$10 NLHE Full Ring: Slow bet size decision-> timed out

[charliej]

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 24/11/1

Soft online table. On this hand, all fold to me in MP with 43 of spades and I raise to 3bb for protection. Everyone folds except SB who calls. Pot is .70, 11.80 effective stacks. Flop is 4d2s2d. SB checks and I bet .45 with the 4's and boat/runner runner draws. Villain raises to 1.45. Hmmm... maybe trips or flush draw? I call. Turn is 4c making me a 44422 boat. Villain makes a 1.90 1/2 pot bet (pot $5.50). I figure he's got a flush draw, x2 or high pair at best and I'm pretty nutted. So how much do I bet to keep him in? First I hit All In but I'm afraid that's too much. Then I hit Pot - same thing. So as I'm trying to decide whether to call or how much to raise, I run out of f...king time (15 seconds) and lose the hand!

 

[matiusaa]

Villian seems showing strength. If he has a strong hand, he will bet the river. If he is bluffing for some reason, its better to call since we allow him to bluff the river. If he is bluffing, he might bluff a diamond on the river. If he doesn’t we can bet small on the river

 

[LevySystem]

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 24/11/1

Soft online table. On this hand, all fold to me in MP with 43 of spades and I raise to 3bb for protection. Everyone folds except SB who calls. Pot is .70, 11.80 effective stacks. Flop is 4d2s2d. SB checks and I bet .45 with the 4's and boat/runner runner draws. Villain raises to 1.45. Hmmm... maybe trips or flush draw? I call. Turn is 4c making me a 44422 boat. Villain makes a 1.90 1/2 pot bet (pot $5.50). I figure he's got a flush draw, x2 or high pair at best and I'm pretty nutted. So how much do I bet to keep him in? First I hit All In but I'm afraid that's too much. Then I hit Pot - same thing. So as I'm trying to decide whether to call or how much to raise, I run out of f...king time (15 seconds) and lose the hand!

Several things here:

How many hands are villains stats on? Huge difference if we are talking 50 or 250 hands here.

Then, you don't raise 43s here for protection. You openraise 43s to 3bb and get one caller. On the flop you hit TP with a BDSD and a BDFD. You decide to Cbet for protection. I'd be allways cbetting this board because it's so dry, but that's a different story.

Right so now that we got the terminology somewhat straight, if we assume that villain stats are relevant his range is pretty wide in this spot as there is a huge gap between Vpip and PFR. Also he doesn't seem to 3bet a lot. Hence his raising range OTF could be 2x, 4x, flushdraws, Ax gutshots and pocket pairs here. Also, as those stats are quite fishy, we could assign a random number of combos he decides to raise becuase the board is so dry and he doesn't give you credit for hitting it. Therefore I like the call.

Now Hero hits the nuts OTT and V bets, dreamcase. Whatever his range might be, you have the best possible hand here and you are IP. Therefore villain is at a information disadvantage. You don't want to raise anything here. There is still 1 Street left to play on which hero will be last to act, therefore can allways decide to go allin OTR. Given that there has been lots of action in this hand I assume that the SPR is quite low anyway (provide stackdepth). So hero should only call here imo and keep villains bluffs in his range. Unless he is the most passive station you have ever seen and assume he is calling his draws vs a jam in this spot.

For the next time posting please provide accurate and complete information on the hand, as it makes it easier to analyze.

GL at the tables

 

[charliej]

Appreciate the feedback.

To LeviSystem: I'll improve posts in the future. Here's some more info if you care to comment further.

- Villain sample size is 40 hands but I didn't have any reason to think he was a strong player.
- SPR is high = 17.
- When I said "raised for protection", I meant range protection since I tend to raise mostly strong holdings and I'm trying to become more balanced. How did you mean the Cbet was for protection?

Thanks.

 

[LevySystem]

To LeviSystem: I'll improve posts in the future. Here's some more info if you care to comment further.

- Villain sample size is 40 hands but I didn't have any reason to think he was a strong player.
- SPR is high = 17.
- When I said "raised for protection", I meant range protection since I tend to raise mostly strong holdings and I'm trying to become more balanced. How did you mean the Cbet was for protection?

Thanks.

OK, so we shouldn't focus to much here on villain stats. The big gap between Vpip an PFR and the fact that villain has a calling range in SB would still make me want to believe that he is on the weaker side, but we can't really say. I guess this comes down to knowledge of the average opponent in these games.


I understand, protecting a hand is often referred to as betting a valuehand postflop that don't quite qualifies as a valuebet vs most players. That's why I was wondering what you are protecting here. Theoriewise we could then argue, well if we don't get called by worse that often, why bet in the first place? Simply to have an easier decision on later streets/ information. Say we can fold Villains over cards to the board here OTF, we deny Villain equity here and we have an easier decision OTT, because if we check that might be perceived as weakness and villain might start betting any 2 cards once we gave up the initiative. And I wouldnt want to call here with a weak 2 pair that could often be dominated by pocket pairs or any card villain might hit.

But as said I would Cbet my entire range almost here with a small sizing, because villain is quite wide and fold equity should be high. We can make an argument to check really strong hands that are not affected by an equity shift OTT or nuts for that matter, to let villain catch up. Say maybe QQ+, 2x, 44 preferably with a diamond in the hand aswell to have redraw potential to the flush.

Right so since SPR is still quite high, I can see the merit in raising here since we preferably want to stack him. Now I still don't think you will get a lot of calls here, because what are you really representing as a bluff IP here? Board is double paired so the risk is high for any draw to allready being drawing dead. Every somewhat decent player will fold OTT vs a raise unless he has value. So we only target 2x, 4x here, which is a very small part of V range. That being said, if you have the read that villain is a huge station I would like a very small raise sizing. Maybe he calls Ax or pocket pairs here. Something like 30% pot. So a sizing he cant really fold a lot to.

The problem I see with this though is the initiative switching back to us, therefore villain is unlikely to donk river after we rr turn. So as he allready is betting I'd say we keep it that way and play call. OTR we still have the opportunity to bet/ raise and we keep villains bluffs in. Plus weaker players feel committed to the pot once they invested a big chunk of their stack into a hand resulting in a herocall OTR.