Line: Naked Check-Raise OTT OOP/Flatting 3-bet Pot
In this case I am facing a villain who has a wider range. For security reasons I cannot provide specific HUD details. Against a nit player, this play is 100% losing.
Thank you for your analysis, greetings.
The hand:
https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/3qqwkrC
Hello there dear mate, thank you very much for sharing with us!
A question: when you say Villain has a wider range, you mean preflop, flop, turn and river?
I mean, is it very aggressive preflop and postflop? Thanks!
The Preflop
Well, if Villain is aggressive as you said we must make one ponderation before anything: both are slightly deep stacked. Villain 3-bets to 3.3x, which is a little salty and polarized, but we expect so many bluffs here that a 4-bet should be almost mandatory.
Considering this is a 3-bet range BTN vs CO, of a possible aggro-donkey, and we are out of position, I see no reason to be calling with AK, having information that it will be horrible to play this hand out of position versus a guy who fires flop/turn and river, no matter what it has (possible).
In situations like this we are 4-betting 90% of times and calling 10%, IMO.
the postflop
The Flop
This dry flop is not very good for anyone. We don't expect many A7 and A3 on Villain's range, but given the fact we elected to flat preflop, BTN has position and can bet almost its entire 3-bet range here, for 1/3 pot.
This is not the happiest call of our lives and we must have a plan ASAP for the times we miss the turn, and we are going to miss a ton of turns of what are we going to do:
are we going to continue/floating to
bluff OTR? Are we going to check-raise turn to represent...X, Y, what are we going to do after calling, and the question goes even beyong, depending how fishy this Villain is, how likely is it going to be folding to a check-raise turn, once you flatted preflop, how likely fishy is going to be folding to a river push?
Can we really bluff this type of player?
The Turn
Here, I see no reason to be
bluffing. This 9h doesn't change anything for us, we have our range capped for medium-weak
hands, and Villain/BTN makes a fair sizing of almost 100% pot.
Of course BTN could be bluffing its flush draws of clubs and hearts, specially some 8cTc that it decided to 3-bet light, whatever, I don't see AKo as a good bluff here, because we are only bluffing the BDFs of hearts, on which Villain will present less on its range, specially because we own the blocker of the nut flush.
Another point to consider is that, given the fact this turn continues very dry, we don't see many bluffs on Villain's range plus the texture of the board (double paired 3's), it is not the best in the world, because now, CO can have flatted 3-bet preflop with 33, 77, 99, and BTN will have less combos than us.
So, how could fishy to be bluffing? Does fishy have any ideia about bluffing?
If Fishy has a marginal hand such as 7x, 9x, do we believe a raise OTT can make the fish to fold?
The River
Well, this adversary is really very, very weak, because hands that could be paying your check-raise OTT could be easily jamming right off the bat since the pot was already very interesting (JJ+ for example).
Besides, we don't bluff OTT by calling, because we are simply representing nothing (Villain's shoes). So, given the fact Villain commited this blunder, we are donk shoving 100% of rivers, because even if BTN had the full-houses on its range it would be impossible to CO to be folding to a push as well.
Thank God there is these kind of players at 100 NLHE, making non-sense postflop moves and folding leaving only 40 blinds behind, in a situation where CO could be easily be donk shoving the missed draws of spades and missed draws of hearts.
Overall, you overplayed AKo a little versus a guy that, by your own description, seems to overcalll.
Regards;
Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa