$100 NLHE 6-max: I would like your opinion on this hand

[Edgerik]

This hand was played by Peter Clarke, was it a good fold?

pokerstars Zoom, Hold'em No Limit - $0.50/$1.00 - 6 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

Marrdi10 (UTG): $212.33 (212 bb)
StatiCKy (MP): $148.20 (148 bb)
wafflesnbeer (CO): $106.10 (106 bb)
NtrlBrnK1LL4 (BU): $239.38 (239 bb)
Carroters (SB): $255.43 (255 bb)
88france90 (BB): $100.00 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($1.50) Hero (Carroters) is SB with 2♠ 2♥
Marrdi10 (UTG) raises to $2.50, 2 players fold, NtrlBrnK1LL4 (BU) calls $2.50, Carroters (SB) calls $2, 88france90 (BB) calls $1.50

Flop: ($10) K♦ A♦ 2♦ (4 players)
Carroters (SB) checks, 88france90 (BB) checks, Marrdi10 (UTG) bets $6.27, NtrlBrnK1LL4 (BU) folds, Carroters (SB) calls $6.27, 88france90 (BB) folds

Turn: ($22.54) 6♦ (2 players)
Carroters (SB) checks, Marrdi10 (UTG) bets $7.07, Carroters (SB) calls $7.07

River: ($36.68) K♠ (2 players)
Carroters (SB) bets $13, Marrdi10 (UTG) raises to $66, Carroters (SB) folds

Total pot: $62.68 (Rake: $2.50)
Marrdi10 (UTG) wins $60.18

 

[gustav197poker]

I don't understand of SB bet on the river. I think the texture is quite dangerous, to try to lead in this place. The UTG c bet was of significant size. What combinations would make this size a 4-way boat? It occurs to me to think of 2 possibilities: AK (9 combos) and A-A (3 combos). Any line of flush in UTG, would seek to keep all the bluffs of the villains, in this boat.
On the turn, the villain bet is quite weak. With this size we have 4; 1 and it is a comfortable call. On the river another king appears and this street impacts negatively on our range. Now we have the worst full house scale and we must check this range, because we will not be called with less. The villain's initial line blocks our high value range. So we can only try to defend ourselves from the SB. So according It played, I think it waswas a good fold.
Greetings.

 

[c0rnBr34d]

Yea we wanted the 6 or the 2 to pair not so much the K or the A but in a single raised pot UTG could still have some big flush suited broadways like QJdd, JTdd, QTdd that we beat. No reads or stats on Vs so it's tough to range. I would x/c any reasonable river bet to get to showdown as cheaply as possible.

 

[John A]

No... and the only street that was played well was pre-flop and the turn. Other than that it's pretty bad, and the river fold is incredibly bad. Just about all AK/KK/AA is going to check that turn. So unless there's some other meta game happening, it should be a call.

 

[gustav197poker]

No... and the only street that was played well was pre-flop and the turn. Other than that it's pretty bad, and the river fold is incredibly bad. Just about all AK/KK/AA is going to check that turn. So unless there's some other meta game happening, it should be a call.

You're right John. But the increase in the river is at 5x and today in day, that size is very honest, most of the time. Unless you know the rival better, it is fair to say that we arrived unbalanced in the river.

 

[fundiver199]

We have the bottom boat, so our hand is clearly only a bluff catcher, when we get raised on the river. But as John A say, this does seem a little fishy, because does he really bet the turn with a set or AK, when there is four diamonds on the board? His bet was small, but it does seem fairly thin. It would be a terrible spot for these hands to get check-raised. Heros donk bet on the river was also small, which can look weak and induce a spass raise from an aggressive player, who dont want to be milked, but who dont want to give up either. So as played I think, we have to call.

 

[fundiver199]

Just want to add, that 22 is the best hand, Hero can ever have here. K6 and K2 fold preflop, AA, KK and AK 3-bet preflop, and 66 with no diamond fold on the flop. In the micros we can sometimes get away with overfolding in certain spots, because the average population does not bluff enough.

But when we get into mid stakes like this, we dont want to put ourselfes in spots, where we are folding 100% of the time. Many opponents will be good enough to raise the river as a bluff against a capped range, and especially so when we donk bet for a size, that look like thin value or a blocker bet.

As for what Villain might be bluffing with here, probably a hand like J of diamonds. Which again is pretty advanced stuff, you wont see much in the micros. But this is 100NL, so we should assume a competent opponent, unless we have information about the opposite.

Bluffing at 100NL also makes sense, because people might actually make a big laydown, as Hero did in this hand. Whereas if this was 10NL, it makes no sense to bluff with J of diamonds, because nobody is going to fold a better hand. Its 5$ to call, and even regulars will tend to go “whatever if I am beat, I am beat”.

 

[gustav197poker]

Just want to add, that 22 is the best hand, Hero can ever have here. K6 and K2 fold preflop, AA, KK and AK 3-bet preflop, and 66 with no diamond fold on the flop. In the micros we can sometimes get away with overfolding in certain spots, because the average population does not bluff enough.

But when we get into mid stakes like this, we dont want to put ourselfes in spots, where we are folding 100% of the time. Many opponents will be good enough to raise the river as a bluff against a capped range, and especially so when we donk bet for a size, that look like thin value or a blocker bet.

As for what Villain might be bluffing with here, probably a hand like J of diamonds. Which again is pretty advanced stuff, you wont see much in the micros. But this is 100NL, so we should assume a competent opponent, unless we have information about the opposite.

Bluffing at 100NL also makes sense, because people might actually make a big laydown, as Hero did in this hand. Whereas if this was 10NL, it makes no sense to bluff with J of diamonds, because nobody is going to fold a better hand. Its 5$ to call, and even regulars will tend to go “whatever if I am beat, I am beat”.

Do you really think that UTG here increases to 5x in the river with pure bluff? Sorry Fundiver, but I think this guy did a good job. He polarized your range with a small bet on the turn. As John says, a value range like AA; AK should check on the turn. But UTG did, just to induce sb to bluff. I am sure SB realized that he made a mistake, leading the river. The key was the UTG bet on the flop. No one would print value on a 4-way boat, unless you want to build a quick fold equity, with your pocket aces. In which case, SB could have increased that flop to compensate for its position, or give up and fold.

 

[fundiver199]

Do you really think that UTG here increases to 5x in the river with pure bluff?

In a mid or high stakes game, absolutely yes.

 

[gustav197poker]

In a mid or high stakes game, absolutely yes.

UTG knows that SB wanted to prepare a trap in the river. I don't think he tries to bluff here. He also committed 1/3 of his stack with this play. So apparently, he wants to get more involved with this hand.

 

[fundiver199]

I don't think he tries to bluff here.

The fact is, that when Hero never call, bluffing is hugely profitable. So why would a good player not bluff? This is why, when we get up to mid or high stakes, we need to be balanced to not get exploited. In this spot that probably mean checking our entire range on the river, and then check-calling with this hand and at least partially with a Q high flush.

 

[gustav197poker]

The fact is, that when Hero never call, bluffing is hugely profitable. So why would a good player not bluff? This is why, when we get up to mid or high stakes, we need to be balanced to not get exploited. In this spot that probably mean checking our entire range on the river, and then check-calling with this hand and at least partially with a Q high flush.

In that if I absolutely agree with you. This hand was x / c in the river. In this case we should protect our range of calls. Now the size proposed by UTG does not matter.

 

[quant1986]

I don't think Peter Clarke is balanced in this hand, perhaps he got a read that UTG would not attack river capped range.

 

[hackmeplz]

Yeah this entire hand is a dumpster fire, my guess is the person who played the hand is not a winner at these stakes. River play just shows an extreme lack of understanding of basic poker concepts. The only reason to lead this river is to prevent them from seeing a free showdown, why are we betting so small? And flop should almost definitely be a lead or a ch/r.


And to people harping on the river raise being 5x, that's irrelevant when the initial bet was 1/3 pot. The reality is it's roughly a 2/3 pot raise, and if it's a bluff it needs to work 57% of the time. Now think about how often someone who donks 1/3 pot on the river folds to this raise, and the fact that he folded literally the top of his range here.

 

[gustav197poker]

Yeah this entire hand is a dumpster fire, my guess is the person who played the hand is not a winner at these stakes. River play just shows an extreme lack of understanding of basic poker concepts. The only reason to lead this river is to prevent them from seeing a free showdown, why are we betting so small? And flop should almost definitely be a lead or a ch/r.


