$10 NLHE Full Ring: Overpair what to do?

[siwanat99]

pokerstars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.05/$0.10 - 9 players

(UTG): $21.48 (215 bb)
(UTG+1): $9.01 (90 bb)
(MP): $4.60 (46 bb)
(MP+1): $18.17 (182 bb)
(LP): $13.66 (137 bb)
Hero (CO): $11.90 (119 bb)
(BU): $10.10 (101 bb) Vpip : 26 PFR : 20 AF : 3 (167 hands)
(SB): $9.02 (90 bb)
(BB): $9.95 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with Q♠ Q♣
1 fold, (UTG+1) raises to $0.20, 1 fold, (MP+1) calls $0.20, 1 fold, Hero (CO) 3-bets to $1, (BU) calls $1, 2 players fold, (UTG+1) calls $0.80,

Flop: ($3.35) J♠ 2♣ 8♥ (3 players)
(UTG+1) checks, Hero (CO) bets $1.60, (BU) calls $1.60, (UTG+1) folds

Turn: ($6.55) 5♥ (2 players)
Hero (CO) checks, (BU) bets $2, Hero (CO) calls $2

River: ($10.55) 6♥ (2 players)
siwanat99 (CO) checks, fapping2AA (BU) bets $5.50 (all-in), Hero (CO) what to do ?

 

[Alucard]

why are you check calling turn?
Bet or xjam Turn imo. But not sure how profitable the xjam line is.
As played calling river. It sucks but whatevs. Unless with better reads

 

[fundiver199]

The flop is a way ahead way behind spot, and I think, a slightly smaller bet would be better. It would also avoid this somewhat awkward turn situation with only a pot sized bet left. As played you have to call down. What do you even lose to here, that cold call a 3-bet and then play like this? It should pretty much only be 3 combos of JJ exactly. If he called your flop bet with AK/AQ of hearts with someone left to act behind him, then he can also have all the other AK/AQ combos and be turning them into a bluff.

 

[Collin Moshman]

Interesting spot! I agree with Alucard on this hand.

Pre-Flop: Nice sizing

Flop: Good

Turn: Bet for value with the plan of stacking off with an overpair and such a large pot relative to stacks

River: As played call it off because your hand is under-repped at this point and you're getting good odds.

 

[Aballinamion]

Squeezed pot versus unknown (regular or whale?)

PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.05/$0.10 - 9 players

(UTG): $21.48 (215 bb)
(UTG+1): $9.01 (90 bb)
(MP): $4.60 (46 bb)
(MP+1): $18.17 (182 bb)
(LP): $13.66 (137 bb)
Hero (CO): $11.90 (119 bb)
(BU): $10.10 (101 bb) Vpip : 26 PFR : 20 AF : 3 (167 Hands)
(SB): $9.02 (90 bb)
(BB): $9.95 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with Q♠ Q♣
1 fold, (UTG+1) raises to $0.20, 1 fold, (MP+1) calls $0.20, 1 fold, Hero (CO) 3-bets to $1, (BU) calls $1, 2 players fold, (UTG+1) calls $0.80,

Flop: ($3.35) J♠ 2♣ 8♥ (3 players)
(UTG+1) checks, Hero (CO) bets $1.60, (BU) calls $1.60, (UTG+1) folds

Turn: ($6.55) 5♥ (2 players)
Hero (CO) checks, (BU) bets $2, Hero (CO) calls $2

River: ($10.55) 6♥ (2 players)
siwanat99 (CO) checks, fapping2AA (BU) bets $5.50 (all-in), Hero (CO) what to do ?

Hello there siwanat99, thank you for sharing your hand.

The Preflop action:

You squeezed preflop to 5x, and I guess your sizing is okay here. Three players enter into the pot and the player in the BTN also calls in the middle of the road. This usually means two things:

A) That BTN has a very strong range, since EP is yet to speak after BTN, so it is awaiting 4-bet/Squeezes.

B) That BTN perceived weak players on the blinds (SB and BB are both short stacked when the action happened), and decided to widen its cold calling range to play IP versus these guys, SB and BB, out of position.

In the case of element A, we will find a more capped range, with 88+ QJ, KQ, AQ, AK, and a lot of suited broadways and strong suited connectors such as T9,J9, Q9, 98, 76, etc.
In the case of element B, we will find a more uncapped range with 22+, all the suited connectors, even 32s, and all the broadways off and suited.

Given the limited data we have to deal with, VPIP of 26 and PFR of 20, for only 167 hands indicates that this BTN/Villain loves to call preflop so we can widen its range a little, or the element B a little bit, but without exaggeration. No conclusions about BTN player, it can be a REG, a Whale, a FISH, a LAG, an Aggro Donkey, whatever: 167 is not enough for optimal decision making. (We will have to be guessing here very soon, sorry).
Well, you Squeeze, BTN calls and UTG+1 calls, we have now a very complicated and big pot to play postflop with a player that we don't know for sure (167 hands).
The pot went to be of a size of 33.5 blinds preflop, and this alters completely the way we should play our ranges. Because of this huge sizing you will stack here a fair chunk of times with the top of your range whether you like it or not.

The Postflop

The Flop: This flop is medium-good for us, and in a 3-handed pot/Squeezed, we are going to be C-bettinf for value in a very high frequency, with almost 100% of our range. Sometimes Villain/Villains will notice this and exploit us on later streets.
We are betting here a lot of whiffed aces, such as AKs, AQs, AJ, even A8s, AA, KK, QQ are c-betting here in a high frequency and that's when huge problems begin to arise:
Considering that almost never we have the nuts in a situation like this (we do not have too much 22 and 88, we never have J8, J2, 82, even 22 or 88 (in a high frequency) on our Squeezing Range of CO x UTG/UTG+1: in situations like this, the best hand that we could have is JJ with top set, the ONLY hand that we can represent here. (AJ is not so comfortable, and so does KJ).
We are not blocking JJ, per se, we are blocking some combos of QJ for instance.
So, given that almost never we have the nuts, our JJ are checking this flop in a X low frequency to induce bluffs, and when JJ bets, given this flop is not very connected, JJ goes for 1/3 pot, because it doesn't need protection right now, or just a little protection.
Given that we c-bet 100% of flops like this, and there are already 33.5 blinds on the pot, I would safely go for a 1/3 pot c-bet (or even 1/4 pot), with all of my range that Squeezes CO x EP/EP: we are very strong when we do it (if our perceveid range/style of playing is TAG), and it is certain that all the hands that Squeeze are c-betting this specific flop combination.
Betting 1/2 pot is good at the micros, but at 10 NLHE players are way more sophisticated and have solid range reading, so when you go for such a huge sizing, on a flop where almost never you have the nuts, you might have given golden information for the player in the BTN.(if BTN is a regular. Although it seems very much a calling station, we cannot take definitive decisions based on uncertain data).
When BTN calls your 1/2 pot it is not scary at all, but it should make us think for a second, given that the flop doesn't have many draws (it doesn't contain a flush draw, only a back door and back doors do not have the right price to be chasing turns and rivers), the 2c doesn't connect to the J or the 8, and the OESD possible here is T9o/T9s, maybe Q9 (we block a lot these combos), and of course, given such a high VPIP preflop, BTN can have more nuts now, because it can have as values hands such as 22, 88, J8, even JJ that is not good enough to 4-bet in a spot like this, so it is easy to perceive that because BTN's VPIP is large, it can have more nutted hands on a dry flop like this than us. (by the same token, also more bluffs or potential bluffs).
BTN is calling here with floats, but the floats were commented like T9 and Q9, specially suited.
These days, players are way too smart and tend to be shoving a lot this flop, putting us on a very boring spot with QQ, KK, AA, AJ and AK. (we don't want to look like idiots at the table so we tend to be calling more shoves on the flop as usual versus an unbalanced player with stats of 26/20).

