This is a discussion on $10 NLHE 6-max: Two pairs vs turn check-raise in deep stacks within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 27/20/1.4
NL10, deep stacks
Villain is 27/20, 3-bet 7
Sample size: 372 hands
PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
I like your game, but it cannot be profitably applied in the long run in micro betting. These lines are suitable for high stakes, since players work with defined ranges and broader structures, both attack and defense. In this hand we are calling in hopes of catching some medium pocket like 88/99, which is unlikely in a villain here.
76s from HJ is a bit loose, and so is calling his 3-bet. But ok you are deep and in position, so I guess, this is sort of fine or at least not terrible.
You flop top pair on a low board and face a small C-bet. Easy call.
You improve to top two, but the card also puts out straight and flush possibilities. He check to you. I think, its fine to bet here to charge like an overpair with or without a spade, or for that matter high cards with a spade, although I suspect, that at least As would usually have bet itself.
The interesting point is of course, when he check-raise. This just suck, and unfortunately this is, what good players will do sometimes, especially when you are deep. I dont blame you for calling, but to be honest I dont think, this is a bluff very often. If he had that As I think, he would just have continued betting, because why make his bluffs more expensive, than they need to be. If on the other hand he now has a flush, then check-raising makes sense, because he want to try and get your entire stack.
Unsurpricingly the rest of the money now goes in. I think he has even less bluffs now, because AK or KQ with a spade now made top pair, and I dont think, he is bluffing with top pair and certainly not jamming for value either. You only beat a bluff, and I just dont think a typical 10NL regular is bluffing here 30% of the time. So I think, you need to fold, and saving a full buyin in a spot like this is going to mean a lot to your winrate in the long run.
Villain seems solid by looking at his stats. Nothing unordinary. As played, on the river especially being deep, you have all the sets (except for KK) in your range. That's why it is less likely that Villain will bet an extra buyin with less than a flush here. In this situation my minimum calling hand would be a set with a spade.
I wouldnt be opening this hand, even 5 or 6 handed UTG. It looks like a pretty hand but it can get you stuck in certain hands and most likely being out of position will hinder your chances of getting max value when you do flop it. This is better as a fold for UTG and would play just fine if you knew you would only play against the blinds or were in a spot where you knew you would have position.
On the flop I am going to go against the grain here and say that I like a raise. I like a raise because I dont think too many players (not saying some wouldnt but overall most wont) would play AA-QQ this way and definitely would not play 99-JJ this way with only betting roughly 1/3rd pot with two suited cards on the flop. Some might play AA this way if they have the ace of spades but what I am getting here is more than likely they do not have an over pair. Villain probably has two overcards that may be both spades, one spade or no spades. With only having a pair of 6s here, I know I would hate most turn cards so getting villain to fold is not a bad thing in this spot. I would also want to see how they react to the raise which might allow me to get away from this hand more cheaply than to just call down. The other reason why I like a raise here is since we have position, this is the easiest way to pot control the hand the rest of the way. If we just call here we will more than likely face a lead on the turn and have a tough decision to make (unless of course we improve which I am not counting on) but if we raise we potentially take control of the hand and can expect a check to us on the turn. If villain happens to re raise us then we walk away knowing we were beat and depending on the raise size by us, not lose too much.
The turn as played is interesting card since we improve but the flush gets there. I am all for betting this street but I would not go as big. We are only protecting against a flush draw here and if I am right above then we are not going against a pocket pair and at worst are going against cards like AK or AQ of spades. We dont have to worry about a single over card hitting but only a spade so I would advocate betting something like 45-55% of pot there instead of 2/3rds. We want enough to get value from hands that villain that our drawing, give them the odds to be drawing against it, and also have a bit more protection compared to betting 2/3rds when villain would up just nailing the flush.
The raise on the turn to us is just pure throw up in your mouth time that we all hate running into. I would hate to fold our hand but if I believe (and I really do lol) that villain has no over pairs and they only have overcards that could have hit the flush, I think we have to fold here. If its a bluff, its just a damn good one but if we call this here then what are we doing on the river? I dont like calling here on the turn and then folding a non spade river card. I would feel like if I am calling the turn then I am calling the river on non spade cards which I really dont want to do since I would know the river bet is going to be on the large side whether they are bluffing or whether they have it.