$10 NLHE 6-max: Set: call turn on 2 tone board or raise?

fletchdad

fletchdad

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Villain 26/21 over 45 hands. I get the feeling he would have bet the flop w/ K or Q. I think he is just taking a stab, and is folding here to a raise??. Am I getting more value raising now or calling and trying to get another raise from the flop???

Poker Stars - $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem (6 players)
Party Poker Hand Converter Tool from CardsChat.com

SB: $11.23
BB: $8.86
UTG: $18.16
MP: $4.72
CO: $10.94
BTN Hero: $10

Pre-flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN and dealt :3h4: :3c4:
2 folds, CO raises to $0.30, Hero calls $0.30, SB calls $0.25, BB folds

Flop: ($1) :8h4: :qc4: :kd4: (3 players)
SB checks, CO checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($1) :8h4: :qc4: :kd4: :3d4: (3 players)
SB checks, CO bets $0.72, Hero ??,
 
WVHillbilly

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I'd raise now. If he has anything at all he might be willing to get it in or even bluff 3bet since a turn raise looks so FoS because the ONLY hands you're really repping are a set of 3s and draws.
 
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DEdwardsNJ

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Raise now, if he doesn't have squat yet there isn't much that can come on the river that's going to get him to put a bunch of money in unless he makes a str8 or backdoors a flush which would be a disaster and if he does have something good now, there are lots of river cards that could kill any action you're going to get from him.
 
flatcaller

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I think call works better in this spot becuase the hands he may have have such few outs, right now your scariest hand is TJ giving him 8 outs. If you think he is on draw then raise to protect. He could have 2 pair here so regardless prob not going anywhere so getting in on river is no different. But most likely these are his hand, pcoket pair, or paired the board. You call the turn you are opened to 2 out suck out if he hits a set(TT is safe bet for what he has), and if he has a pair you win no matter what happens. So u call turn river comes out X he bets again now u can call or get it all in. If he bets turn he will bet river prob and if he does not bet river u can. Raising turn gets him to fold his pair, u call looks like maybe u r on draw or weak pair, he will almost be forced to bet the river or submit and loose his turn bet(possible for him to submit but not likely if he is betting on turn).
 
WVHillbilly

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I think call works better in this spot becuase the hand he may have such few outs, right now you scariest hand is TJ giving him 8 outs. If you think he is on draw then raise to protect. He could have 2 pair here so regardless prob not going anywhere so getting in on river is no different. But most likely these are his hand, pcoket pair, or paired the board. You call the turn you are opened to 2 out suck out if he hits a set(TT is safe bet for what he has), and if he has a pair you win no matter what happens. So u call turn river comes out X he bets again now u get call or get it all in. If he bets turn he will bet river prob and if he does not bet river u can.
Name a hand that we beat that doesn't call a turn raise but bets the river?
 
NineLions

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Raise now. Most of his hands are check/folding most rivers if you flat the turn so you're not gaining often by just calling. The rest of his hands you might as well try building the pot now.
 
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Nobody advocating raising turn isntead of checking?
 
Leo 50

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I would raise now.

Let's find out if he's coming along for the ride or if he's just taking a stab at the pot.
If he's on the draw, make him pay for it.
If he has a pocket pair again I want him to pay for it.

:cool:
 
WVHillbilly

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Nobody advocating raising turn isntead of checking?
Everyone is advocating raising the turn. Not sure I understand what you're asking since we didn't check the turn though?
 
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BlueNowhere

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I thought hero was sb for some reason. Which meant that he was c/r instead of betting out from my view and nobody had commented on him checking turn. Complete fail at interpreting HH lol. Advice given makes sense now.
 
flatcaller

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Name a hand that we beat that doesn't call a turn raise but bets the river?

Flecthdad believes the player he is up against is taking a stab at the pot. Therefore calling in this spot with a set can induce a player to continue bluff the river because it is the only play he has in order to win pot. So flatting turn allows for opponent to continue bluff the river. If he checks river, Fletch then has option to value bet. A raise on the turn works if you are putting your opponent on a hand or draw but if you think he is stabbing at a pot a set is def good so you need to pretend you are on draw to induce bet on river. Flatting turn allows max value of hand rather than bet, raise, fold.
 
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Nathan Williams

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I always raise here. Can't win a big pot by calling!
 