The Turn: We do not have optimal stats to be working here and taking decisions based upon "my guts told me that I should be doing X, Y or Z". For better decision making on situations like this, we will use the stats of C-BET FLOP, C-BET TURN, FOLD C-BET FLOP AND FOLD C-BET TURN.
As we don't know how often this player calls preflop IP (Call Open stat) in a very specific situation of Squeezed pot CO x EP/EP, we must take some guesses (sub-optimal).
This 5h doesn't change a lot the picture of the hands: hands that BTN called flop are still calling turn, so I don't see the check as a bad thing. BTN, on the other side (now guessing), if it has a large Bet vs Missed C-bet, or if BTN is reading your stats and observing that OOP, you usually c-bet more flops and checks more turns, it might take some advantage now that it came a flush draw of hearts on the turn (good card for bluffing?)
Some players love to commit this mistake of betting for information, and given that BTN's range is never capped with VPIP of 26%, it might has a flush draw of hearts, some suited aces with the SD combo draw, and the same T9 and Q9 that might have called you on the flop. (we must strongly consider that Villain should not have a lot of flush draws now on the turn, because they should be folding to 1/2 pot c-bet, unless it was a BDF+TP or BDF+2P, even so some players are raising it).
Given that our range is way too strong here on this turn, I believe it would be a mistake to be folding here (guessing again because we have no solid stats or sample of hands to be dealing with), since we must pay 2 for a pot of over 10, the math is very simple.
I don't know if the SPR or the weak ability of this BTN player will allow us to fold on many rivers, so we could be raising jam this turn for value on certain scenarios versus spewy that vomit chips on the table (guessing that it is overplaying its range and trying to bet mostly because you checked turn).

River Flush We don't believe that BTN has many flushes right now but many floats. However we are simply guessing and that's not good. The problem of this hearts on this river, BTN should be checking a ton a lot of two pair and set types without the blocker of hearts.
By the same token BTN will not have many flushes on a river like this, it will have a lot of value hands that shoudn't be jamming here, but checking behind, even some flushes:
If I had float flop with a back door flush (with no price for so paying it), turn I bluff my flush draw, and river I complete the flush, I know that CO's range is capped to strong hands, so if I go all-in it is a very easy fold for QQ, KK, AA, and all the bluffs of course and we want those hands to continue paying! It is not logic to be shoving flushes here, given easy fold equity for CO/Hero's range. Besides, we are almost sure that most of the Back Doors of Hearts don't float versus 1/2 pot c-bet but fold, so if we have to guess, let it do it with a little rationale.
Unless, of course, that the BTN player is putting CO on a flush type hand too, which is not uncommon at the micros. (in a miracle of the dealer that it decided to mock on our faces).
With all due respect to the regulars of 10 NLHE, I don't believe they are good enough to be bluffing a river like this, for example, only with a Ah/missed or Kh/missed, which would be damn good floats that puts a lot of pressure into QQ, KK and AA and sometimes they would fold on CO's shoes, but all-in here is a very risk movement for the BTN, and now it is very hard to believe this player is a regular of the field. (only 167 hands indicates newbie?).
We do not have enough information about Villain to be saying for sure that it was better to have check/jammed turn or if we should be hero calling river safely. I believe that BTN's bluffs right now are only the straight draws with T9 and Q9 (not so much..) for example, with a combo of hearts on its combos, and the flush draws with Ah/missed and Kh/missed.
The rest are only value hands that weak players tend to overplay and do crazy things where they should be certainly checking. So, given that players like this are not creative enough to be really bluffing with air on a river like this we can muck our QQ and be sure that BTN would be putting a shove like this with all of its value range, and it is very large:
66, 55, 22, maybe JJ, J8, 65, maybe 86, and even a bigger maybe QQ which we are even, KK and AA for a miracle, and a lot of missed/busted draws bluffs/pushes seeking fold equity.
We are guessing, sorry, sometimes it is very hard to say "to this" or "do that", because poker is not so simple as it seems.


Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa

 

[Sidetracked]

I think, as played, you have to call. Your check on the turn could indicate to villain that his AJ or maybe even TT is now good, and he thinks he's betting for value.

 

[0815am]

I don’t get most people’s suggestions here. I would be quite afraid of AA/KK and JJ.

Assuming a reasonable Tag at 10NL, what do you think he is coldcalling a 3B here with 2ppl left to act.

To me it feels like we are beset here more often then we see AJ or a random bluff.

 

[Aballinamion]

I don’t get most people’s suggestions here. I would be quite afraid of AA/KK and JJ.

Assuming a reasonable Tag at 10NL, what do you think he is coldcalling a 3B here with 2ppl left to act.

To me it feels like we are beset here more often then we see AJ or a random bluff.

Thank you for your attention. Yup, maybe BTN is a TAG, but given that we have only 167 hands played, we cannot say for sure.
I guess that only a real whale would be shoving river with, for example AhJx, with the missed flush draw and TPTK, very rare, but possible. Fishes would be shoving river with a ton of strong value hand such as Two Pair and Set types.
Yes, Villain will still have on its river range some AA, KK and JJ. The problem is that Hero/CO Squeezed preflop to 5x and got two callers oop (bloated pot) and then decided to commit itself by going for a 1/2 pot c-bet flop, which complicate a lot of scary and brick turn, because as we saw, given that CO already invested too much preflop and on the flop, it became simply impossible to fold QQ on the turn, given excellent price + possibility of BTN to be a whale.
I don't know how much stack CO had at the river, but it is not an easy fold, because CO invested a ton in the beginning of the story, turning almost any river fold ludicrous if not impossible.
I would find a way to fold this versus this specific kindda player. But I would make a 4.5 Squeeze preflop at maximum and IF I c-bet flop, I would go for 1/3 max. Thanks again, have a nice day!

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa

 

[siwanat99]

Hello there siwanat99, thank you for sharing your hand.

The Preflop action:

You squeezed preflop to 5x, and I guess your sizing is okay here. Three players enter into the pot and the player in the BTN also calls in the middle of the road. This usually means two things:

A) That BTN has a very strong range, since EP is yet to speak after BTN, so it is awaiting 4-bet/Squeezes.

B) That BTN perceived weak players on the blinds (SB and BB are both short stacked when the action happened), and decided to widen its cold calling range to play IP versus these guys, SB and BB, out of position.

In the case of element A, we will find a more capped range, with 88+ QJ, KQ, AQ, AK, and a lot of suited broadways and strong suited connectors such as T9,J9, Q9, 98, 76, etc.
In the case of element B, we will find a more uncapped range with 22+, all the suited connectors, even 32s, and all the broadways off and suited.

Given the limited data we have to deal with, VPIP of 26 and PFR of 20, for only 167 hands indicates that this BTN/Villain loves to call preflop so we can widen its range a little, or the element B a little bit, but without exaggeration. No conclusions about BTN player, it can be a REG, a Whale, a FISH, a LAG, an Aggro Donkey, whatever: 167 is not enough for optimal decision making. (We will have to be guessing here very soon, sorry).
Well, you Squeeze, BTN calls and UTG+1 calls, we have now a very complicated and big pot to play postflop with a player that we don't know for sure (167 hands).
The pot went to be of a size of 33.5 blinds preflop, and this alters completely the way we should play our ranges. Because of this huge sizing you will stack here a fair chunk of times with the top of your range whether you like it or not.

