Hello there
Hello Haze of Spades! Thanks a lot for sharing your hand with the Cardschat community.
You said:
Villain CO: Opens 3x
BTN: folds,
SB: folds,
Hero BB: 3bets to 10x
Villain CO calls for a heads-up flop:
Flop: AcJc9x
Hero BB C-bet 1/2 Pot. Villain Co Calls.
Now I have a question for you, which I believe could improve both of us: why did you elect to C-Bet 1/2 Pot out of position, versus a Regular in a medium connected Flop?
Is this a bet for value and protection, or it is a bet for
bluff? When you bet 1/2 Pot in a 3bet Pot OOP, do you expect more calls and raises (Value) or more calls and folds (Bluff)?
Yes, some may argue that the J connects with the 9 and the Ace connects with the Jack and it is a tough spot, indeed.
However, would Hero be betting 1/2 pot Out Of Position with his entire range? For instance if you catch a gutter would you bet 1/2 pot in a 3bet pot? and the same goes for if you hit a flush draw or if you hit nothing. Let us imagine your Ace didn't hit the board would you still be betting 1/2 Pot?
I believe that versus a Regular/TAG this is a kind of a big bet. And when we use to bet strong in the Flop we are saying to our opponent: "I am going to put you All-in either in the Turn or in the River".
When the Pot Geometry goes so strong like that just in the Flop it would be hard to Fold many Rivers with your Top Pair if the aggression continues in the Turn, and also the force and intensity of the bets. Remember that you have no reliable information about this Villain as you told in the beginning of your post, but you consider him/her a regular because you didn't see it doing anything odd.
Then Villain calls in position, but I believe he thought you had Sets or Better (If possible because you did not told which card hit the Turn). When this guy calls he might have a Jack from time to time that he decided to open from the CO, but a weaker Jack, since you have the removal of AJ and KJ combos. But he could have QJo or QJs that decided to call your 3bet In Position because these Broadways tend to flop so good. But he/she also can have some combos of J9, QT, Q9, Q8, J8, that could be calling this huge C-bet Flop.
Villain CO also has a ton of Club Flush Draws when he calls you since you are not blocking any Club in his range.
And then the Turn comes a low card (under 9, I guess) and you make a Huge Double Barrel for protection, betting 30 BB in a Pot of 40 BB, which I believe is perfectly fine, except for the fact that the Villain CO seems a Regular, and this could be very tricky and dangerous if he decides to put up a shove upon your Double Barrel Turn, it would be a very hard time for you.
One point that I forgot was to analyse your 3bet sizing: You made a very small 3bet sizing Out of Position, I dare to say, something like 3.3x, giving good odds for our friend in the Co to call with combos as JT, J9, J8, QT, Q9, Q8, etc. I like to say that I really don't like giving rope to my adversaries to hang me, which means, I really don't like giving nice odds to my opponents, specially when I am out of position because the lower my 3bet size is, higher will be the calling range and also the 4bet range since the odds are amazing.
So, whether I like it or not, I am 3betting 4x OOP versus Regulars IP, so they don't have amazing odds. Sometimes when you make a Small 3bet seems that you have a Strong Portion of your Range and does not intend the Villain to Fold. Maybe that's what the Villain thought, but this is one thing we would never know.
I believe, with my low experience, that you lost a bit of value here. Why is the question:
A) When you Bet strong and Villain Folds you didn't get the Maximum Value of your hand
B) When you Bet strong and Villain Calls or worst, Raises you (at the micros, mostly) you know there is just a small percentage change that you could be ahead.
So, what is the point of overprotection in the Flop and in the Turn? In the Flop, I could barely agree with the Strong 1/2 Pot bet, but in the Turn, I believe Villain would have with his Straight Draws and Flush Draws, at the best case scenario 25%
equity given board configuration until the Turn, as you explained for us.
How Could Villain be Calling a 3/4 Pot Bet compromising his Stack in the River with only 20-25% Equity?
Again, would you bet 1/2 pot in a 3bet Pot in a semi-wet connected Flop if you completely miss it? Let me know what do you guys think, because this is simply my opinion, not the truth of the universe. But Haze of Spades asked the community what do we think about it, and I do enjoy to be candid in professional situations like that.
I read the comments of the general population but I confess I don't like to play exploitative game versus Regulars, specially unknown ones: I tend to go straight for GTO, because the variance costs us a lot and we gain so little versus Regs(1bb/100?) that I don't see why to be fancy. Now versus a Whale or a FISH I would advocate that you should bet even more and charge real hard its draws.
Regards;
Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa