$10 NLHE 6-max: TOP TWO facing a river jam ?

[razzor94]

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 19/17/2.8

poker stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Such a sick spot in a 350BB pot. Am I ever good here ?
141 hands on the guy. Seems pretty nitty. Fold to steal 89%. Fold to 3bet 80%(4/5)

Hero (SB): $17.55 (175.5 bb)
BB: $14.86 (148.6 bb)
UTG: $37.28 (372.8 bb)
MP: $13.80 (138 bb)
CO: $4.07 (40.7 bb)
BTN: $10 (100 bb)



Preflop: Hero is SB with A

K

UTG raises to $0.25, 3 folds, Hero raises to $1, BB folds, UTG calls $0.75

Flop: ($2.10) Q

3

K

(2 players)
Hero bets $0.66, UTG calls $0.66

Turn: ($3.42) A

(2 players)
Hero bets $2.18, UTG calls $2.18

River: ($7.78) 6

(2 players)
Hero bets $4.70, UTG raises to $24, Hero ?

 

[puzzlefish]

What hands can we expect to take that line that do not have you beat? An airball missed flush draw? Lower two pairs? Looks like a set to me.

 

[PaxMundi]

Villains flatting range ip is something like 99+,AQs+,KQs,QJs,JTs,T9s,AKo possibly a little tighter.On the flop villain folds JJ-99 and continues with QQ,AQs+,KQs,QJs,JTs,T9s,AKn the turn villain folds QJs,T9s and continues with QQ,AQs+,KQs,JTs,AKn the river villain calls AQs+,KQs,AKo and possibly even QQ.So i only see villain shoving with JTs and sometimes QQ or maybe a slow played KK AA. Unless villain is on the spewy side their not shoving AK AQ KQ .And they dont really get to the river with any bluffs so villain either has showdown value or a very nutted hand.You might catch some weird bluff once in a blue moon but nowhere near often enough imo.

 

[sirrupetot]

U should fold river this check raise on this board looks like a straight and with his stats i don't think he is bluffing 2 often.

 

[xy23]

Along with what everyone has already said, it could be a missed flush , therefore jamming on the river would be sound. He may have floated the flop, caught the draw on the turn, called once again and jammed on river.

 

[crimsonshroud88]

This spot is not crucial to your win rate. A situation like this is not really likely to happen to justify a lot of time spent on analysis.
I hope you got your answer though.
But I'll just add that "Villains flatting range ip is something like 99+,AQs+,KQs,QJs,JTs,T9s,AKo" isn't really true, it might be way wider as we are 175 bb effective.

 

[PaxMundi]

This spot is not crucial to your win rate. A situation like this is not really likely to happen to justify a lot of time spent on analysis.
I hope you got your answer though.
But I'll just add that "Villains flatting range ip is something like 99+,AQs+,KQs,QJs,JTs,T9s,AKo" isn't really true, it might be way wider as we are 175 bb effective.

Ive accounted for that and given villain a wider than usual 50% defending range this deep as villain only opens utg with about an 11% range 55+,ATs+,KJs+,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,AJo+,KQo possibly upto around 13% so it cant be much wider. But the hands would be easy to catergorise so it doesn't really change the analysis. All pairs JJ and under apart from 33 fold the flop so do 98s 87 76s and AJs ATs either call or fold the river.

 

[mrgupta]

Easy fold, especially as deep as you are. There are no worse hands that play this way, you have the range advantage on that board and with your line: 3betting preflop and betting big on every street, it would be suicidal for him to bluff you. It's JTs or on occasion slowplayed KK or AA.

 

[redwards92]

check that turn brother

QTcc QJcc are great bluff combos but I just fold river. I mean unless we think he's doing this with AQ as well?

 

[maxi_j]

River raise looks strong. I wouldn't expect anything weaker than AK in 100BB effective stack.

 

[fundiver199]

I agree with the others, that this is a fold. You have all the sets and two pair in your range, and you have bet all three streets, so its not like, he would look at this situation and think "what a great spot to bluff". He would however think "what a great spot to get paid", if he hit a straight on the turn with his JTs.