The Postflop

The Flop: This flop is medium-good for us, and in a 3-handed pot/Squeezed, we are going to be C-bettinf for value in a very high frequency, with almost 100% of our range. Sometimes Villain/Villains will notice this and exploit us on later streets.
We are betting here a lot of whiffed aces, such as AKs, AQs, AJ, even A8s, AA, KK, QQ are c-betting here in a high frequency and that's when huge problems begin to arise:
Considering that almost never we have the nuts in a situation like this (we do not have too much 22 and 88, we never have J8, J2, 82, even 22 or 88 (in a high frequency) on our Squeezing Range of CO x UTG/UTG+1: in situations like this, the best hand that we could have is JJ with top set, the ONLY hand that we can represent here. (AJ is not so comfortable, and so does KJ).
We are not blocking JJ, per se, we are blocking some combos of QJ for instance.
So, given that almost never we have the nuts, our JJ are checking this flop in a X low frequency to induce bluffs, and when JJ bets, given this flop is not very connected, JJ goes for 1/3 pot, because it doesn't need protection right now, or just a little protection.
Given that we c-bet 100% of flops like this, and there are already 33.5 blinds on the pot, I would safely go for a 1/3 pot c-bet (or even 1/4 pot), with all of my range that Squeezes CO x EP/EP: we are very strong when we do it (if our perceveid range/style of playing is TAG), and it is certain that all the hands that Squeeze are c-betting this specific flop combination.
Betting 1/2 pot is good at the micros, but at 10 NLHE players are way more sophisticated and have solid range reading, so when you go for such a huge sizing, on a flop where almost never you have the nuts, you might have given golden information for the player in the BTN.(if BTN is a regular. Although it seems very much a calling station, we cannot take definitive decisions based on uncertain data).
When BTN calls your 1/2 pot it is not scary at all, but it should make us think for a second, given that the flop doesn't have many draws (it doesn't contain a flush draw, only a back door and back doors do not have the right price to be chasing turns and rivers), the 2c doesn't connect to the J or the 8, and the OESD possible here is T9o/T9s, maybe Q9 (we block a lot these combos), and of course, given such a high VPIP preflop, BTN can have more nuts now, because it can have as values hands such as 22, 88, J8, even JJ that is not good enough to 4-bet in a spot like this, so it is easy to perceive that because BTN's VPIP is large, it can have more nutted hands on a dry flop like this than us. (by the same token, also more bluffs or potential bluffs).
BTN is calling here with floats, but the floats were commented like T9 and Q9, specially suited.
These days, players are way too smart and tend to be shoving a lot this flop, putting us on a very boring spot with QQ, KK, AA, AJ and AK. (we don't want to look like idiots at the table so we tend to be calling more shoves on the flop as usual versus an unbalanced player with stats of 26/20).

The Turn: We do not have optimal stats to be working here and taking decisions based upon "my guts told me that I should be doing X, Y or Z". For better decision making on situations like this, we will use the stats of C-BET FLOP, C-BET TURN, FOLD C-BET FLOP AND FOLD C-BET TURN.
As we don't know how often this player calls preflop IP (Call Open stat) in a very specific situation of Squeezed pot CO x EP/EP, we must take some guesses (sub-optimal).
This 5h doesn't change a lot the picture of the hands: hands that BTN called flop are still calling turn, so I don't see the check as a bad thing. BTN, on the other side (now guessing), if it has a large Bet vs Missed C-bet, or if BTN is reading your stats and observing that OOP, you usually c-bet more flops and checks more turns, it might take some advantage now that it came a flush draw of hearts on the turn (good card for bluffing?)
Some players love to commit this mistake of betting for information, and given that BTN's range is never capped with VPIP of 26%, it might has a flush draw of hearts, some suited aces with the SD combo draw, and the same T9 and Q9 that might have called you on the flop. (we must strongly consider that Villain should not have a lot of flush draws now on the turn, because they should be folding to 1/2 pot c-bet, unless it was a BDF+TP or BDF+2P, even so some players are raising it).
Given that our range is way too strong here on this turn, I believe it would be a mistake to be folding here (guessing again because we have no solid stats or sample of hands to be dealing with), since we must pay 2 for a pot of over 10, the math is very simple.
I don't know if the SPR or the weak ability of this BTN player will allow us to fold on many rivers, so we could be raising jam this turn for value on certain scenarios versus spewy that vomit chips on the table (guessing that it is overplaying its range and trying to bet mostly because you checked turn).

