$100 NLHE 6-max: Line check, flopped boat. Cooler?

[c0rnBr34d]

V is VP 38 / PR 9 / 3B 3 over 91 hands.
Hero is VP 20 / PR 15 / 3B 5 over 86 hands.

PokerStars - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 154.58 BB
BB: 61.84 BB
UTG: 130.21 BB
Hero (CO): 150.77 BB
BTN: 330.92 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 9♣ 9♦

UTG calls 1 BB, Hero raises to 4 BB, BTN calls 4 BB, fold, fold, UTG calls 3 BB

Flop: (13.5 BB, 3 players) 9♠ A♦ A♠
UTG checks, Hero bets 4 BB, fold, UTG calls 4 BB

Turn: (21.5 BB, 2 players) 2♠
UTG checks, Hero bets 10 BB, UTG calls 10 BB

River: (41.5 BB, 2 players) K♠
UTG bets 19.71 BB, Hero raises to 80 BB, UTG raises to 112.21 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 32.21 BB
There's no way I can flat here right? He can be betting trips and flushes and 22 for value.

Spoiler

UTG shows K♥ A♥ (Full House, Aces full of Kings)
(Pre 48%, Flop 23%, Turn 16%)
Hero shows 9♣ 9♦ (Full House, Nines full of Aces)
(Pre 52%, Flop 77%, Turn 84%)
UTG wins 262.92 BB
Rake paid 3 BB

I was more worried about A2 than AK. How did this guy limp call AKhh pre?

 

[Edu1]

"Cooler?"

I think yes. Villain in UTG played very strange with this AK, hard to put him in this type of hand
but your raise river is too big, 80BB! you could save 60BB...

"There's no way I can flat here right?"

in my opinion is not about flat call or not, is about the size of your raise
if you raise like 35BB and he shove 90BB+ you can even fold this 99 and still in the game with +- 90BB

 

[c0rnBr34d]

I can’t raise to 35 BB. Min raise is like 40 BB and he will have about 70 BB effective to jam. Pot will be huge though. Would be a pretty crazy fold. Min raise also leaves value on the table when we are ahead. Once we raise 50 BB or more I think we are committed. Min raise seems like a results oriented solution to allow a hero fold. Is this really your standard play here?

 

[fundiver199]

I think, its fine going broke here. As you say, he really should not have AK or for that matter KK, even though this time he actually did. I would however bet larger on the flop and turn, and then the river would be a jam over his donk bet. In general I dont worry to much about getting stacked, when my boat loose to a better boat on a single paired board.

 

[ScottishMatt]

I'm not sure what I do here, I don't think I ever find myself against this player type on this river with this SPR. Can I ask what your thinking is with regards to bet sizing OTF/OTT?

 

[c0rnBr34d]

I'm not sure what I do here, I don't think I ever find myself against this player type on this river with this SPR. Can I ask what your thinking is with regards to bet sizing OTF/OTT?

I sized down flop as an exploit to allow Vs to continue with wider ranges and get calls from hands like flush draws. When we have the whole board it's tough to get value. It's hard for V's to have an Ace here and if they do our small bet can induce a raise. If we are more aggressive we may chase some smaller pairs, flush draws, and high cards away. Similar story on the turn, I can size up here a bit but now the flush is scary if they don't have it and again a smaller sizing can induce a raise.

 

[Aballinamion]

V is VP 38 / PR 9 / 3B 3 over 91 hands.
Hero is VP 20 / PR 15 / 3B 5 over 86 hands.

PokerStars - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 154.58 BB
BB: 61.84 BB
UTG: 130.21 BB
Hero (CO): 150.77 BB
BTN: 330.92 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 9♣ 9♦

UTG calls 1 BB, Hero raises to 4 BB, BTN calls 4 BB, fold, fold, UTG calls 3 BB

Flop: (13.5 BB, 3 players) 9♠ A♦ A♠
UTG checks, Hero bets 4 BB, fold, UTG calls 4 BB

Turn: (21.5 BB, 2 players) 2♠
UTG checks, Hero bets 10 BB, UTG calls 10 BB

River: (41.5 BB, 2 players) K♠
UTG bets 19.71 BB, Hero raises to 80 BB, UTG raises to 112.21 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 32.21 BB
There's no way I can flat here right? He can be betting trips and flushes and 22 for value.

