$100 NLHE 6-max: Raised OTT by passive winning reg after UTG open and barrel

[c0rnBr34d]

PokerStars - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 105.82 BB
SB: 124.2 BB
BB: 118.22 BB
Hero (UTG): 121.27 BB
MP: 134.96 BB
CO: 88.37 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K♦ Q♣

Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, CO calls 2.5 BB, BTN calls 2.5 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (9 BB, 3 players) 3♠ 6♥ Q♥
Hero bets 4.28 BB, CO calls 4.28 BB, BTN calls 4.28 BB

Turn: (21.84 BB, 3 players) J♦
Hero bets 11 BB, CO raises to 24 BB, fold, fold


2.3k hands on V and stats are fairly passive when it comes to 3 bets and post flop but win rate is 22 BB / 100 over that sample. I haven't been studying his game per se and I'm back to 8 tables currently so if he's getting out of line I may miss something but this spot felt super valuey and being OOP I opted to make a nitty fold here. I felt like hands like KThh would raise larger to have some fold equity. He's also raising into an uncapped UTG range that hits this board fairly often and a double barrel. The math and relative hand strength says call but the action and stats say I'm mostly hoping to chop. Felt really hard to fold for this price though. Should I be calling down non heart / Ace rivers here? Given his 3B stat I think he definitely has AQ in his range here maybe a couple slow played over pair combos, QJ, JJ, 33, and 66 for value. It's also possible we have the same hand but I'm really not interested in playing a big pot OOP only to chop it.

Overall:
VP 28 / PR 17 / 3B 3 / AF 1

This Session (15 Hands):
VP 33.3 / PR 6.6 / 3B 0-8 / AF 1

 

[LevySystem]

PokerStars - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 105.82 BB
SB: 124.2 BB
BB: 118.22 BB
Hero (UTG): 121.27 BB
MP: 134.96 BB
CO: 88.37 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K♦ Q♣

Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, CO calls 2.5 BB, BTN calls 2.5 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (9 BB, 3 players) 3♠ 6♥ Q♥
Hero bets 4.28 BB, CO calls 4.28 BB, BTN calls 4.28 BB

Turn: (21.84 BB, 3 players) J♦
Hero bets 11 BB, CO raises to 24 BB, fold, fold


2.3k hands on V and stats are fairly passive when it comes to 3 bets and post flop but win rate is 22 BB / 100 over that sample. I haven't been studying his game per se and I'm back to 8 tables currently so if he's getting out of line I may miss something but this spot felt super valuey and being OOP I opted to make a nitty fold here. I felt like hands like KThh would raise larger to have some fold equity. He's also raising into an uncapped UTG range that hits this board fairly often and a double barrel. The math and relative hand strength says call but the action and stats say I'm mostly hoping to chop. Felt really hard to fold for this price though. Should I be calling down non heart / Ace rivers here? Given his 3B stat I think he definitely has AQ in his range here maybe a couple slow played over pair combos, QJ, JJ, 33, and 66 for value. It's also possible we have the same hand but I'm really not interested in playing a big pot OOP only to chop it.

Overall:
VP 28 / PR 17 / 3B 3 / AF 1

This Session (15 Hands):
VP 33.3 / PR 6.6 / 3B 0-8 / AF 1

Very nice fold indeed in my opinion vs that AF. Alltough 2.3k isnt huge for postflopstats. AKo+AKs+JJ+ / AKo+AQs+QQ is 3% and 2.9% 3betrange. So he has a ton of value in his range. And with that AF alltough the sample id say he plays fit or fold. For preflop stats you have a pretty decent sample. I wouldnt look much in to WR because 22bb/100 could also mean -2bb/100. Especially if it is regtables and he is bumhunting.

 

[Collin Moshman]

I like how you played this hand. When a passive player puts in a late street raise multi-way, particularly after you've shown a lot of strength, it will be rare that he's bluffing. I think if you take this hand to showdown you're going to get shown top two or a low set very often.

So this is a nice turn fold.

 

[gustav197poker]

I'm sorry to disagree with a great professional like Collin Moshman, but I think you're aiming for a piece of value very fine in the range of the villain. You are playing against the CO + the BTN, but finally the last player has not shown enough action to consider it on the turn. And in this texture OTT, the villain's raise range favors his Jxs combos that block important hands from your range like AK; AJ; QJ; TT; JJ. And they can take down combos of hero like: 77-99 + Q7s; Q8s; Q9s. Even considering your great sample it's acceptable that a passive regular could limp from preflop, the hands like QJo and AQs that are 8 combos, because the AQo should raise them preflop, like a blocker of high hands. On the other hand, 3-3 and 6-6 should be protected with a little more force than 2x, especially if we are talking about a passive player. He will want to offset his inverse probabilities that you will complete a draw.
Greetings.