River Flush We don't believe that BTN has many flushes right now but many floats. However we are simply guessing and that's not good. The problem of this hearts on this river, BTN should be checking a ton a lot of two pair and set types without the blocker of hearts.
By the same token BTN will not have many flushes on a river like this, it will have a lot of value hands that shoudn't be jamming here, but checking behind, even some flushes:
If I had float flop with a back door flush (with no price for so paying it), turn I bluff my flush draw, and river I complete the flush, I know that CO's range is capped to strong hands, so if I go all-in it is a very easy fold for QQ, KK, AA, and all the bluffs of course and we want those hands to continue paying! It is not logic to be shoving flushes here, given easy fold equity for CO/Hero's range. Besides, we are almost sure that most of the Back Doors of Hearts don't float versus 1/2 pot c-bet but fold, so if we have to guess, let it do it with a little rationale.
Unless, of course, that the BTN player is putting CO on a flush type hand too, which is not uncommon at the micros. (in a miracle of the dealer that it decided to mock on our faces).
With all due respect to the regulars of 10 NLHE, I don't believe they are good enough to be bluffing a river like this, for example, only with a Ah/missed or Kh/missed, which would be damn good floats that puts a lot of pressure into QQ, KK and AA and sometimes they would fold on CO's shoes, but all-in here is a very risk movement for the BTN, and now it is very hard to believe this player is a regular of the field. (only 167 hands indicates newbie?).
We do not have enough information about Villain to be saying for sure that it was better to have check/jammed turn or if we should be hero calling river safely. I believe that BTN's bluffs right now are only the straight draws with T9 and Q9 (not so much..) for example, with a combo of hearts on its combos, and the flush draws with Ah/missed and Kh/missed.
The rest are only value hands that weak players tend to overplay and do crazy things where they should be certainly checking. So, given that players like this are not creative enough to be really bluffing with air on a river like this we can muck our QQ and be sure that BTN would be putting a shove like this with all of its value range, and it is very large:
66, 55, 22, maybe JJ, J8, 65, maybe 86, and even a bigger maybe QQ which we are even, KK and AA for a miracle, and a lot of missed/busted draws bluffs/pushes seeking fold equity.
We are guessing, sorry, sometimes it is very hard to say "to this" or "do that", because poker is not so simple as it seems.


Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa

sorry I don't understand why should I check/jam OTT is that for value or I put too much money on pre and OTF

Should I just check OTF and bet small OTT 70% river?

is it good to go 3-street (All-in) I'm not sure what hands will call me 3-street All-in

If u bet 1/3 or 1/4 OTF will u bet OTT river and what size ?

 

[fundiver199]

Assuming a reasonable Tag at 10NL, what do you think he is coldcalling a 3B here with 2ppl left to act.

Not with AA or KK for sure, because what then is he ever 4-betting? Not saying that people will never trap with AA or KK, but that is the exception not the rule, and especially for a player like this. 26/20 is not a TAG at full ring its a LAG.

 

[0815am]

Not with AA or KK for sure, because what then is he ever 4-betting? Not saying that people will never trap with AA or KK, but that is the exception not the rule, and especially for a player like this. 26/20 is not a TAG at full ring its a LAG.

That makes sense. Actually didn’t pay attention to the stats.

 

[Aballinamion]

Hello there siwanat99, thanks a lot for your corcern.
1) Sorry for my candor, I didn't say you 'should' check/jam OTT, I said you could, which is completely different. Sorry if I didn't express myself properly:

"I don't know if the SPR or the weak ability of this BTN player will allow us to fold on many rivers, so we could be raising jam this turn for value on certain scenarios versus spewy that vomit chips on the table"

