150 or betting even half pot here will get similar results because the only hands that should be continuing are pairs like 1010, 99 etc and Qx. If either villain does not have those then they are folding to a c bet. I would have sized it similar to what you did for that reason and made it more than a third but less than half. If the board was still dry but more hands that could have hit someone like say flops with a Q and J in them then I do like going smaller more around 1/3rd pot.

On the turn we should decide here to we want to play for stacks or not. That comes down to what type of villain are we against. You said they were tight but is that pre, post or both? If they are not station-esque we wont get stacks from a one pair villain hand. If they calling often then I say we go for stacks here. Once we decide to go for stacks or not then the bet sizing does itself. If not going for stacks then I like betting 300-350 to try to get Qx to continue. If we are playing for the river shove then make it 400-500.

As played it will depend on the villain but with the bet sizing that has already occurred I would be calling getting a price of (assuming he covers you) 2 to 1. Are they bluffing, probably not but I also dont think they would play aces this way either but could have. So this is Qx with QQ being included. I would not think villain would call pre with 77 since the raise was 5x and then they would also have to peel the flop (depends on the tightness you mention). So in my mind I would think there is only one hand that is really logical that beats me and I just wouldnt think they would have it enough. This is villain dependent though, if you dont think they would do this with AQ and they are tight post flop and passive post flop then that changes this to a fold. My default here though would be to call.

Thanks for the analysis above! I would say this villain is quite tight post flop so I think I definitely could have folded the turn. I didn't think he would have QQ or AA in that spot as he would have 4-bet pre given SB called. The 2 also doesnt hit any of their ranges, as you said above. My decision really just came down to whether I believe he has 77 or bluff haha, But given this player profile, I could have made an exploitative fold for sure. Tough situation!!!