 

[c0rnBr34d]

I'm sorry to disagree with a great professional like Collin Moshman, but I think you're aiming for a piece of value very fine in the range of the villain. You are playing against the CO + the BTN, but finally the last player has not shown enough action to consider it on the turn. And in this texture OTT, the villain's raise range favors his Jxs combos that block important hands from your range like AK; AJ; QJ; TT; JJ. And they can take down combos of hero like: 77-99 + Q7s; Q8s; Q9s. Even considering your great sample it's acceptable that a passive regular could limp from preflop, the hands like QJo and AQs that are 8 combos, because the AQo should raise them preflop, like a blocker of high hands. On the other hand, 3-3 and 6-6 should be protected with a little more force than 2x, especially if we are talking about a passive player. He will want to offset his inverse probabilities that you will complete a draw.
Greetings.

Thank you for challenging the previous posts. I did find it very curious what hand would want to raise to such a small amount on this turn into two players including the PFR. Certainly, whatever hand V has wants to play a big pot so I would expect to see a strong hand with blockers or a super strong combo draw (probably also with blockers).

Also, with a 3B this narrow though it's hard to know how balanced it will be. I tend to think that the more narrow the range is, the less balanced and more value heavy it will be. But even if we exclude AQs and include AQo as you've suggested if we look at a range of QQ+, AQo+, AKs that's already 2.56% of combos. And given we have opened from UTG we should expect that Vs 3B range will narrow at least slightly as they should be putting in more 3B vs late position raises than UTG raises and the overall average is 3%. So even after we eliminate all of those AQo combos as you suggest, which portion of Vs range wants to make a small raise on the turn with 3 players still in the hand? The aggression factor dictates that this is rarely a standard draw and the sizing doesn't make much sense either. So what do you think V has here that we can beat? You suggest he has Jx with blockers but if he's willing to raise here with second pair and blockers on the turn into two players (one of them being the PFR who double barrelled) then I think Vs aggression factor would be more than 1. So you are suggesting V is out of line vs his normal play and is making a move here in between two players with a marginal hand like AhJx. If this is true then it was an excellent play by him and as he does it more often his stats will move and we will have to defend wider. But for now it seemed very optimistic to think we were ahead.

Lastly, what do you suggest we do as played? Call? Raise? If we call, then what rivers can we call down? If we raise then how do we respond to a call or a re-raise?

 

[gustav197poker]

Thank you for challenging the previous posts. I did find it very curious what hand would want to raise to such a small amount on this turn into two players including the PFR. Certainly, whatever hand V has wants to play a big pot so I would expect to see a strong hand with blockers or a super strong combo draw (probably also with blockers).

Also, with a 3B this narrow though it's hard to know how balanced it will be. I tend to think that the more narrow the range is, the less balanced and more value heavy it will be. But even if we exclude AQs and include AQo as you've suggested if we look at a range of QQ+, AQo+, AKs that's already 2.56% of combos. And given we have opened from UTG we should expect that Vs 3B range will narrow at least slightly as they should be putting in more 3B vs late position raises than UTG raises and the overall average is 3%. So even after we eliminate all of those AQo combos as you suggest, which portion of Vs range wants to make a small raise on the turn with 3 players still in the hand? The aggression factor dictates that this is rarely a standard draw and the sizing doesn't make much sense either. So what do you think V has here that we can beat? You suggest he has Jx with blockers but if he's willing to raise here with second pair and blockers on the turn into two players (one of them being the PFR who double barrelled) then I think Vs aggression factor would be more than 1. So you are suggesting V is out of line vs his normal play and is making a move here in between two players with a marginal hand like AhJx. If this is true then it was an excellent play by him and as he does it more often his stats will move and we will have to defend wider. But for now it seemed very optimistic to think we were ahead.

Lastly, what do you suggest we do as played? Call? Raise? If we call, then what rivers can we call down? If we raise then how do we respond to a call or a re-raise?

That's exactly what I think, that the villain being a regular and competent player can pivot his AF in this 3-way pot, taking into account that there are draws to load and the BTN has shown little strength in its continuation range.
Considering the size of the sample, I assume that the deviations will be smaller, but a good player must step out of line in certain scenarios like this for example.
As I said on the turn, the texture impacts the Jxs to a greater extent. Also we don't lock any flush nuts, which means that the semi bluff V range should be extended a bit more.
I honestly don't know how to play the river because we haven't gotten there, but I think anything other than an ace; J; T is acceptable to defend.

 

[LevySystem]

That's exactly what I think, that the villain being a regular and competent player can pivot his AF in this 3-way pot, taking into account that there are draws to load and the BTN has shown little strength in its continuation range.
Considering the size of the sample, I assume that the deviations will be smaller, but a good player must step out of line in certain scenarios like this for example..

But were do you get the idea from that he actually is a competent player?

Statistically speaking there is far more loosers in the game than winners. And with those preflopstats over 2.3k hands I dont think he is a player that is hard to play against. Not saying hes a whale, but certanly a better fish or weak regular.
I dont know how loose you can be at nl100 considering the rake, but 28/17/3 is not a strong style imo.

He likes to play small Pots IP, his 3bet wont be balanced and with that AF, if he shows signs of aggresion, he usually has it. Especially minclick IP vs 2. I dont think V would play his draws aggresivly IP, this is just against the nature of his style - Hit big vs very bad players.

