$100 NLHE 6-max: Super MUBSy river check, what hands can call tho?

[c0rnBr34d]

PokerStars - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 94.65 BB
UTG: 330.49 BB
Hero (MP): 202.54 BB
CO: 112.39 BB
BTN: 48 BB
SB: 228.18 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A:spade: K:heart:

fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, CO calls 2.5 BB, fold, SB raises to 21 BB, fold, Hero raises to 50 BB, fold, SB calls 29 BB

Flop: (103.5 BB, 2 players) 3:spade: A:club: 7:heart:
SB bets 39 BB, Hero calls 39 BB

Turn: (181.5 BB, 2 players) K:spade:
SB checks, Hero checks

River: (181.5 BB, 2 players) 9:club:
SB bets 50 BB, Hero calls 50 BB

Maybe I was playing too many tables but this river did not seem worth a value raise in the moment. I don't remember everything from the hand but it summed up to something like: "V either has air or a monster, and I'm only getting value from A9 here as I expect other two pair hands to barrel turn". Having the Ace of spades made the turn feel like a good trap x/back to induce. Do we just have to raise this river anyways to allow V to make a mistake and expose the rest of our stack since there are so few combos ahead of us? In a 4 bet pot I think we never have bluffs here so V can play perfectly but maybe I'm leveling myself.

 

[LevySystem]

PokerStars - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 94.65 BB
UTG: 330.49 BB
Hero (MP): 202.54 BB
CO: 112.39 BB
BTN: 48 BB
SB: 228.18 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A♠ K♥

fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, CO calls 2.5 BB, fold, SB raises to 21 BB, fold, Hero raises to 50 BB, fold, SB calls 29 BB

Flop: (103.5 BB, 2 players) 3♠ A♣ 7♥
SB bets 39 BB, Hero calls 39 BB

Turn: (181.5 BB, 2 players) K♠
SB checks, Hero checks

River: (181.5 BB, 2 players) 9♣
SB bets 50 BB, Hero calls 50 BB

Maybe I was playing too many tables but this river did not seem worth a value raise in the moment. I don't remember everything from the hand but it summed up to something like: "V either has air or a monster, and I'm only getting value from A9 here as I expect other two pair hands to barrel turn". Having the Ace of spades made the turn feel like a good trap x/back to induce. Do we just have to raise this river anyways to allow V to make a mistake and expose the rest of our stack since there are so few combos ahead of us? In a 4 bet pot I think we never have bluffs here so V can play perfectly but maybe I'm leveling myself.

His preflop sizing is intersting to me. It seems pretty big. I supose we don't have any reads on V? Given the sizing of his 3bet (wich will lead to a Spr close to a regular 4betpot) I would call AKo pre. Alltough if you felt he is out of line/fishy I like your play.
VS unkwon I would supose it's usually on the stronger side.
Postflop his sizings/ aggresion seem weird to me. He proceeds to donk lead into the 5bet aggressor for roughly 35% pot. Now usually stronger players would not do that. They would respect the uncapped preflop aggressors range and if they had the initiative they would size small to increase playability over multiple streets since the board favors the uncapped range so much.

That being said I like your postflop line. River is allways a Jam for me since as you stated there is very few combos out there that beat us and given the litle hints we picket up I would lean towards V being on the weaker side, therefore getting value from a wider range.

 

[Sidetracked]

I don't mind your call on the river.

From the hands that you've posted, I think that you seem to assign villains a very rational way of thinking about poker. You think that way, and you base your play of each hand on the assumption that they do too.

That is all well and good, but a lot of the times people play in sub optimal ways and ways that defy rational logic.

You are clearly a good player, but from your hands posted it does seem as if you are forgoing some value by applying thinking that gives other players too much credit.

Are we allowed to know what villain's hand was?

 

[Alucard]

I'm very likely flatting pre tbh. don't like that sizing at all 200BB eff. When he checks turn can safely assume we are good

 

[300HPGOD]

I like calling pre flop instead of 4 betting as we have position with a hand that could flop well and we dont have a made hand yet. What are we doing when he 5 bets there? I would hate to be calling in that spot and hate to be folding in that spot so I would rather see the flop in position with a hand I like in a pot that is probably too big already.

On the flop, villain does a weird lead here since he is leading into a 4 bettor. I am not sure why you would do that if you are very strong so I am already thinking they have something like QQ, JJ, 1010 where they are afraid of it. I like the call behind as I think a raise just folds out stuff we beat and I dont think he could be drawing to anything at this point other than a 2 outer.