We 'could' be check/jamming turn for value versus whales and sick idiots, period. The problem here is that we are not sure who Villain is, because 167 hands is not a great number for optimal decision making.
Besides, when Villain calls flop, we have no ideia if its range is more capped or uncapped: two pairs and sets could and could not raise the flop, so we must keep its entire range that called preflop/flop on the turn.
Anyways, we are assuming very much that Villain is a recreational. In this specific case, you could check/jam river for value and be paid, something like 80% of times for dominated and spaz hands. 20% we are losing it for anything non-sense it hits, it is what it is, what matter here is the long-run and the profitability of the move.
The other reason is that, in spite of your 5x Preflop Squeeze to be okay, given the fact that two players enters into the pot, the postflop pot will be larger than usual, and we must have a gameplan for this specific scenario.
This gameplan is how do we play with our ENTIRE range that Squeezes preflop IP x EP and get two callers, to play a huge pot on the flop, OOP. We must also know how does Villain uses to play, or have some ideia of how it plays its entire range, and play in a manner that we can extract the max value from the ENTIRE range of our opponent.
IMO, the only value part of your range that could be c-betting 1/2 pot is JJ with Top Set and maybe AA, 'maybe' it will depend if both EP and BTN opponents are whales that will do whatever non-sense call, even so it's kindda spaz.
Since that you also doesn't have too many bluffs on the flop, because this flop doesn't connect very good with your IP Squeezing Range x EP (very strong most of times), your range tends to be more capped and Villain's range tends to be almost always uncapped here.
I agree with part of the population here that when Villain calls a Squeeze in a spot like this, it is very strong, and unfortunately it will trap some KK and AA, and there's nothing we can do about it but put a note on this player of how it played its range and move on. One day you will play another hand with him/her or with another poker player who uses to commit the same 'mistakes' or sub-optimal moves. (quoting Polished Poker Vol I, available here on the Forum https://www.cardschat.com/forum/cash-games-11/polished-poker-vol-i-study-group-227214//).

Our analysis, nonetheless, brought to us the probabilities based on the very Villain stats, and VPIP 26 PFR 20 are stats that we are not expecting too many "traps" or "Aces". We are not respecting a lot players like this, so you are right when you decide to go for stacks versus this a guy on a spot like this, based on the very statistic available.
Players sometimes decides to be very creative and make a lot of mistakes, and I have a guess that this is the kind of BTN player. If she/he shows on the River, AA, KK, JJ, or another strong hand, good for her/him, congratulations, nice hand, write down the note and life goes on.
I would say a completely different thing, if for example, Villain stats are 9/7/3 for 167 hands played: this guy tends to be a 'regular', a NIT one. Or even more respected TAG stats for cash tables such as 20/18, 19/16, 18/16, 20/16 (complicated TAG because it will seem very Loose Aggressive on the short run), etc. But 26/20? Whoot?

2) Should I just check OTF and bet small OTT 70% river?

You never should be 'either' checking or 'c-betting', any spot a 100% of times, as master Evan Jarvis spoke on a comment here a few threads ago, when I find it I paste the link here. What we should do a 100% of times is mix our moves to make the lives of our adversaries harder, and do it in a reasonable frequency, so they will never know whether we are bluff or whether we are value.
This is one of the cores of preflop and postflop gameplan, i.e that we are going to play the same hand/range in many different manners (versus regulars, or players that we consider to be regulars and might observe some flaw to exploit), for example:

We raise preflop with AA, only BB calls flop comes A49 rainbow, what should you do versus a regular? Mix up between checking and c-betting. How much? Depends on your style, on the flow with the Villain, etc.
Given that you have almost all the combos of Aces, and Villain very rarely will have one, we can go for checking this flop, so we try to force some bluffs or BB to overplay some 4x, or 9x, or whatever and we go for c-betting this flop in the same ratio/frequency, now the size will rely on many things, I would prefer 1/3 pot because the flop is not connected enough and BB will have air, etc.
We can be calling preflop with AA to protect our calling range, and protec our postflop range for some scenarios where Villains will simply triple barrel because we called preflop, assuming that our range is never capped here etc. (for example calling preflop with AA versus Aggro Donky from SB) We can be 3-betting AA and can be Cold Calling 3-bet with AA in a frequency X, to mix up our plays, to not give away too much information for regulars, etc; In the same frequency you will be 4-betting AA, etc.
My point here is that we can never be simply 3-betting 100% of times, calling 100% of times of doing whatever a 100% of times because this unbalances our game and makes the reading very easy for sharks.
You gotta feel your flow, the flow of the players on the table so you might decide if really compensates goes for checking (to induce more bluffs) or if we decide to go for c-betting (to induce more value, because we believe QQ is ahead of these calling ranges).
What I am trying to say is that if you go a 100% of times here with QQ+, betting 1/2 pot, 3-handed pot, you are overplaying the top of your range a little, in a spot where almost never you will have the nuts (JJ). If JJ with Top Set bets 1/2 pot on a dry flop like this, it is self-value betting its own range, i.e bluffing with the nuts, and if both UTG and BTN folds to our 1/2 pot C-bet, boom, this is a huge -EV move, because we private ourselves of making value with the top of our range because we were greedy enough and pretty fair with the sizing of our c-bet flop.
Players are always trying to extract value from AA, KK, TPTK, but they usually forget the rest of the range, the semi-bluffs, and the pure air bluffs: how does Villains could continue paying 1/2 c-bet here, utmostly dominated with Ax high for example? Easy fold. Some players like me are easily folding AJ on a flop like this, because when you go for 1/2 pot on the flop, YOU HAVE NO BLUFFS, and I doubt your bluffs are going for a 1/2 pot c-bet here, such as AQ and AK for example, would you? I don't think so.
I don't like to bet for value in spots where I don't bet for bluff, plain and simple. On a flop like this I barely have any bluffs, so why would I bother to make a huge pot to grow even more when I can evaluate my equity sometimes and when I bet, I give no range information for Villains?

3) is it good to go 3-street (All-in) I'm not sure what hands will call me 3-street All-in

If you are not sure what hands will call 3 streets of value, why did you go for 1/2 pot c-bet? Sorry, I don't mean to be rude here, just realistic. One good exercise, without propaganda, it is to use some range calculator such as Equilab or Flopzilla and put on the matrix what do you think it is Villain range that calls Squeeze IP, so you put all the pocket pairs, a bunch of suited connectors, some broadways, etc, because it seems pretty much that this Villain calls preflop too much.

4) If u bet 1/3 or 1/4 OTF will u bet OTT river and what size ?

I don't know if I can get 3 streets of value here with JJ+ for example. So I don't know for sure if I go for 1/3 pot or 1/4 OTF that if I will be c-betting turn or either river. If I get into the river I would mostly go for check-calling, because the pot will not be so big (I will find a check versus a regular with QQ+ in spots like this a lot), if Villains goes for even a 100% pot on the river we can safely call for protection.
In this case the pot grows too much and it is almost impossible to fold Q's on this river, given all of that we already discussed. Put notes on players, take as many notes as you can, because this will prevent you from playing on "blind spots", where we are guessing a lot Villain's tendencies and ranges.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa

 

[mara2259]

You have a monster preflop, but not of the first magnitude. If an ace or king appears on the table, you cannot avoid problems. Let's look at your actions from the side. Here is a raise, a call and three players after you. The player on the button is your main problem; on all the streets he will be the last to make a decision. You should try to force him out of the game or at least determine the strength of his hand and the seriousness of his intentions. I think a re-raise of $ 1 into a pot of $ 0.55 is clearly not enough for this. There is very little postflop bet in half a pot. After the turn, the river becomes too wide and uncontrollable. See options on the street and flashdro. And here she is a cherry on the cake - a check on your part. There are several draw options on the table, and you give the villain a free card. However, he refused your gift by betting another $ 2. Now answer yourself the question, if your opponent draws a straight or a flush means after the turn he has no ready hand yet, would you put extra chips in a pot in this situation? Of course you have about 60BB left and you can concede and fold the overpair. But in your place I would try to beat the pair from the jacks and lower, or lose to the kings or aces.