 

[gustav197poker]

But were do you get the idea from that he actually is a competent player?

Statistically speaking there is far more loosers in the game than winners. And with those preflopstats over 2.3k hands I dont think he is a player that is hard to play against. Not saying hes a whale, but certanly a better fish or weak regular.
I dont know how loose you can be at nl100 considering the rake, but 28/17/3 is not a strong style imo.

He likes to play small Pots IP, his 3bet wont be balanced and with that AF, if he shows signs of aggresion, he usually has it. Especially minclick IP vs 2. I dont think V would play his draws aggresivly IP, this is just against the nature of his style - Hit big vs very bad players.

Thanks for your intervention Levy. What you say makes sense, I respect your opinion. Now consider my thinking. The CO check OOP regarding BTN in PF said villain pays. Then OTF happens the same. Finally on the turn and after having obtained a second scale value (or bluff, but with some relevant blocker) dominated by the Qxs (being x in this case = T; 9; 8; etc) we seek to eject 2 from the pot players.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think this is based on an instinctive decision. Based on the fact that we don't want to showdown with a dominated value. We can improve our OTT way. And also it is necessary to do it, when our line is perceived weak.
Now if we attack we can build a great fold equity, since the UTG player will perceive a super strong value in CO, because that min click denotes a very good value. And on the other side the player in BTN will have a very difficult decision, because basically his perceived rank will definitely be at a disadvantage.

 

[LevySystem]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think this is based on an instinctive decision. Based on the fact that we don't want to showdown with a dominated value. We can improve our OTT way. And also it is necessary to do it, when our line is perceived weak.
Now if we attack we can build a great fold equity, since the UTG player will perceive a super strong value in CO, because that min click denotes a very good value. And on the other side the player in BTN will have a very difficult decision, because basically his perceived rank will definitely be at a disadvantage.

I see your point. Maybe my thinking is to static considering im playing zoom mostly, therefore have to deal with less info.

So your thoughtprocess makes sense, but we need some read to back that up i think. Or we are just guessing into the blue. As we are dealing with incomplete information we must try and rely on assumtions that have a high probability of being right or we might fall for the trap of overreading V. I think this could be a spot were we could try and rely on the concept of "levels of thinking".

https://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy/psychology/multiple-level-thinking/

how do you think V would approach an minclick Bluffrange in that spot, assuming he had a sense of balance?

 

[gustav197poker]

I see your point. Maybe my thinking is to static considering im playing zoom mostly, therefore have to deal with less info.

So your thoughtprocess makes sense, but we need some read to back that up i think. Or we are just guessing into the blue. As we are dealing with incomplete information we must try and rely on assumtions that have a high probability of being right or we might fall for the trap of overreading V. I think this could be a spot were we could try and rely on the concept of "levels of thinking".

https://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy/psychology/multiple-level-thinking/

how do you think V would approach an minclick Bluffrange in that spot, assuming he had a sense of balance?

It depends a lot on the complete sequence of play. The observed showdowns, the readings that the villain may have, etc. But generally any Ahx; Khx could press on this turn, to find the pot quickly, because on the river they will be unbalanced with the hero line + the marginal equity that BTN is denying with their calling range, apparently neutralizing the small scales of the board. Last issue that seriously damages, not so much the hero rank but has a greater negative impact on the CO bluffs (because it blocks them). So it is necessary for CO to avoid passive interferences that OTR could lead to a substantial improvement of the small values ​​assigned to the BTN range.

 

[c0rnBr34d]

Thanks for sharing insights guys. I do think it's possible V could have some spew here but I couldn't make sense of it and the read I went with was value. I still think this is the most EV decision but do not think calling would be a large mistake. Playing the river OOP would be interesting though.

And speaking of interesting, take a look at what this same V did last night! I seriously considered folding KK pre to his cold 5 bet jam! I went into the time bank and even used the chat which I almost never do. He later said he was praying I had AK... so this guy does have some major leaks in his game that we need to keep an eye on.


PokerStars - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 354.8 BB
Hero (SB): 128.74 BB
BB: 94 BB
UTG: 62.66 BB
MP: 114.26 BB
CO: 40 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB, CO posts penalty blind 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.5 BB) Hero has K:club: K:spade:

fold, MP raises to 3 BB, CO calls 2 BB, BTN raises to 15 BB, Hero raises to 38 BB, BB raises to 94 BB and is all-in, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 56 BB

Flop: (209 BB, 2 players) 8:heart: K:heart: 4:club:

Turn: (209 BB, 2 players) 8:spade:

River: (209 BB, 2 players) 3:heart:

Spoiler

Hero shows K:club: K:spade: (Full House, Kings full of Eights)
(Pre 81%, Flop 96%, Turn 100%)
BB shows Q:diamond: Q:heart: (Two Pair, Queens and Eights)
(Pre 19%, Flop 4%, Turn 0%)
Hero wins 206 BB
Rake paid 3 BB