$10 NLHE 6-max: Turn straight + flush draw, river action (200bb+ deep)

R

RamdeeBen

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Hi guys, what do you think I do on this river?

Is it a small bet/fold spot or a checking back spot?

Villian is your average TAG. He is by no means spewy.

When he calls my raise on the turn, I of course have him on "something"..just not sure what exactly at this point. Over pairs makes the most sense due to his 3bet pre but that's about it, or maybe slow played sets.

Problem I have, is I think it would really suck to bet/fold this spot, but I also think checking back this spot sucks. He might well turn over JJ+ in this spot when the board pairs and we can get some value from those.

Thoughts?

ps: Don't like my turn bet sizing..(maybe $6-$6.50 s better?)

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

saw flop | saw showdown

BB ($27.10)
UTG ($11.41)
Hero (MP) ($23.26)
Button ($6.31)
SB ($1.90)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 8
heart.gif
, 7
heart.gif

1 fold, Hero bets $0.30, 2 folds, BB raises to $0.90, Hero calls $0.60

Flop: ($1.85) 6
diamond.gif
, 7
spade.gif
, 5
heart.gif
(2 players)
BB bets $1, Hero calls $1

Turn: ($3.85) 4
heart.gif
(2 players)
BB bets $2.20, Hero raises to $5, BB calls $2.80

River: ($13.85) 6
club.gif
(2 players)
BB checks, Hero ?
 
Yoshimiii

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Raise more on the turn because you're both so deep like u said and I don't see him 3 betting with 8/9 here. Once he checks the river I would bet around $4 and hope that he has an overpair that he can't fold, he could have a full house here if he is a decent reg so I would bet small, around $3.5 to get a call from overpair and fold to a shove/raise. If he is decent though and multi-tabling lots I would probably just check for fear of being raised.
 
J

Jonny03UK

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Is he likely to to slowplay big hands? Does he check raise often? Does he check raise the river often?

Putting myself in his shoes, if I had a full house on the river I am NOT slowplaying that. I would never check first hoping that the villain (you) would bet. I wouldn't be surprised at an overpair with the the 3bet pre and the double barrel cbet. With him calling that turn it almost looks as though he's finding it hard to fold an overpair even with even though he should perhaps be admitting defeat. He might just not put you on anything there and think you're trying to steal the pot... but at the same time, if he has something good, why not reraise you with an all in?

Trying to read him... 3betting a MP raise just doesn't put him on 44 or 55 and with you having a 7 and 8 it's less likely he has either 77 or 88 and the board pairing 6s again makes it less likely he has 66. I'd rule out a full house or a better straight here because of this.

I'm with you in thinking he has JJ+ or maybe QQ+/AK.

Because of this I think your best line is a bet/fold. A couple of weeks ago I'd probably be checking behind on this but after posting a few hands and being told that it's +EV to bet in this spot I think that's your best choice too. There's no harm in checking behind if you're worried about the raise or just that curious as to what he actually has but I'd imagine you're actually good to bet in this situation.
 
acky100

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Theres no harm in bet folding, villain is pretty dumb to pay you off with JJ here but i could see it happening, its not like anyone ever x/raises a bluff here so you shouldnt feel bad about bet folding.
 
youregoodmate

youregoodmate

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Yeah I'd bet about $8 to get calls from overpairs, then obv fold to a raise. Theres still value to be had here.
 
Deco

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I check back. Are 10nl regs really bad enough to call the turn and river with an overpair?

I'd have put villains range on sets, straights flush draws and maybe two pairs once he calls the turn. That range isn't so great no more, sets beat us, two pairs have either filled out or are counter fitted and weaker straights may not call alongside the busted flush draws.

+1 to a bigger turn raise.
 
Last edited:
Deco

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Putting myself in his shoes, if I had a full house on the river I am NOT slowplaying that. I would never check first hoping that the villain (you) would bet.

It isn't slowplaying. Checking to the last streets c-better is the standard thing to do here. Calling this slowplaying is like calling checkraising sets vs a flop c-bet slowplaying.

Also villain check raising is the only way he will get stacks in.

I'm with you in thinking he has JJ+ or maybe QQ+/AK.

Do you call the turn with these hands?

Trying to read him... 3betting a MP raise just doesn't put him on 44 or 55 and with you having a 7 and 8 it's less likely he has either 77 or 88 and the board pairing 6s again makes it less likely he has 66. I'd rule out a full house or a better straight here because of this.

Good read, but villain is actually in the co. I made the same mistake and had to edit my first post.
 
youregoodmate

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I check back. Are 10nl regs really bad enough to call the turn and river with an overpair?

I'd have put villains range on sets, straights flush draws and maybe two pairs once he calls the turn. That range isn't so great no more, sets beat us, two pairs have either filled out or are counter fitted and weaker straights may not call alongside the busted flush draws.

+1 to a bigger turn raise.

I think so, thats why Id bet a little more than half the pot. Is villain likely to be 3 betting 22-88 oop?

The more I think about it the more I think check but then I think a small bet would be good, maybe less than half the pot.
 
Deco

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Is villain likely to be 3 betting 22-88 oop?

I'd suspect 67, 89 the most but ye more and more people do this now with pocket pairs now. I personally think they're horrible hands to 3bet although leatherass actually advocates it in his books

I think so, thats why Id bet a little more than half the pot.

I think most fish would find a fold for this river, I'd bet vs a fish as they'd call with lower straights aa would be a very occasional lol showdown.

I can't see a reg betting the turn with aa either.
 
Matt Vaughan

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FWIW, I probably ALWAYS check-raise the nuts on the river here. Also, seems to me that villain is in the BB? Villain acts before us in each

I check back. Are 10nl regs really bad enough to call the turn and river with an overpair?

I'd have put villains range on sets, straights flush draws and maybe two pairs once he calls the turn. That range isn't so great no more, sets beat us, two pairs have either filled out or are counter fitted and weaker straights may not call alongside the busted flush draws.

+1 to a bigger turn raise.


Lololol ok now wait a minute. Deco, idk what stakes you play - I'm not making assumptions or calling anyone out btw - but I don't think any "TAG-ish regs" at 10nl are 3betting 22-88. Also point out that there are only so many PP combos that hit this board left... 1 combo of 77, 1 combo of 66, 3 combos of 55, 3 combos of 44. So even less likely imo b/c the lower cards are the ones with more combos available.

With similar logic, do you see that he can't have 76s here? No combination of 76s is possible here because of the suits of the cards we can see (a 6 or 7 of each suit is visible to us). OP said villain was anything but spewy, so doubt he's 3betting tiny offsuit connectors... And fwiw the only straight flush draws he could have are 63hh and 32hh exactly. And he is NEVER playing these this way (though we do beat both of these).

Obviously he has a ton of two pair in his range on the turn since the board pairs - did you mean flopped 2 pair? Again this is basically impossible. No combos of 76s, just 1 combo of 54s.

It may seem ridiculous, but it's actually more likely that he flopped it here and is worried you filled up than that he filled up himself imo. 98s has 3 combos, and is something that a TAG reg COULD feel comfortable 3betting at 10nl.

But most likely of all:

Villain - "Sweet, KK!! I'ma 3bet dis ho."
~Hero calls 3bet~
Villain - "Yussss. Gonna own him."
~Flop, Villain bets, Hero calls~
Villain - "Aw yeah, takin' him down."
~Turn~
Villain - "Nawt dah best card, but he prob has JJ - time to pwn!!"
~Villain bets, Hero raises~
Villain - "Oh shit. Oh shit. Oh shit. What do I do? I can't fold KK to one raise... that's the scariest board in the world. He has to raise air here. CAWL."
~Villain calls~
~River~
"Okay don't get crazy. Don't bet. Please don't bet."


Okay maybe not QUITE like that, but you get the idea. :rolleyes:
 
natsgrampy

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I am betting this river 100% of the time, half the pot.

IMO villain has JJ+ or Ax hearts. By checking the river, he has thrown in the towel and will fold to any bet.
 
Deco

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Who says he's restricted to 3betting suited connectors? 89o has a mighty 12 combos alone.

Perhaps this is a stakes thing (i don't play 10nl) but imo your all seriously underestimating regs if you think they're dumb enough to:

*bet turn for value where nothing worse is ever calling.
*call a turn raise on a 4 straight board. (i snap fold two pair and lower straights)
*call a river bet.

Most fish aren't this bad. Villains range that has us beat is thin for all the reasons you give and more, but villains river calling range is even thinner.
 
Matt Vaughan

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If he is a TAG he is basically by definition not 3betting that wide of a range to include 98o. I'm not saying he never EVER does, but there's no way it's in his default range.

Imo you're seriously overestimating 10nl regs. Plenty of 10nl regs have no idea what they are doing. And don't ignore the spaz factor.

But basically yeah, facing the turn raise, he prob doesn't really think an overpair is beat that often. The raise obv scares him, but is he really folding $2.80 more into that pot? I doubt it.
 
Matt Vaughan

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In fact now that I think about it, A8 is prob more likely than 98, at least for the offsuit combos.
 
Deco

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If he is a TAG he is basically by definition not 3betting that wide of a range to include 98o. I'm not saying he never EVER does, but there's no way it's in his default range.

You can't judge a villains 3bet range based on whether he is a tag or lag. I've seen 26/23 with tiny 3bet%s and Tags with huge ones. Not to mention what hands they choose to invlude in to their bluff ranges which can vary so wildly I wouldn't even begin to rule any hand out. I personally 3bet 89o alot and I'm no Lag.