The turn vindicates what I am thinking about the flop. I think we can bet here but not really sure what we get called by that would have not bet to lead here. Checking back is the better play because it gives villain a chance to bluff on the river and give them hope that their non Ax or Kx hands have a chance.

On the river you are missing potential value. I say potential because I am not sure they call with anything here but it is worth trying. Maybe they make a mistake and I dont see what could be beating us here. Very outside chance of 99 here but I think they would just jam the river if they had that and there are only two kings and two aces left to beat us. Cant see a world where they have 33 or 77 based on they shouldnt have that and their bet sizing on later streets. We checked the turn here hoping villain would make a play like this so we have to try to get all out of it that we can. We have 113 BB or so heading to the river and villain bets 50 of those. We need to be putting the other 63 in and hoping villain feels like they priced themselves in already and feel like they have to call. They probably dont call but I dont see a reason not to try to get these extra 63 BB when the hand combinations that are left that beat us and miniscule.

 

[c0rnBr34d]

I agree his pre flop sizing was aggressive. There are a handful of players in the pool that do this, almost exclusively when someone has flatted the PFR and there is dead money in the pot. Only 13 hands on V so I made the decision to 4 bet based on population tendencies of other players that use this sizing to punish capped ranges. I can certainly understand flatting here in position but it also should be noted that we aren't closing the action and while the large 3 bet is likely to get it heads up, sometimes we will now lose absolute position and go three ways if we decide to flat. I would probably be more likely to flat AKs but with AKo I thought there was a decent chance this was a marginal hand or even a stronger hand that we have dominated trying to steal without seeing a flop.

I also agree that river has to be a jam in general. As mentioned in the moment I may have overthought things but it just felt like I wouldn't get called by a weaker hand often at all and given we had no reads I was also really curious to see what V was holding. Maybe I'm making further excuses but isn't there some value in getting to see the hand to make a better read on an unknown only 13 hands into a session?

I'll share result tomorrow since they've been requested.

 

[gustav197poker]

At that size of raise in preflop I go all-in in a live game. Online I prefer to flatten with 200bb. Although our post-flop playability does get a bit reduced, our hand retains some bluffing possibilities for an unbalanced villain who likes to raise big. On the other hand, in many other board configurations we will want to have an appropriate SPR to avoid critical points.
On the river I agree to call only. Possibly the villain showed some dominated hand, but that's not the right reason to justify a push now. The reason is his disproportionate raise size preflop and then his donk 4-bet flop. I think that if I respect a player preflop, I will respect him again in the river as well.
Greetings.

 

[c0rnBr34d]

Are we allowed to know what villain's hand was?

Spoiler

SB shows Q♠ 8♥ (High Card, Ace)
(Pre 33%, Flop 2%, Turn 0%)
Hero shows A♠ K♥ (Two Pair, Aces and Kings)
(Pre 67%, Flop 98%, Turn 100%)
Hero wins 278.5 BB
Rake paid 3 BB

So I'm pretty sure we got the max this particular hand and I got to make a note on V but unfortunately he busted and did not re-buy before I could get into another good pot with him. Then I was debating whether it was better to flat and see those cards since he was obviously folding to any raise on the river. Because now I have the note if we ever see him again. You're correct though. Without reads we may get some fish to stack off with Ax or something and we will very rarely run into a set. It's hard to really know the frequency of any of these to compare EV though.

 

[Sidetracked]

Spoiler

SB shows Q♠ 8♥ (High Card, Ace)
(Pre 33%, Flop 2%, Turn 0%)
Hero shows A♠ K♥ (Two Pair, Aces and Kings)
(Pre 67%, Flop 98%, Turn 100%)
Hero wins 278.5 BB
Rake paid 3 BB

So I'm pretty sure we got the max this particular hand and I got to make a note on V but unfortunately he busted and did not re-buy before I could get into another good pot with him. Then I was debating whether it was better to flat and see those cards since he was obviously folding to any raise on the river. Because now I have the note if we ever see him again. You're correct though. Without reads we may get some fish to stack off with Ax or something and we will very rarely run into a set. It's hard to really know the frequency of any of these to compare EV though.

I will never cease to be amazed at what some of these guys turn over. Calling off 50 BB preflop with that hand out of position is just mind boggling...

 

[John A]

This hand just reeks of donk play. From the pre-flop sizing, to the donking into a 4-bettor on an A high flop. To the river bet... I'd honestly min raise this river, and expect to be called by worse. Sometimes you just have to recognize these signs and play outside of your normal approach. This is one of those hands.

Edit - and I see you posted results... yeah... even worse than I thought. I was putting him on some kind of gapped connector or garbage ace.