$10 NLHE Full Ring: Trips vs. Possible River 2 Outer?

[blueskies]

10NL. I have KJ suited on CO. Someone raised to 25c, I called and both blinds called.

Flop is JJA rainbow. Everyone checks to me and I bet 2/3 pot. BB calls, everyone folds.

Flop's the 8d, no draws at this point except a weird str draw which I can dismiss. I bet another 2/3 pot looking for an ace to call. He calls.

River comes another A, and he leads out with a bet for half the pot.

I teetertottered between call or fold, and I folded.

My only shot was if he for some reason decided to throw out a blocker bet with a J.

But it smelled more like an ace that hit yet another lucky river suckout.

Would you call anyway considering I was getting 3:1 to call?

 

[gustav197poker]

If you want to have more precise answers it is necessary to publish some missing data- E g: who is the opener? What is your exact hand? What is the exact texture of the board? This type of information helps more to approximate the reality of the sequence.
Here if opener was a strong position like UTG, the probability that you will face a blocking bet on the river decreases, as BB's range will be more capped and OTR is more likely to bet with weaker aces waiting to be called. with some blockers like yours. Whereas if the opening was made by a position like HJ, the possibility that you are faced with a blocking bet increases and in this sense you have a good kicker that protects you from most combinations that have a J. And on the other hand the combos suits AJs, are not available.
If you only look at your hand, you have the worst possible hand since now the possibility that the V has a J in its range decreases completely + the fact that you have bet very larges sizes on a heavy board you have a standard fold in the river.
Greetings.

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
It is important to know the position of the player opening, and depending on that anything from a fold to a 3-bet can be a reasonable option.

Flop
Great flop obviously, and C-bet looks fine. There is an argument to be made for smaller sizing on such a dry board, but in a microstakes game I dont hate going a bit on the large side, especially if there are fish involved.

Turn
As you say, card changes nothing, so clearly bet again for value, and when you chose a big size on the flop, it would be weird to size down now. You are playing your hand face up saying "hey I got a J", but thats ok, since he might still not believe you and call with an ace.

River
This card counterfeited your hand. You "improved" from trips to a full house, but unfortunately your opponents entire range either improved to a better full house or the same full house. He literally cant have a bluff here, since you folded out all weak hands with your large flop and turn bets. Also if he had a J, why would he play passive on the flop and turn but play aggressive now, when he also got counterfeited and cant get a better hand to fold? If he had a J, he should obviously check again and maybe even check-fold.

So his range here is literally AX apart from those lets say 5% of the time, where people do something completely weird. Phil Helmuth called on "The Big Game" a decade ago on a similar board runout, and yes his opponent had the obvious top boat, which send Phil on one of his famous "how can I be this unlucky" rampages. But really when its completely obvious, you are beat, you should just fold. So at least you can pride yourself of being better, than Phil Helmuth was a decade ago

 

[Sidetracked]

The Ace is a lousy card for you.

However, I've seen people do really weird things at online poker tables. Maybe he had a Jack and was planning on checkraising the river. Now he's forced to make what he sees as a blocker bet.

Maybe he does have the Ace. I think your fold is fine, but keep an eye on him to see his tendencies in the future.

 

[fundiver199]

Maybe he had a Jack and was planning on checkraising the river. Now he's forced to make what he sees as a blocker bet.

He cant block bet a J, because the only better hand is an A, and an A is always going to raise. So if he was leading with a J, it would actually be as a bluff trying to get another J to fold.