There are 30combos of hands out there that beat us, whether villains 3bets them or not heavily negates them but not nearly as much as we should negate QQ+ for betting the turn, calling a turn raise, and calling the river. I found the liklihood of villain doing this so unlikely I haven't even asked what villains 3bet% is.
 
frozensprx

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Based on the way this hand played out, I would most likely assume that the villain's check on the river indicates that he had an overpair and was trying to bet to get you to lay down the straight draw (and possibly flush draw on turn). I think the villain realized that you most likely wouldn't be calling him and re-raising on only a draw, so he realized that his overpair wasn't any good, and he will check/fold the river or check/ call a small bet. OR you could disregard everything i just typed and he could've hit a set on the flop and bet both the flop and the turn to make you pay to draw...then he filled up on the river and checked to you to look weak so you would bet your straight and he could raise you.
 
youregoodmate

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Yeah im a tag and my 3bet is usually high, although not often oop. Its obvious this is really close between a bet and a check. The quality of the villain at 10nl is the debate. I doubt it matters much EV wise if people are so split.
 
Matt Vaughan

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I agree youregoodmate, but this spot is really peaking my interest, haha.

You can't judge a villains 3bet range based on whether he is a tag or lag. I've seen 26/23 with tiny 3bet%s and Tags with huge ones. Not to mention what hands they choose to invlude in to their bluff ranges which can vary so wildly I wouldn't even begin to rule any hand out. I personally 3bet 89o alot and I'm no Lag.

There are 30combos of hands out there that beat us, whether villains 3bets them or not heavily negates them but not nearly as much as we should negate QQ+ for betting the turn, calling a turn raise, and calling the river. I found the liklihood of villain doing this so unlikely I haven't even asked what villains 3bet% is.

I think you mean checking the river? Unfortunately I don't think the river play tells us much about his range, given that he can obv check-raise a ton of his straight value hands, and he also doesn't turn a hand like KK into a bluff on the river, so he would check overpairs to try for showdown.

Also, I'm not trying to invalidate your analysis at all, cause I think what you're saying is spot on mostly, but I feel like we can go a little deeper than "these hands beat us, he likely doesn't play all of them, but we don't know which." I know that we can't definitively narrow his range, but so far you haven't (I don't think) actually speculated about what % of his range we beat here, which is the most important thing (obviously what part he calls with matters too, but the former is a start).

Plus you're implicitly saying he never shows up with 99-JJ here. I doubt he has 99 or TT given postflop action but wouldn't totally negate TT, and def not JJ.

I have a feeling you and I might end up agreeing to disagree here, and as was said, it's obv close, but I kind of want to know more specifics of your thoughts.
 
Matt Vaughan

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Also, saying you don't care about what his 3bet% is is just downright silly. I take all info I can get, especially in a marginal spot like this.
 
dsvw56

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Has 10nl really changed that much that this isnt an instant value bet on the river? Man, i have been gone a long time.
 
Matt Vaughan

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Yes - it has changed that much.
 
Deco

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Also, saying you don't care about what his 3bet% is is just downright silly. I take all info I can get, especially in a marginal spot like this.

That was my point . I dont believe this is at all close so I didn't bother asking.





I think you mean checking the river?

No I mean calling the river. In the unlikely event villain bets his overpairs in the turn and calls our raise we also need him to call our river bet.



Also, I'm not trying to invalidate your analysis at all, cause I think what you're saying is spot on mostly, but I feel like we can go a little deeper than "these hands beat us, he likely doesn't play all of them, but we don't know which." I know that we can't definitively narrow his range, but so far you haven't (I don't think) actually speculated about what % of his range we beat here, which is the most important thing (obviously what part he calls with matters too, but the former is a start).

Plus you're implicitly saying he never shows up with 99-JJ here. I doubt he has 99 or TT given postflop action but wouldn't totally negate TT, and def not JJ.

I have a feeling you and I might end up agreeing to disagree here, and as was said, it's obv close, but I kind of want to know more specifics of your thoughts

I think the key point we're disagreeing on is whether regs are bad enough to get to showdown with overpairs. I don't know 10nl regs but at 200nl I would rule them out completely. Estimating whether we lose to 5, 7 or 1000 combos post negation doesn't mean much when I find it hard to even acknowledge overpairs exist at all here :p
 
Deco

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Not to mention estimating villains 3bet range here without a 3bet stat is impossible.
 
youregoodmate

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I think the key point we're disagreeing on is whether regs are bad enough to get to showdown with overpairs. I don't know 10nl regs but at 200nl I would rule them out completely. Estimating whether we lose to 5, 7 or 1000 combos post negation doesn't mean much when I find it hard to even acknowledge overpairs exist at all here :p

Yeah this is what I said. I play 10nl quite a lot and although the decent regs will, a lot wont be able to fold the overpair (especially not to a small bluff sized bet).

Thats why I think its close and not too important EV wise, however I still like a smallish bet. Obv at 200nl its an easy check. Come down from the clouds one day and you'll see how bad the standard is on the ground here haha.
 
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