WVHillbilly

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Flecthdad believes the player he is up against is taking a stab at the pot. Therefore calling in this spot with a set can induce a player to continue bluff the river because it is the only play he has in order to win pot. So flatting turn allows for opponent to continue bluff the river. If he checks river, Fletch then has option to value bet. A raise on the turn works if you are putting your opponent on a hand or draw but if you think he is stabbing at a pot a set is def good so you need to pretend you are on draw to induce bet on river. Flatting turn allows max value of hand rather than bet, raise, fold.
No he doesn't. To value bet 2 things must be true,
1) We have to have the best hand (almost always true)
2) We have to think our opponent will call with worse (almost never true if he checks the river)

I mean don't get me wrong if you take that line you have to bet the river but you're almost never getting called.

Also the last line of your post assumes our opponent will fold to the raise when their are clearly several hands in his range that he could flat a turn raise with (Qx,SDs,FDs) and even a few that he'll shove over with since our turn raise reps such a narrow value range.
 
WVHillbilly

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What do you think about betting the flop since the PFR has given up his initiative?
 
flatcaller

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No he doesn't. To value bet 2 things must be true,
1) We have to have the best hand (almost always true)
2) We have to think our opponent will call with worse (almost never true if he checks the river)

I mean don't get me wrong if you take that line you have to bet the river but you're almost never getting called.

Also the last line of your post assumes our opponent will fold to the raise when their are clearly several hands in his range that he could flat a turn raise with (Qx,SDs,FDs) and even a few that he'll shove over with since our turn raise reps such a narrow value range.

So you are saying a set of 3 does not qualify for value betting? If Fletch calls turn then gets river check to him what does flecth do here? shove? no he value bets because the guy clearly is submitting his hand. Fletches opponent is implied to have a weak hand so value bettting river if check to flecth works.

Yeah he can flat turn but once again Fletch clearly states he thinks this guy is taking a stab at a pot, he also say he thinks this guy is folding any raise. If you think he will fold and raise and you think he is stabbing at pot why raise? isnt that enough info to say your set is dominant, lets get more money out of this guy and give him option to bluff river
 
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Sori

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I think it depends how confident you are on your read that he is just "taking a stab at the pot" and that he would fold to a raise. I can see advantages to both flatting and raising. If he is someone who often seem to take a stab at a pot when nobody takes the initiative on the flop, I may just flat and let him continue to bluff. All depends on if you this he is continuing his bluff on the river, or just giving up once you call the turn. If he does in fact have nothing, you probably won't be getting a call on your turn raise anyway.
 
WVHillbilly

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So you are saying a set of 3 does not qualify for value betting?
Reread my post. I am saying that to have a value bet 2 conditions need to be true and in this case only 1 of the 2 is.
 
flatcaller

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Reread my post. I am saying that to have a value bet 2 conditions need to be true and in this case only 1 of the 2 is.

So if the guy check to fletch on the river what do you do? shove? i don't get how a value bet would not work on river. maybe if you feel the guy will re raise bluff you with air if you make large bet... Also you can value bet bluff, in that case you don't need 1 or 2 of the value bet must have list (obv value bet bluff does not apply to this hand )
 
WVHillbilly

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What is a value bet bluff? There are bluffs (when you don't think you have the best hand AND you think you opponent will fold enough of his range to make it profitable) and there are value bets (when you think you have the best hand AND you think your opponent will call with worse).

Anyway if you do flat the turn (again big mistake) you'd obviously bet some small amount on the river but it doesn't qualify as a value bet because you really never expect to be called.
 
flatcaller

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What is a value bet bluff? There are bluffs (when you don't think you have the best hand AND you think you opponent will fold enough of his range to make it profitable) and there are value bets (when you think you have the best hand AND you think your opponent will call with worse).

Anyway if you do flat the turn (again big mistake) you'd obviously bet some small amount on the river but it doesn't qualify as a value bet because you really never expect to be called.

Value bet bluff is an advanced play used to pretend like you have a monster hand. Value betting works as a tell, you value bet the river a few times each time you show the nuts, you value bet a third time this time you hold a missed draw. Opponent fold figuring you must have nuts again. Value bet Bluff.

First of all you are trying to get player to bluff river by flatting turn. If player checks you then have option to value bet or make pot size bet whatever you think will get player to call. Value bet prob works best
 
WVHillbilly

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Don't really think you know what the definition of a value bet is (despite me typing it at least twice in this thread). To value bet has absolutely nothing to do with the size of the bet. Min bet or shove and everything in between can all be a value bet.

As for a value bet bluff, well you just made that term up.
 
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