$100 NLHE 6-max: Is this fold too nitty?

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c0rnBr34d

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PokerStars - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 100 BB - VP 18/ PR 14/ 3B 5 / 4B 0 (188 hands)
MP: 78.41 BB
CO: 95.2 BB
BTN: 131.96 BB
SB: 131.29 BB
Hero (BB): 132.45 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q Q

UTG raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, SB calls 2 BB, Hero raises to 10 BB, UTG raises to 25 BB, fold, Hero calls 15 BB

Flop: (52.5 BB, 2 players) 3 K 8
Hero checks, UTG bets 16.46 BB, fold,

I hated this fold but near the end of my session I didn't want get in a big pot and give back most of my profits. If I call flop OOP and he doesn't slow down (which he probably shouldn't) then I'll have to continue to call down light or fold turn or river. If we can't call a decent turn bet I figured it would be better to just fold flop. Had we flopped an over pair I'd be willing to call down against 12 value combos and drawing to the nut set. The K crushes his range if I wasn't already behind. Not much on reads but 188 hands starts to give a little of a picture. With only 18 VPIP and from UTG I don't think this guy shows up with AQs often enough to profitably continue. Fair enough to cut our losses and end our session with a nice win or defend OOP vs a range disadvantage with a fairly strong hand?
 
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fundiver199

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He has a very low PFR for 6-max, he has a low 3-bet, and he is opening UTG. Does he even always 4-bet QQ or AK? Maybe / maybe not, so I would actually not even hate just getting out pre. And when the K hit on the flop, I feel, its a very trivial fold. Nits dont bluff, so dont pay them off.
 
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c0rnBr34d

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He has a very low PFR for 6-max, he has a low 3-bet, and he is opening UTG. Does he even always 4-bet QQ or AK? Maybe / maybe not, so I would actually not even hate just getting out pre. And when the K hit on the flop, I feel, its a very trivial fold. Nits dont bluff, so dont pay them off.
This actually crossed my mind but for this sizing and with only 188 hands it just felt too nitty to fold pre. I remembered when I was 8 tabling 30NL and would sometimes have a similar VP/PR over a 100 hand sample. I guess it’s not as nitty as I thought. Perhaps the flop fold IS trivial. Just felt gross in the moment.
 
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fundiver199

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I think, preflop is fine, because I dont think, we can rule out, that he is 4-betting AK at least at some frequenzy. But I would rather fold than 5-bet jam.
 
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being nitty vs a 18/14/5 is fine imo here. some will say not enough hands but I think we can make a exploitative fold.
If there was backdoor equity I think we should continue
 
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I will chip in here and say that 188 hands really isn't enough to be sure that he is that much of a nit.

I certainly understand the '...I really want to end this session well...' sentiment, though.
 
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fundiver199

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188 hands is generally enough for VPIP and PFR to converge. 3-bet is still very uncertain though. The biggest caveat here is perhaps, if Hero also play full ring, and most of the hands were picked up there. Then 18/15 is more of a standard TAG. But for 6-max is it very tight.
 
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gustav197poker

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The hand looks standard and the fold seems like a close option considering all the development. What really makes me think is hero's decision to stay positive. But this action comes from the previous feeling of anger, at having to fold on this flop because we think we are below V range, which is presumably possible. I think the greatest achievement here was avoiding a series of bad blows and consequently a state of discomfort, which could later be triggered in a state of tilt.
So, regardless of whether 18/14 is a bit significant or not for a 188 hands sample (I personally think it's a small sample) it's important to realize the tipping point that could change the fate of the session and pass in a few minutes, from a winning session to a session where we are with less positive margin. I think it was an excellent decision to choose this hand as one of the last to fold.
Greetings.
 
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c0rnBr34d

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188 hands is generally enough for VPIP and PFR to converge. 3-bet is still very uncertain though. The biggest caveat here is perhaps, if Hero also play full ring, and most of the hands were picked up there. Then 18/15 is more of a standard TAG. But for 6-max is it very tight.

Nope, his sample was all 6 max. As far as online only 125 hands out of 130k were full ring. And on pokerstars where this V was, only 14 hands.
The hand looks standard and the fold seems like a close option considering all the development. What really makes me think is hero's decision to stay positive. But this action comes from the previous feeling of anger, at having to fold on this flop because we think we are below V range, which is presumably possible. I think the greatest achievement here was avoiding a series of bad blows and consequently a state of discomfort, which could later be triggered in a state of tilt.
So, regardless of whether 18/14 is a bit significant or not for a 188 hands sample (I personally think it's a small sample) it's important to realize the tipping point that could change the fate of the session and pass in a few minutes, from a winning session to a session where we are with less positive margin. I think it was an excellent decision to choose this hand as one of the last to fold.
Greetings.
To be clear, I wasn't on tilt before or during the hand. I guess the gross feeling came from knowing I was making an exploitable fold. From an MDF perspective I'm not flatting 22 or 88 OOP in a 4 bet pot and I'm 5 betting most of my KK+ and AK. So QQ is definitely well within my defense range for this sizing. So it felt like a slippery slope to make exploitable folds with such a small sample. If I had called and turned a Q and ran into KK that may have been tilt inducing lol. It's also mildly annoying to lose a significant pot near the end of your session.

I will chip in here and say that 188 hands really isn't enough to be sure that he is that much of a nit.

I certainly understand the '...I really want to end this session well...' sentiment, though.
Thanks for this post. I was starting to think I was silly for feeling the hand was even post worthy and it was a super trivial snap fold. In retrospect I'm still happy with the decision given all the circumstances. I was only playing 2 tables since I'm still not really rolled for 100NL and only had a 90 minute window allotted. I was up over 127 BB on the session and had already crossed the 90 minute mark. I had checked the "sit out next big blind" box on both tables and then get a bad flop OOP in a 4 bet pot against a V who is shaping up as a nit. I can fold and book a pretty sick 37 BB/100 session. Or play a more balanced defense and maybe end up giving back half or even all of the profit. All the signs helped point me to an exploitable but correct fold IMO.
 
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