Spoiler

UTG shows K♥ A♥ (Full House, Aces full of Kings)
(Pre 48%, Flop 23%, Turn 16%)
Hero shows 9♣ 9♦ (Full House, Nines full of Aces)
(Pre 52%, Flop 77%, Turn 84%)
UTG wins 262.92 BB
Rake paid 3 BB

I was more worried about A2 than AK. How did this guy limp call AKhh pre?

Thank you for posting it mate. Well, first of all I would like to bitch around and say that I hate limpers playing cash. We never know for sure their ranges and they are so weak that we are simply going to level against their teddy bears 100% of times.
Having said that, let's jump into the action.

the postflop

The Flop

I like this bet OTF because it is dry and we have a lot of hands that could be going for the same sizing. UTG might call with flush draws and Ax, most of times. We don't expect many AK and AQ on Villain ranges, but what do we know about these freak passive-recreational right?

The Turn

It doesn't change anything, our hand is way too strong and we must be c-betting more often than checking here. However, now I don't like your sizing OTT. Because you bet small OTF now it is the time to make the pot grow, Villain can still has the flush draws of spades and Ax, so I guess that 2/3, 3/4 or 100% would work better here. Or even an overbet, like we do with our bluffs, however we don't bluff many flush draws when it double paired board, but it is a possibility.

The River

Given that this player is non-sense for the stake she/he is playing, I would not raise this river, because I'm afraid this donk river move in non-sense just like the Villain involved in the hand:
flushes should be check-calling because it double paired board and CO/Hero can have more AK, AQ, AA, KK on its range than Villain, plain and simple.
Passive players like this don't bluff that often, specially OTR. I also believe that the boats with 22 would be check-calling as well.
Passive player set this non-sense trap and it worked for it. Remember the turn, although we believe a passive player is unable to leave top trips OTT, so we would be charging the maximum, thus, forcing the whale to do wrong moves.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa

 

[ScottishMatt]

I sized down flop as an exploit to allow Vs to continue with wider ranges and get calls from hands like flush draws. When we have the whole board it's tough to get value. It's hard for V's to have an Ace here and if they do our small bet can induce a raise. If we are more aggressive we may chase some smaller pairs, flush draws, and high cards away. Similar story on the turn, I can size up here a bit but now the flush is scary if they don't have it and again a smaller sizing can induce a raise.

I can see your reasoning here. Personally I don't think this is a hand/board I would attempt to lower my sizing on in order to get a wider calling range in. The problem that I see is this: fish fold these boards a lot OOP vs any size Cbet (at least based on my observation/hand history).

For me, the only type of hands you are going to get multiple streets of value off of on this board are flush draws/flushes and Ax (or other FHs). Sure, by sizing smaller we get your 4BB calls from perhaps smaller PPs (and we do GII once these make a FH), however if the player isn't thinking - and we can assume fish like this aren't - then his call range is less dependant upon our sizing.

FWIW I think that because most PPs are lower than second pair on this board, that decreases the amount that players are X/C'ing w/other PPs, whereas on a AcAh3c board it is a lot easier for players to call with lower PPs than 99.

Anyway. I think that given his X/Call range largely consists of Ax and or flush draws (IMO), we obviously want to be building the pot so that:

a) If a flush comes in OTT and he gets scared w/Ax we have still maximised our value by getting more $ in while we can. Play later streets as appropriate.

b) If he X/R's w/Ax we are lowering the SPR on later streets and make it easier to GII when we have him dominated.

c) A player like this is not limp/calling pre to fold a FD OTF (even a paired flop), therefore we can size up OTF and still get called by all of his draws. We can lower turn sizing appropriately and still gain more value than by betting a smaller % OTF and a larger % OTT.

I really don't know what to do as played - apologies for that. I would perhaps minraise the river instead of making a massive raise though, as he will have a wider calling range than if you go 4x and given that his range of hands that beat you have widened since the flop I think it is prudent to bet/raise less on later streets.

I know that it is a pain in the ass to just CBet larger here and get so many folds but honestly we don't get much action on this flop anyway and if we do, we have them crushed and want to GII. If they are calling light on this flop, chances are they are only calling one street as the board texture doesn't alter much on later streets so I prefer to just size larger. We don't lose much value against a wider range of weaker hands, but we can lose value against the stronger hands we dominate - and it makes turn and river play so much easier with a lower SPR where we don't find ourself questioning whether to GII OTR with a FH.

Sorry if that seems dis-jointed.

 

[c0rnBr34d]

The Turn

It doesn't change anything, our hand is way too strong and we must be c-betting more often than checking here. However, now I don't like your sizing OTT. Because you bet small OTF now it is the time to make the pot grow, Villain can still has the flush draws of spades and Ax, so I guess that 2/3, 3/4 or 100% would work better here. Or even an overbet, like we do with our bluffs, however we don't bluff many flush draws when it double paired board, but it is a possibility.

The River

Given that this player is non-sense for the stake she/he is playing, I would not raise this river, because I'm afraid this donk river move in non-sense just like the Villain involved in the hand:
flushes should be check-calling because it double paired board and CO/Hero can have more AK, AQ, AA, KK on its range than Villain, plain and simple.
Passive players like this don't bluff that often, specially OTR. I also believe that the boats with 22 would be check-calling as well.
Passive player set this non-sense trap and it worked for it. Remember the turn, although we believe a passive player is unable to leave top trips OTT, so we would be charging the maximum, thus, forcing the whale to do wrong moves.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa

I agree we can size up a bit OTT but I think more than 2/3 still chases too many hands away that we can get value from.

On the river, the board is not double paired as you suggested. I think this makes a huge difference. Do you still feel we shouldn't be raising boats here? I'd be worried about a 9,T,J type river and flat. But Ks and 3s and 4s etc seem like an auto raise. Just one pair of Aces on board. We block all but 2 A9 combos. Stats don't suggest he's limp calling A2o here UTG much so even if we give him the two suited combos that's not much to worry about. He should almost never have AK as played even though he did.

Last point. This passive line is not indicitive of Vs stats. His aggression factor on every street is listed in my HUD. I didn't include it in OP but his AF for each street was 4 / 3 / 7 / 4. This is far from passive IMO. So he was probably planning to make his raise on the turn but got scared by the flush. Still doesn't explain the limp call pre and the flop x/c.

 

[c0rnBr34d]

I can see your reasoning here. Personally I don't think this is a hand/board I would attempt to lower my sizing on in order to get a wider calling range in. The problem that I see is this: fish fold these boards a lot OOP vs any size Cbet (at least based on my observation/hand history).

For me, the only type of hands you are going to get multiple streets of value off of on this board are flush draws/flushes and Ax (or other FHs). Sure, by sizing smaller we get your 4BB calls from perhaps smaller PPs (and we do GII once these make a FH), however if the player isn't thinking - and we can assume fish like this aren't - then his call range is less dependant upon our sizing.

FWIW I think that because most PPs are lower than second pair on this board, that decreases the amount that players are X/C'ing w/other PPs, whereas on a AcAh3c board it is a lot easier for players to call with lower PPs than 99.

Anyway. I think that given his X/Call range largely consists of Ax and or flush draws (IMO), we obviously want to be building the pot so that:

a) If a flush comes in OTT and he gets scared w/Ax we have still maximised our value by getting more $ in while we can. Play later streets as appropriate.

b) If he X/R's w/Ax we are lowering the SPR on later streets and make it easier to GII when we have him dominated.

c) A player like this is not limp/calling pre to fold a FD OTF (even a paired flop), therefore we can size up OTF and still get called by all of his draws. We can lower turn sizing appropriately and still gain more value than by betting a smaller % OTF and a larger % OTT.

I really don't know what to do as played - apologies for that. I would perhaps minraise the river instead of making a massive raise though, as he will have a wider calling range than if you go 4x and given that his range of hands that beat you have widened since the flop I think it is prudent to bet/raise less on later streets.

