This is a discussion on $100 NLHE 6-max: calling a 10x overbet jam with nut straight? within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; Hero (CO): 210 BB
BTN: 121.5 BB (VPIP: 20.84, PFR: 15.97, 3Bet Preflop: 6.59, Hands: 1,710)
SB: 104.5 BB (VPIP: 32.63, PFR: 23.16, 3Bet Preflop: 7.89, Hands:
River : (22.5 BB, 2 players) Ts
UTG bets 187 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 187 BB
V is very sticky, bluff raises a lot. Doesn't like to fold at all. He did overbet jam a busted draw before & have check raised 3rd pair on turn vs a double barrel
I can expect him to jam Qx here. Maybe even 7x weirdly enough
From my perspective (no knowledge of the player), I would look at a fold on the turn, as played. There are probably way better spots with this guy. He probably has something of a hand and you don't have many outs.
Limping from EP could mean a pocket pair... even with this 60% VPIP guy, its possible he has an 8 in his hand. Checking the flop he could be looking to slow play. This is a definite possibility.
If he is a sticky fish, why not bet the flop? There are a lot of draws he can call with, fewer pairs. Then if he calls you can make a decision, including a check behind on the turn with a draw.
Without some kind of specific read this is a fairly easy fold in my opinion. We got the card, we wanted but not exactly the action, we wanted 200 BB deep. Even maniacs can make a full house, and I dont like to get value owned by a maniac. I am fine with checking back flop and calling the turn with two overs and a gutshot.
I think I'm going to disagree with the posters above and make the call here. Villain definitely has every 8x boat in his range, but I highly highly doubt he's going to have 99, TT, JJ here. Against maniac players, you're going to have a tough time putting him on a reasonable range. There are enough other things he could be betting that make this a call. Missed flush, worse straight, 8x that panic jammed on the 4 card straight, maybe a JT type hand. Against a guy tough to read like this, it's hard to imagine finding a better spot.
If your reading about the opponent is fair, you played optimally.
Otherwise, I would fold on the turn.
In this second case on the turn, you should avoid overestimating your blockers, since in this board, a maniac could exploit an unprecedented value in any pair, and in that case you would be below it, in most cases.