This is a discussion on $10 NLHE 6-max: TP with AQo in 3bet pot, Check/Call this flop? within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker HUD and Database Software
NL Holdem 0.1(BB)
CO ($12.78) [VPIP: 27.8% | PFR: 4.1% | AGG: 24.1%
My gut reaction is to cbet this flop because I have TP and it's a 3bet pot. However, I'm not sure if there are enough worse hands that can call me. I doubt villain will call any pairs smaller than Jx. This means I think he really only calls me with a range sort of like [QQ,AQs,QJs,JTs,Th9h,9h8h,8h7h,AQo,KQo], I don't even know if he'd have those suited connectors since I don't really have a good read on him yet. Hands like JJ/AK/AJ/KJ/QTs are likely raising this flop so I'd like to get feedback on whether or not a cbet is good here.
I think this is an easy c-bet. You already give a reasonable calling range for your opponent, and that are lot of hands. The only hands that lead you are JJ,QTs and two pairs. Since you are ahead your opponent most of the time I think you should bet both for value and protection. You really do not want your opponent to check behind with JTs or some 56 hearts.
I am not sure about the sizing here. I prefer a small c-bet like 30-40% to keep those weak draw in.If they raise big here, like 4x your bet, I think we can fold because our strong range. Hands like KJ, or even AK, desperately want to put money in the pot immediately because the run out can be worse later on. But if they raise small, I will usually call because the only hand that has the confidence to give opponent good odds to call is QT. We can call this one and see how things developed, may be induce a bluff later on.