I know that it is a pain in the ass to just CBet larger here and get so many folds but honestly we don't get much action on this flop anyway and if we do, we have them crushed and want to GII. If they are calling light on this flop, chances are they are only calling one street as the board texture doesn't alter much on later streets so I prefer to just size larger. We don't lose much value against a wider range of weaker hands, but we can lose value against the stronger hands we dominate - and it makes turn and river play so much easier with a lower SPR where we don't find ourself questioning whether to GII OTR with a FH.

Sorry if that seems dis-jointed.

I see your points but as you stated, most of the time we aren't getting any action here on this flop so I'd rather take a small bite that may induce than a large bite that is likely to come up empty. We are 3 ways and have an opportunity to induce a spaz raise or multiple calls though. I think we should be mixing our play here but I still feel that sizing down is fine on this texture.

I agree we can size up a bit OTT but I don't see any pressing need to do so on the flop. If V made the flush OTT they will probably x/r. If they had the Ax they will at least x/c. So the turn is a bit of a miss in value. This would have probably gotten us to a similar point though where V donk leads slightly larger and if we 2.5x raise we are all but committed. All the min raise so that you can hero fold if he jams suggestions feel results oriented to me but I'll continue to mull it over. Maybe I'm being too salty here. His hand is very disguised.

 

[gustav197poker]

Completely agree with Carlos. This bet on the river doesn't make sense. And being 38/9 preflop makes V leadership very iffy. Obviously if we see the range structures involved, there are really few combos that beat us and against this the hero raise on the river is also justified. It was a cooler and a passive induction also in my opinion. The AFs are not representative enough for a sample of 90 hands.
Greetings.

 

[ScottishMatt]

I see your points but as you stated, most of the time we aren't getting any action here on this flop so I'd rather take a small bite that may induce than a large bite that is likely to come up empty. We are 3 ways and have an opportunity to induce a spaz raise or multiple calls though. I think we should be mixing our play here but I still feel that sizing down is fine on this texture.

I agree we can size up a bit OTT but I don't see any pressing need to do so on the flop. If V made the flush OTT they will probably x/r. If they had the Ax they will at least x/c. So the turn is a bit of a miss in value. This would have probably gotten us to a similar point though where V donk leads slightly larger and if we 2.5x raise we are all but committed. All the min raise so that you can fold if he jams suggestions feel results oriented to me but I'll continue to mull it over. Maybe I'm being too salty here. His hand is very disguised.

Minraising so you can fold is only valid if the river is another spade - which in this case it was - and is only valid (IMO) because his calling range against a river raise should narrow proportionate to your sizing. And it saves you money if you can ever find a fold, not that I am necessarily saying you should fold here on the river, but if you ever could fold against a certain player type, then minraise/folding may net you more EV from a wider calling range and saves you money when jammed upon. And when you can't fold, well then saving money is a moot point and it is a case of: does raising more and getting called less = more EV, than raising less and getting called more - which I am not too sure about. For me, that decision might base itself on villains WTSD etc.

 

[gustav197poker]

In fact, the limper range of a passive UTG doesn't include many suitable combos, because these are quite limiting of off-suit combinations. The limp range includes mostly high pokets like AA; KK. That is why we say that in the river we are well ahead of the V range. Only below 4 combos (AA + KK). In my opinion, the times that we don't jam this river we are losing money in the long term, since the times that we are wrong in these places and we lose, it is compensated by the times that we obtain the maximum value against the dominated ranges.

 

[fundiver199]

The small flop bet is probably, what a solver would recommend, but I prefer a more exploitative line against a fish, who has way more AX, than he is supposed to, and will never fold trips, even if he is supposed to. And 99 is the absolute perfect hand to have here, because you dont block AX. With AK/AQ I could see more of an argument for going small to keep his range wider.

 

[Aballinamion]

I agree we can size up a bit OTT but I think more than 2/3 still chases too many hands away that we can get value from.

