This is a discussion on $10 NLHE 6-max: Too nitty here? within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; Besides 3-bet preflop, what would you do if your opponent raised the flop or the turn?
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As you already said I think you should 3 bet pre. I like the check back on the flop although betting I think is fine but in reality we are only worried about one turn card so I think in the long run you make more when you check there on the flop and make yourself look weak to your out of position opponent. Turn comes an obviously really bad card. When villain bets here I think we are behind and if you wanted to fold right there I am fine with it even though it is nitty but thats my style. River makes it less likely they have an ace but would JJ-88 turn their hand into a bluff there knowing we just called the turn bet? They might but I dont see it plus villains pre flop opening range has more Ax and Kx in it then it does pocket pairs. Folding the river in my opinion is the correct move and not too nitty.
Not 3-betting QQ is pretty conservative, but it is a battle between the first two players on the table, so I can get on board with an occational flat, especially if you have aggressive squeezers behind. If nothing else it gives you a hand, that can easily defend against a squeeze. I am also ok flatting against a nitty UTG, like a 15/11 or something, if you are using a HUD.
When he check to you, I would put out a small bet like 30% pot. I think, him checking indicate some kind of showdown value, and while checking back can look weak, I am not sure, how many turn bluffs it will really induce. If the guy wanted to bluff, would he not just have C-bet on this incredibly dry board?
That being said I would rather check back QQ than a hand like 99, since it needs less protection. There is also some risk he is checking a "trap" like AK, and getting check-raised would be absolutely awfull. So I guess, checking back is ok, especially if you think, something like that might be going on.
Obviously the one card, you did not want to see, and now I am definitely not happy to face a bet. If you are behind, you only have two outs, and you can certainly have some AX, that check back the flop, so you have better hands to defend with than this one. You also have bad removal not blocking his value but blocking some of his most likely bluffs like QJ or QT, which just picked up a gutshot.
Another ace makes it less likely, he has one, but on the other side any AX is essentially the nuts now, so AX is certainly always betting again, and there are still many combos of it in his range. So all in all I would also fold now, but I think, it would have been slightly better to fold on the turn.