$10 NLHE 6-max: Would you all in on the river here?

[blueskies]

I have JhJd UTG and I open to 33c. It's a bit larger than my normal opening size but due to a couple of loose callers on my left, I decided to pump it up a little.

BTN calls and BB calls.

Flop is 2c8s7c.

BB comes out firing 74c into the $1.04 pot. I thought about raising here but decided to call. With a somewhat wet board he could have flopped a set and he's protecting. If it's me I am not checking either. The other thing I thought he might have is an 8. I decided to play pot control. BTN also calls.

Turn's 8c which doesn't make me happy. BB bets $1.54 into the $3.26 pot. It's a smaller bet relative to the pot than the flop bet. I called with the intention of folding if BTN raises. BTN folds.

River is 8d.

He bets $3 into the $6.34 pot.

I was pretty happy to see the third 8 on the board because it nullifies a set of 2s and 7s as well as a flush. So now suddenly my JJ is the fourth nuts. I lose to QQ+ (unlikely since he didn't 3bet pre) and 8, that's it.

But given the flop and turn action I can't rule out the 8h in his hand. Plus if I shoved what worse hand calls? 99 and TT? A flush? (I didn't put him on a flush because I think he would have checked the flop if he had a flush draw) Would 22 and 77 bet the river?

He played it so aggressively from the getgo that I decided to just call. I don't recall playing against this guy before so I took the cautious route.

Would you shove the river? I only had a bit over $7.50 left.

Spoiler

Ah7s. He gave him too much credit as I didn't think a 7 would be played like that. I tagged him and will be less cautious against him next time.

 

[Endwarfin]

No reason to shove the river unless you think your opponent will put you on bluffs alot or seems to be a calling station.

You might occasionally fold out AA KK or QQ but I would venture that you're folding out worse and getting called by better more than 45% of the time.

If you're going for thin value you could try to click it back to $6 for the thinnest of value but you put yourself in a tough spot if villain shoves for your remaining $4.50.

 

[Redman1902]

Looking at the betting sizes of the opponent, it looks very much like he is not very strong on the river. Also, I would give him very few flush combinations that might make a too loose call on the river against a shove.

Just in case you have a read that he would always raise preflop QQ+, you can try a thin value raise with JJ targeting his 7x, 99, TT like hands.

 

[blueskies]

The reason I do not believe he has QQ+ is that preflop there were already two people in the pot, if he just flatted, then it's a threeway flop and he's out of position. I assumed he knew enough to know he has to threebet a premium pair there.

 

[300HPGOD]

I agree with your thinking as well that villain very likely does not have QQ+. They did donk lead on the flop which to me narrows it down a bit. I am not sure a set always leads there even on wet boards as they will more likely look for a check raise instead of making a large bet that could easily fold everyone else out. The donk lead to me is 1010, 99, 8x, and possibly some 7x. I dont think the donk lead for that sizing is indicative of a flush draw.

When thinking that, the river then comes down to 8x or not and there is a much greater chance of a non 8x hand then them having the case 8. I disagree with you though that villain is not calling a lot off here. One is (assuming we are the effective stack) we would be putting in another 4.50 on top of a pot that would be already be over $9 and villain most likely has a boat of some kind. Most villains at low stakes (I assume this is betonline where 10NL is the smallest game they offer) will not fold boats easily. I would think villain would call off even a boat with 2x of some kind here so I would jam it in after they make the $3 bet. If they have the 8 then its bad luck in my opinion but there are plenty of hands that villain could call off here. Not saying they should be calling but thinking of the typical villains at low stakes I dont think they are folding a boat when you make it 4.50 more on the river after what they already put in the middle.

 

[blueskies]

I agree with your thinking as well that villain very likely does not have QQ+. They did donk lead on the flop which to me narrows it down a bit. I am not sure a set always leads there even on wet boards as they will more likely look for a check raise instead of making a large bet that could easily fold everyone else out. The donk lead to me is 1010, 99, 8x, and possibly some 7x. I dont think the donk lead for that sizing is indicative of a flush draw.

When thinking that, the river then comes down to 8x or not and there is a much greater chance of a non 8x hand then them having the case 8. I disagree with you though that villain is not calling a lot off here. One is (assuming we are the effective stack) we would be putting in another 4.50 on top of a pot that would be already be over $9 and villain most likely has a boat of some kind. Most villains at low stakes (I assume this is betonline where 10NL is the smallest game they offer) will not fold boats easily. I would think villain would call off even a boat with 2x of some kind here so I would jam it in after they make the $3 bet. If they have the 8 then its bad luck in my opinion but there are plenty of hands that villain could call off here. Not saying they should be calling but thinking of the typical villains at low stakes I dont think they are folding a boat when you make it 4.50 more on the river after what they already put in the middle.

Yes I agree with you. When i had more time to think afterwards i felt i shd have all in. Bol doesnt allow a lot of time and i just had to click something before i could run thru everything in my head.

 

[eetenor]

I have JhJd UTG and I open to 33c. It's a bit larger than my normal opening size but due to a couple of loose callers on my left, I decided to pump it up a little.

BTN calls and BB calls.

Flop is 2c8s7c.

BB comes out firing 74c into the $1.04 pot. I thought about raising here but decided to call. With a somewhat wet board he could have flopped a set and he's protecting. If it's me I am not checking either. The other thing I thought he might have is an 8. I decided to play pot control. BTN also calls.

Turn's 8c which doesn't make me happy. BB bets $1.54 into the $3.26 pot. It's a smaller bet relative to the pot than the flop bet. I called with the intention of folding if BTN raises. BTN folds.

River is 8d.

He bets $3 into the $6.34 pot.

I was pretty happy to see the third 8 on the board because it nullifies a set of 2s and 7s as well as a flush. So now suddenly my JJ is the fourth nuts. I lose to QQ+ (unlikely since he didn't 3bet pre) and 8, that's it.

But given the flop and turn action I can't rule out the 8h in his hand. Plus if I shoved what worse hand calls? 99 and TT? A flush? (I didn't put him on a flush because I think he would have checked the flop if he had a flush draw) Would 22 and 77 bet the river?

He played it so aggressively from the getgo that I decided to just call. I don't recall playing against this guy before so I took the cautious route.

Would you shove the river? I only had a bit over $7.50 left.

Spoiler

Ah7s. He gave him too much credit as I didn't think a 7 would be played like that. I tagged him and will be less cautious against him next time.

Thank you for posting

Have not seen results

Player pool data helps in spots like this. Your player pool may approach the game differently or not.

We create a data list off table to use in-game by asking ourselves the following questions.
We create a list for each street
Flop
1 Does 2 pair lead for this sizing? Why not trap?
2 Why do sets lead on this board? This is a board that you miss a lot why lead.
Why this size?
3 Why would a strong flush draw lead?
Why bet a size that may get the third player to fold?
4 Why would a straight draw lead out OOP
5 If the Villain thought your bet sizing meant a big hand preflop why not check raise the top part of range?
6 Does this sizing expect to get folds? Does your player pool play nofoldem?

Repeating the above exercise for your player pool on each street will help you play vs your player pool.

We do the above because at the skill level of your player pool your V are not well balanced so their bets tell us a great deal about what they are trying to get us to do.

Of course we can only ever estimate their actions but those actions do suggests trends.

As played in my player pool for this sizing on flop

18x A8 K8 etc not 87
2 TT 99
3 Axcc
4 A7
5 lower sets

Does the V river bet have bluffs? Is this the standard bluff size? What is the V thinking they will get value from if they have 2-5 hands from list? Do your V understand value targeting?
The question how much of the above range does your V call with?

The last question we have to ask is do I need to get full value for this spot vs losing more in this spot if your V are like mine and 8x is the most frequent hand. Will this player not give us their chips in future hands in easier spots?


Checking the results now.

A7 a common type of lead by new players A8 is the more frequent however so we really cannot discount it in future situations without a second data piece of river sizing. If you play this player again look for river sizing changes when they hold the nuts.

Hope this helps

 

[Foxie12340]

I would probably just call too. Depending on the player and how he has been playing it sounds like calling is best