$100 NLHE 6-max: Second guessing another passive line

[c0rnBr34d]

Only 20 hands with V so no reads but he IS showing 60/15 so far and playing a short stack. Should I just raise / get it in on the turn here? Any way we can call turn and then fold river?


PokerStars - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 43.51 BB
UTG: 449.92 BB
Hero (MP): 153.73 BB
CO: 112.98 BB
BTN: 100 BB
SB: 125.92 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T:heart: T:diamond:

fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (5.5 BB, 2 players) 3:diamond: 2:heart: 5:spade:
BB checks, Hero bets 3 BB, BB calls 3 BB
Seems standard.

Turn: (11.5 BB, 2 players) 7:heart:
BB bets 5.46 BB, Hero calls 5.46 BB
This turn donk was unexpected. Initially I wanted to raise but I felt like he's still wide enough to fold a lot of his junk. He could be naming his own price on a draw but he's OOP and will have to lead or give up on the river. I decided to keep in his draws and bluffs and just call. Not sure what a solver would do and I didn't feel like 20 hands provided enough reads to auto pile it in.

River: (22.42 BB, 2 players) K:spade:
BB bets 21.3 BB, Hero ???
Obviously not ideal. I think he has enough 4x, 7x, and missed hearts to balance the straights, two pair, and Kx though. With limited reads it seems like a decent enough bluff catch. Standard call?

 

[gustav197poker]

We definitely can't trust the sample of hands we have in V. I think I would play it the same way as you. It is reasonable to beat the standard of 1/3 cbet on the flop, because we need to optimize the extraction of middle values ​​for this board. Then on the turn, villain is helping us recover all his preflop combos that could have 3-bet from his position: J-7s; 6-6; 7-8s. He could also now balance his BB defense range, with some random combos such as: 5-7s; 6-4s and 8-6s. Blocking flush draws combos is not optimal here, because our Th puts us back in the low structure of this board, which benefits villain more than us.
On the river the K is almost neutral for us. When blocking KT, the combos that defeat us are fundamentally K6s and K7s (5c). If we add 5-7s and 6-4s we have a total of 11 combos that defeat us. On this river we need 32.76% to be break even. If we get 6 combos in rank V that we can beat, our call will be + EV in the long term. And I think we can cover this margin with 7-8s; J-7s; 6-6 and 6-8s.
Greetings.

 

[fundiver199]

I think, this is very read dependent. Your hand is basically a bluff catcher, and against many recreational players its probably ok to call turn and fold river. Playing 60% of hands he can certainly have a straight or a random two pair, and is he really bluffing often enough, maybe / maybe not.

Him sizing up on the river is a little weird though. Did the K help him, does he think, it helped you, or did he miss, and now we wants you to fold? Difficult to say, whats going on, when someone is bad enough to play 60% of hands in a 100NL game. Even though it was only over 20 hands, VPIP and PFR are the first numbers to converge, and this guy is certainly not shaping up to be a nit.

 

[Sidetracked]

I think I'm putting him in on the turn and simplifying the hand. Also avoiding weird and awkward river spots like the one that happened.

 

[c0rnBr34d]

I think, this is very read dependent.

Unfortunately we don't really have reads. Sounds like you're leaning call turn fold river readless though?

I think I'm putting him in on the turn and simplifying the hand. Also avoiding weird and awkward river spots like the one that happened.

Yea I've taken this like tons of times live. It seems like pressing the easy button in position but I'm not sure it's the most +EV. If we jam turn I think we mostly get called by hands that have us crushed and mostly fold out hands we want to continue to put in money. We avoid awkward spots but we set ourselves up to win the minimum and lose the max a lot.

 

[fundiver199]

Unfortunately we don't really have reads. Sounds like you're leaning call turn fold river readless though?

I dont know. If he had bet smaller, i would say, it was an easy call, because then I could also see him kind of blocker betting a hand like a 7. But when he bet almost pot, it does become a lot more polarized. I am not even sure, a K always bet this size, so its probably either 2 pair/set/straight or absolutely nothing. Having a heart is kind of bad, because it block his most obvious busted draw. So maybe fold 88-QQ with hearts and call those without?

If we jam turn I think we mostly get called by hands that have us crushed and mostly fold out hands we want to continue to put in money. We avoid awkward spots but we set ourselves up to win the minimum and lose the max a lot.

Jamming turn would be for almost 2 x the pot, which does seem a bit over the top. But maybe we can actually make a small raise for value like 15BB or so. If he just call and check to us on the river, we can check back and get to a cheaper showdown, and if he 3-bet jam on the turn, I think, we can fold.