This is a discussion on $10 NLHE Full Ring: Trips vs. Possible River 2 Outer? within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; 10NL. I have KJ suited on CO. Someone raised to 25c, I called and both blinds called.
Flop is JJA rainbow. Everyone checks to me and
If you want to have more precise answers it is necessary to publish some missing data- E g: who is the opener? What is your exact hand? What is the exact texture of the board? This type of information helps more to approximate the reality of the sequence.
Here if opener was a strong position like UTG, the probability that you will face a blocking bet on the river decreases, as BB's range will be more capped and OTR is more likely to bet with weaker aces waiting to be called. with some blockers like yours. Whereas if the opening was made by a position like HJ, the possibility that you are faced with a blocking bet increases and in this sense you have a good kicker that protects you from most combinations that have a J. And on the other hand the combos suits AJs, are not available.
If you only look at your hand, you have the worst possible hand since now the possibility that the V has a J in its range decreases completely + the fact that you have bet very larges sizes on a heavy board you have a standard fold in the river.
It is important to know the position of the player opening, and depending on that anything from a fold to a 3-bet can be a reasonable option.
Great flop obviously, and C-bet looks fine. There is an argument to be made for smaller sizing on such a dry board, but in a microstakes game I dont hate going a bit on the large side, especially if there are fish involved.
As you say, card changes nothing, so clearly bet again for value, and when you chose a big size on the flop, it would be weird to size down now. You are playing your hand face up saying "hey I got a J", but thats ok, since he might still not believe you and call with an ace.
This card counterfeited your hand. You "improved" from trips to a full house, but unfortunately your opponents entire range either improved to a better full house or the same full house. He literally cant have a bluff here, since you folded out all weak hands with your large flop and turn bets. Also if he had a J, why would he play passive on the flop and turn but play aggressive now, when he also got counterfeited and cant get a better hand to fold? If he had a J, he should obviously check again and maybe even check-fold.
So his range here is literally AX apart from those lets say 5% of the time, where people do something completely weird. Phil Helmuth called on "The Big Game" a decade ago on a similar board runout, and yes his opponent had the obvious top boat, which send Phil on one of his famous "how can I be this unlucky" rampages. But really when its completely obvious, you are beat, you should just fold. So at least you can pride yourself of being better, than Phil Helmuth was a decade ago