And to people harping on the river raise being 5x, that's irrelevant when the initial bet was 1/3 pot. The reality is it's roughly a 2/3 pot raise, and if it's a bluff it needs to work 57% of the time. Now think about how often someone who donks 1/3 pot on the river folds to this raise, and the fact that he folded literally the top of his range here.

The hero's bet on the river does not represent the top of his range. Because villain blocks the highest value in the flop. Now the SB is showing weakness in the river having led. And 57% of the time does not apply to this texture. Because the sb, he can't balance his range for behind. He lost the opportunity to balance on the flop, and from the turn, he fell into the UTG trap. This hand should have checked it on the river and then defend it.

 

[hackmeplz]

The hero's bet on the river does not represent the top of his range.

When did I say that? I said hero has the top of their range, nothing about the river bet. As mentioned before, hero will play all better hands differently preflop.

Because villain blocks the highest value in the flop.

What does this even mean?

Now the SB is showing weakness in the river having led.

Please elaborate.

And 57% of the time does not apply to this texture. Because the sb, he can't balance his range for behind. He lost the opportunity to balance on the flop, and from the turn, he fell into the UTG trap. This hand should have checked it on the river and then defend it.

57% absolutely applies, the board texture is irrelevant. If hero folds 57%+ of the time here, a raise with a hand that never wins at showdown is a profitable play. That's all I'm saying and that's all my analysis assumed. And when we fold 22 here it shows we're actually folding 100%.

 

[gustav197poker]

When did I say that? I said hero has the top of their range, nothing about the river bet. As mentioned before, hero will play all better hands differently preflop.


What does this even mean?



Please elaborate.





57% absolutely applies, the board texture is irrelevant. If hero folds 57%+ of the time here, a raise with a hand that never wins at showdown is a profitable play. That's all I'm saying and that's all my analysis assumed. And when we fold 22 here it shows we're actually folding 100%.

Here the main mistake was to bet on the river. And texture does matter. Because sb has a short range of action. So the sb cannot afford to lead this river. If the aggressor bets heavily on this flop, he is telling you that he carries a strong range of value. And if we fold with this full house bass, we are not being profitable. But the villain doesn't want to give you money. Now on this board, we are 100% of the times defeated, after the rise of UTG. Because now continues all AA AK and KK, which we could not control. Mathematically we are almost balanced. But reality is not a simulation. Here the final decision of hero was right in my opinion.

 

[John A]

Do you really think that UTG here increases to 5x in the river with pure bluff? Sorry Fundiver, but I think this guy did a good job. He polarized your range with a small bet on the turn. As John says, a value range like AA; AK should check on the turn. But UTG did, just to induce sb to bluff. I am sure SB realized that he made a mistake, leading the river. The key was the UTG bet on the flop. No one would print value on a 4-way boat, unless you want to build a quick fold equity, with your pocket aces. In which case, SB could have increased that flop to compensate for its position, or give up and fold.

Yeah, and these stakes and even below, most of today's regulars understand hand ranges, capped ranges, and the fact that OP in this hand likely doesn't have a hand they can call with. So it's a level 1 bluff by an OK regular. At higher stakes, it's a bad bluff because people will sniff this out pretty easily. So you're basically left with:

1) Villain played a hand worth raising on the river really bad.
2) Villain is bluffing.

 

[gustav197poker]

Yeah, and these stakes and even below, most of today's regulars understand hand ranges, capped ranges, and the fact that OP in this hand likely doesn't have a hand they can call with. So it's a level 1 bluff by an OK regular. At higher stakes, it's a bad bluff because people will sniff this out pretty easily. So you're basically left with:


1) Villain played a hand worth raising on the river really bad.
2) Villain is bluffing.

The size of UTG on the river induces bluffs OP to sb. If we increase the size beyond that limit, we are showing more strength of fold equity OP. And we don't want sb to call only. We want 4-bet lines here. There are several blocked combos John. I think UTG did a good job.

 

[hackmeplz]

Here the main mistake was to bet on the river. And texture does matter. Because sb has a short range of action. So the sb cannot afford to lead this river. If the aggressor bets heavily on this flop, he is telling you that he carries a strong range of value. And if we fold with this full house bass, we are not being profitable. But the villain doesn't want to give you money. Now on this board, we are 100% of the times defeated, after the rise of UTG. Because now continues all AA AK and KK, which we could not control. Mathematically we are almost balanced. But reality is not a simulation. Here the final decision of hero was right in my opinion.

Right but you completely misunderstood what I said. My statement had nothing to do with balance. It said that if villain has a hand to bluff with, his calculation on how much hero needs to fold is 57%. This was just to show you that his raise is actually very reasonable given hero's small river bet size. Honestly as I mentioned in my first post, hero butchers this hand, and honestly playing the hand this way with any two cards is probably bad. That means if villain is even halfway decent he's probably aware hero is not that great and thus is going to bluff plenty when he randomly donks for 1/3 pot on this "scary" river.

1) Villain played a hand worth raising on the river really bad.
2) Villain is bluffing.

Also this is 100% right. If villain is playing his strong hands this way he's bleeding money to us. If he plays his bluffs this way he's not, and it's going to be a good bluff unless we call with at the very least the very top of our range. I don't think anyone's tried to make the "we need to play perfect gto so we have to call here" argument, you just seem to think villain always plays his strong hands this way and never bluffs which just isn't a player type you see at these stakes very often.

 

[gustav197poker]

Yeah, and these stakes and even below, most of today's regulars understand hand ranges, capped ranges, and the fact that OP in this hand likely doesn't have a hand they can call with. So it's a level 1 bluff by an OK regular. At higher stakes, it's a bad bluff because people will sniff this out pretty easily. So you're basically left with:

1) Villain played a hand worth raising on the river really bad.
2) Villain is bluffing.

The rank structure of utg in the flop represents a fairly limited line. Because that the active ways of this boat, block the bluffs and semi bluffs that UTG wants to represent, with the IP and OP calls that occur from preflop.
Therefore, the frequency of times with which UTG villain chooses this sequence with value, is high from the C-bet / flop. In both MS and HS, the UTG sequence makes sense of + EV in the long term. Because on the river, UTG is prepared for 4-bet lines and eventually, a 5-bet offensive/defense in position. Perhaps the maximum values ​​of UTG have the possibility of becoming bluffs. But this is much more likely, from lines greater than 4 (3) IP bets. Below these structures, UTG applications are fundamentally polarized inductions to SB, between dominated values ​​(OOP) and combinations ​​converted to bluff.

 

[greatgame230]

Hi, I would have folded in the pre.flop or on the turn but never on the river, you paid on the turn with four diamonds on the board and then you have the fullhouse and you fold, if he has AK, AA or KK bad luck but I do not fold a fullhouse on the river, if there was an opportunity to do the fold for me it was in the pre-flop or on the turn never on the river, in my opinion that it does not have to be the right thing it was an easy call

 

[Plaza]

Just want to add, that 22 is the best hand, Hero can ever have here. K6 and K2 fold preflop, AA, KK and AK 3-bet preflop, and 66 with no diamond fold on the flop. In the micros we can sometimes get away with overfolding in certain spots, because the average population does not bluff enough.

But when we get into mid stakes like this, we dont want to put ourselfes in spots, where we are folding 100% of the time. Many opponents will be good enough to raise the river as a bluff against a capped range, and especially so when we donk bet for a size, that look like thin value or a blocker bet.

As for what Villain might be bluffing with here, probably a hand like J of diamonds. Which again is pretty advanced stuff, you wont see much in the micros. But this is 100NL, so we should assume a competent opponent, unless we have information about the opposite.

Bluffing at 100NL also makes sense, because people might actually make a big laydown, as Hero did in this hand. Whereas if this was 10NL, it makes no sense to bluff with J of diamonds, because nobody is going to fold a better hand. Its 5$ to call, and even regulars will tend to go “whatever if I am beat, I am beat”.

In your opinion, what stakes does this start to happen? That players could and would bluff at this based on the line played? I have not yet matured enough to play higher than the micros but I would see a small river bet like this and I would think it was to small and put the raise in myself. So I’m interested in your view please, if it’s not to much trouble.

Plaza

 

[fundiver199]

I would say, you need to start thinking about not overfolding at 25NL. For 6-max games even to some extend already at 10NL.