Thank you very much for your ideas and attention. You said that are many hands away that we can get value from: For example? I think about hands like 22-KK are paying OTF and folding OTT no matter your sizing, because the flop is 'double paired' (9AA), very dry. On the other side, hands that are clearly continuing are the Ax and A9 (almost none), A2, AK, AQ, AJ, all the Ax, precisely, so I believe that from these group of hands that pay us on the flop, we should not bet less than 100% pot because we are scared of 22-KK to be folding. 22 would never be folding, and 33-KK, if they decide to continue they must pay the iron price.
We should not be worried about draws, because draws are not going to continue paying, but if they do, put the ultimate price/risk upon them.

On the river, the board is not double paired as you suggested. I think this makes a huge difference. Do you still feel we shouldn't be raising boats here? I'd be worried about a 9,T,J type river and flat. But Ks and 3s and 4s etc seem like an auto raise. Just one pair of Aces on board. We block all but 2 A9 combos. Stats don't suggest he's limp calling A2o here UTG much so even if we give him the two suited combos that's not much to worry about. He should almost never have AK as played even though he did.

I don't understand your reasoning mate: first you said you could not size up OTT because you are going to make a lot of hands to fold, and now OTR do you really believe that this passive non-sense players is going to be paying you with anything but the nuts?
We cannot say that this guy should not have "AK" here, we should say we should not be raising our boat, yes, that's what I am saying, that's what I am always saying: we do not bet for value when we don't have any bluffs.
Which kindda of bluffs are you raising on this very particular scenario where you raised limper preflop to 4x, c-bet flop, c-bet turn and then you face a pretty sweet good price donk river, what types of bluffs are you raising here? I really would like to know.
He should never have it, but he has and you lost more than you should, if you had called you would have lost, but not so much.
The truth is that you are not protecting your SB's ranges versus idiots. Idiots can have anything on their ranges and we must seek for the most logical solution, ever since we are thinking about ranges, and they are thinking about specific hands:
Whale UTG would never be donking this river with anything but the nuts! If Whale/UTG doesn't hit a King on the river he would be checking back to you, most of times, because they are playing only their hands, nothing more. [/QUOTE]

Last point. This passive line is not indicitive of Vs stats. His aggression factor on every street is listed in my HUD. I didn't include it in OP but his AF for each street was 4 / 3 / 7 / 4. This is far from passive IMO. So he was probably planning to make his raise on the turn but got scared by the flush. Still doesn't explain the limp call pre and the flop x/c.

Sorry mate but I think you were a little out of line when you played this hand. If this guy is limping from UTG you don't have a proper sample of hands for this type of decisions:
you would need at least 500 hands played to consider any flop statistics, including AF, for the turn we need at least 2000 k hands, minimum, and on the river nevermind:
How this guy can be a passive whale and by the same time a regular of 100 NLHE I cannot understand.
Besides, it is a great flaw to make decisions based on small sample of hands, and in general, making decisions only based on the HUD tracker.
The fact that this guy is either passive or aggressive postflop is irrelevant because we don't have enough sample to do so. It is even more irrelevant because it limped preflop at a 6-MAX table and this is very uncommon.
Sometimes the variance is on the side of the fish for a couple of hands such as a volume of 100, 200 hands played, a recreational can have luck enough and be betting a lot of turns and rivers for value, thus, creating a false impression that the guy is aggressive postflop.
Before looking to statistics, remember your adversary is a non-brainer fish that is not thinking about anything but the absolute value of its hand.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa

 

[Aballinamion]

To finish this ideas: by going small OTT, trying to keep hands like 22-KK, you gave such a marvelous price for UTG to perceive not only its AK boat, but you give odds for all the Ax to be going in and taking you down OTR, such as A3, A4, A5, A6 ... AJ, AQ, you name it.
Plus, if the player is a little average one and it pays this sweet good price c-bet turn of yours with TT+, you are also giving excelent odds for UTG to hit its boat OTR and take you down.
You should polarize your range OTT, where you still have a some few bluffs. On the river, your bluffs are gone, out, you are only raising this with boats I think, because even the flushes I guess you would be flatting this Villain's donk river.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa