Got top pair good kicker from flop to turn. River paired to the board and villain jams? What possible holding could villain have?

888Poker Snap, Hold'em No Limit - $0.05/$0.10 - 5 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG (Hero): $8.99 (90 bb)
CO: $7.29 (73 bb)
BU: $17.77 (178 bb)
SB: $15.10 (151 bb)
BB: $19.78 (198 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15) Hero is UTG with Q♦ K♥
Hero raises to $0.20, CO calls $0.20, 3 players fold

Flop: ($0.55) 3♦ Q♠ 9♥ (2 players)
Hero bets $0.27, CO calls $0.27

Turn: ($1.09) T♥ (2 players)
Hero bets $0.35, CO raises to $0.70, Hero calls $0.35

River: ($2.49) 9♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $6.12 (all-in), UTG (Hero) folds

Total pot: $2.49 (Rake: $0.12)
CO wins $2.37

Without any reads, I think that villain could have KJ( 12x combos) mayby some J8s if he play more looose (4x combos) 99 (1 combo) 33 (3 combos) mayby TT if he decided flat pre (3 combos). I don't uderstand your bet sizing on turn, he doesn't fold anything, and as value bet is too thin on so wet board.

Thanks for posting so many hands!

The min raise UTG just hurts my brain! Argh! I think it's ok from the BTN, but even then you are asking your opponents to call wide.

.22 is a good size... I do .25 from UTG and HJ and .22 from BTN.

But enough on that.

Flop: If we acknowledge that CO can call wide, then 1/2 sizing is OK for a Cbet OOP. You very likely have the best hand.

There is an argument for making it 3/4 pot here since I don't think V's range is elastic. Plenty of drawing hands that can call.

Turn:
The T might be the worst card in the deck for you. After the flop bet, let's look at V's (likely) continuing range:

Queen pairs:
AQ (8 combos-reasonable that he didn't 3bet you) KQs (6c) QJs (2) QTs (only 1 c left)
You chop with 6, beat 2, lose to 9
Other Value:
JJ (6c), TT (3c), 99 (3c), 33 (3c)
You beat 6, lose to 9
Draws + Other floats:
JTs (3c), 9Ts (3c),

KJs is in there I suppose, but if that's the case, size up to 3/4 for sure on the flop!
KJs- 3c
You still beat 3c, lose to possibly 6.


So it's looking bad. As Rajten said before, a bet is a little too thin for value, as there are only 2c of worse queens 6 of JJ to call you.

Also, such a small bet is begging to be raised and JT can do that pretty exploitatively, also QJ.

You can't exactly fold for that reason. I think this becomes a check call spot.

Check out the micro grinders manual- it goes over those check-call, check-fold, and bet-fold spots pretty well. One easy way to identify this in game is by thinking about what worse hands can call- it's actually hard to do on this board! And if V is aggressive/loose, then his betting range will actually be wider than his calling range. So you can call a reasonable bet (you also have outs to improve) and reevaluate on the river.

Raise more like 3x from UTG.

Villain can have all kinds of hands that beat 1 pair there (flopped sets, now boats, straights).

I think your fold is good.

For me it’s all played fine with the exception of the turn bet size. By betting less on the next street you’re showing your hand to be weak and you don’t want to do this as it narrows you down to pair type hands and allows villain to take the betting lead. The board also become a tonne heavier for any draws which are going to call so I think bet 65%-75% on the turn here and reevaluate the river would of been better

Originally Posted by Dkerridge14

For me it’s all played fine with the exception of the turn bet size. By betting less on the next street you’re showing your hand to be weak and you don’t want to do this as it narrows you down to pair type hands and allows villain to take the betting lead. The board also become a tonne heavier for any draws which are going to call so I think bet 65%-75% on the turn here and reevaluate the river would of been better

I agree with this.

Overall, the play is fine. The fold seems fine. He can have some bluffs and only an all in would get you to fold the Q in opponent’s opinion.

i think your fold is ok on snap is hard with no hud to call

Originally Posted by gochillgo

Got top pair good kicker from flop to turn. River paired to the board and villain jams? What possible holding could villain have?

888Poker Snap, Hold'em No Limit - $0.05/$0.10 - 5 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG (Hero): $8.99 (90 bb)
CO: $7.29 (73 bb)
BU: $17.77 (178 bb)
SB: $15.10 (151 bb)
BB: $19.78 (198 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15) Hero is UTG with Q♦ K♥
Hero raises to $0.20, CO calls $0.20, 3 players fold

Flop: ($0.55) 3♦ Q♠ 9♥ (2 players)
Hero bets $0.27, CO calls $0.27

Turn: ($1.09) T♥ (2 players)
Hero bets $0.35, CO raises to $0.70, Hero calls $0.35

River: ($2.49) 9♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $6.12 (all-in), UTG (Hero) folds

Total pot: $2.49 (Rake: $0.12)
CO wins $2.37

We can never say for sure what Villan had/has, because NLHE Poker is a game of incomplete information.
To begin with, we need sample of hands played and a HUD Tracker.
If the poker room doesn't allow HUD, or it is a live game, we must trust on our instincts and take as much notes as possible (have you ever saw Phil Ivey playing live poker with a notebook and a pen in his lap?).

The Preflop

The table is short and our range is a little bit wider, so we are opening combos such as KT, KJ, KQ almost 100% of time. Considering this is modern poker, we should try to avoid min-raise (2 blinds, 2x), preflop, because we make the odds for players in position ridiculously good.

Now, your question: what Villan could have called with? Put yourself on Villain shoes for a moment and imagine that you are sitting in the CO and there is only the player in the BTN after you to act. The blinds are not our concern, because even if they Squeeze, we can think about entering a 3-way pot, having excellent odds for calling, plus position over anyone.

Now, if we are sitting in the CO now, we can call pretty wide and happily, at any stakes from 2 NLHE to 200 NLHE, with a buch of suited connectos, such as 76s, 87s, 98s, T9s, all the suited and some off-suited broadways and pocket pairs that we think that are not good enough to 3-bet versus UTG's opening ranges.
We can also be calling in this situation with very strong holdings, such as AQ, AJ, AT, 22-99, or 22-TT, 22-JJ, in the proportional ratio, of course, so when we think about what Villain could have, we must first apply the preflop logic, then we think about postflop gambling.

The postflop

The Flop

The problem of giving such excellent odds for a recreational player (CO/Villain) is that they can call with a bunch of crap and be ahead of us in unimaginable scenarios, for instance a fish could have called you with Q3s, because it loves to chases any flush, and almost certainly hands like Q9, but we are blocking those.
When we elect to c-bet 1/2 pot OOP and CO calls, we must first try to assume that it doesn't have any Qx on its range, because we are blocking from UTG with our cannon full of heavy queens AQ, KQ, QJ, QQ, etc.
So, we must assume that Villain could have called/float on the flop with 3rd pair (3x) or second pair (9x), plus all the Back Door Flushes and the SDs/Gutshots as well: we realize there is a ton of hands calling us OTF, for these reasons and others I would rather check the flop to see how Villain in position would react.

The Turn

This is a very tricky turn because it opens for our range a SD, we are blocking the second nut flush draw, we own TP2K, so our equity is pretty good at this point, and our hands should be c-betting this turn, but with a more reasonable sizing, because it doesn't has relation to ours 1/2 pot c-bet, now we are reducing the sizing, instead of increasing, ever since our equity got better and we own plenty of nutted hands on this scenario such as made straights, two pair, sets and nut flush draws: we are in a pretty good shape.

Considering recreational in position, it can now display a very similar range to ours, but a little more capped to hands like 33, Q9, QT, T9, etc, and should not be raising us right is with this specific part of their ranges, however Villain also commits a little bit of a blunder, let's consider:

Hero/UTG c-bets turn for 1/3 pot, and Villain/CO raises for 1/2 pot, this is a very paramount information: the pot was already $ 1.44 and CO/Villain raises only for $ 0.70? What a good pricing? And I keep wondering when and how recreational players learned to bluff, or better saying floating OTF to raise OTT with a buch of draws, yes it is possible, but not much likeable, since we are blocking part of Villain's bluffing range.
With this pricing we cannot be folding still OTT but if the guy insists on some types of rivers we are forced to go away and muck our KQ for good.

By c-betting too much out of position, with a great part of our range, we start to enter into the "leveling wars", which means, we don't know anymore what Villain really has, and sometimes Villain has a hand like QJ and goes all-in OTR. Why? Because we allow it to make the pot grow out of proportion with a player which has non-sense at all about sizing, position, anything, so how do we intend to be profitable if we try to bluff passive players when they can never be bluffed?

Another option was to push right OTT when Villain raises, because our hands need protection such as 99, TT, QQ, AQ, KQ, plus we are drawing to the straight and blocking the flush.

Pot control is a very, very useful tool to use and abuse versus very passive players, because they expect too much that we are bluffing and sometimes we aren't, but they think we are bluffing and then they go all, letting us wondering what is going on, and this is a horrible feeling.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa

Originally Posted by teh_colonel_saigon

Thanks for posting so many hands!

The min raise UTG just hurts my brain! Argh! I think it's ok from the BTN, but even then you are asking your opponents to call wide.

.22 is a good size... I do .25 from UTG and HJ and .22 from BTN.

But enough on that.

Flop: If we acknowledge that CO can call wide, then 1/2 sizing is OK for a Cbet OOP. You very likely have the best hand.

There is an argument for making it 3/4 pot here since I don't think V's range is elastic. Plenty of drawing hands that can call.

Turn:
The T might be the worst card in the deck for you. After the flop bet, let's look at V's (likely) continuing range:

Queen pairs:
AQ (8 combos-reasonable that he didn't 3bet you) KQs (6c) QJs (2) QTs (only 1 c left)
You chop with 6, beat 2, lose to 9
Other Value:
JJ (6c), TT (3c), 99 (3c), 33 (3c)
You beat 6, lose to 9
Draws + Other floats:
JTs (3c), 9Ts (3c),

KJs is in there I suppose, but if that's the case, size up to 3/4 for sure on the flop!
KJs- 3c
You still beat 3c, lose to possibly 6.


So it's looking bad. As Rajten said before, a bet is a little too thin for value, as there are only 2c of worse queens 6 of JJ to call you.

Also, such a small bet is begging to be raised and JT can do that pretty exploitatively, also QJ.

You can't exactly fold for that reason. I think this becomes a check call spot.

Check out the micro grinders manual- it goes over those check-call, check-fold, and bet-fold spots pretty well. One easy way to identify this in game is by thinking about what worse hands can call- it's actually hard to do on this board! And if V is aggressive/loose, then his betting range will actually be wider than his calling range. So you can call a reasonable bet (you also have outs to improve) and reevaluate on the river.

Hello teh_colonel_saigon,

Thanks for the in-depth analysis (especially on Turn; I think it's very deep for my brain, it also hurts haha). I guess it says if there are more combos that possibly beat you, then the chance that you are beat is also more likely.

Thanks,
Chill

Originally Posted by Aballinamion

We can never say for sure what Villan had/has, because NLHE Poker is a game of incomplete information.
To begin with, we need sample of hands played and a HUD Tracker.
If the poker room doesn't allow HUD, or it is a live game, we must trust on our instincts and take as much notes as possible (have you ever saw Phil Ivey playing live poker with a notebook and a pen in his lap?).

The Preflop

The table is short and our range is a little bit wider, so we are opening combos such as KT, KJ, KQ almost 100% of time. Considering this is modern poker, we should try to avoid min-raise (2 blinds, 2x), preflop, because we make the odds for players in position ridiculously good.

Now, your question: what Villan could have called with? Put yourself on Villain shoes for a moment and imagine that you are sitting in the CO and there is only the player in the BTN after you to act. The blinds are not our concern, because even if they Squeeze, we can think about entering a 3-way pot, having excellent odds for calling, plus position over anyone.

Now, if we are sitting in the CO now, we can call pretty wide and happily, at any stakes from 2 NLHE to 200 NLHE, with a buch of suited connectos, such as 76s, 87s, 98s, T9s, all the suited and some off-suited broadways and pocket pairs that we think that are not good enough to 3-bet versus UTG's opening ranges.
We can also be calling in this situation with very strong holdings, such as AQ, AJ, AT, 22-99, or 22-TT, 22-JJ, in the proportional ratio, of course, so when we think about what Villain could have, we must first apply the preflop logic, then we think about postflop gambling.

The postflop

The Flop

The problem of giving such excellent odds for a recreational player (CO/Villain) is that they can call with a bunch of crap and be ahead of us in unimaginable scenarios, for instance a fish could have called you with Q3s, because it loves to chases any flush, and almost certainly hands like Q9, but we are blocking those.
When we elect to c-bet 1/2 pot OOP and CO calls, we must first try to assume that it doesn't have any Qx on its range, because we are blocking from UTG with our cannon full of heavy queens AQ, KQ, QJ, QQ, etc.
So, we must assume that Villain could have called/float on the flop with 3rd pair (3x) or second pair (9x), plus all the Back Door Flushes and the SDs/Gutshots as well: we realize there is a ton of hands calling us OTF, for these reasons and others I would rather check the flop to see how Villain in position would react.

The Turn

This is a very tricky turn because it opens for our range a SD, we are blocking the second nut flush draw, we own TP2K, so our equity is pretty good at this point, and our hands should be c-betting this turn, but with a more reasonable sizing, because it doesn't has relation to ours 1/2 pot c-bet, now we are reducing the sizing, instead of increasing, ever since our equity got better and we own plenty of nutted hands on this scenario such as made straights, two pair, sets and nut flush draws: we are in a pretty good shape.

Considering recreational in position, it can now display a very similar range to ours, but a little more capped to hands like 33, Q9, QT, T9, etc, and should not be raising us right is with this specific part of their ranges, however Villain also commits a little bit of a blunder, let's consider:

Hero/UTG c-bets turn for 1/3 pot, and Villain/CO raises for 1/2 pot, this is a very paramount information: the pot was already $ 1.44 and CO/Villain raises only for $ 0.70? What a good pricing? And I keep wondering when and how recreational players learned to bluff, or better saying floating OTF to raise OTT with a buch of draws, yes it is possible, but not much likeable, since we are blocking part of Villain's bluffing range.
With this pricing we cannot be folding still OTT but if the guy insists on some types of rivers we are forced to go away and muck our KQ for good.

By c-betting too much out of position, with a great part of our range, we start to enter into the "leveling wars", which means, we don't know anymore what Villain really has, and sometimes Villain has a hand like QJ and goes all-in OTR. Why? Because we allow it to make the pot grow out of proportion with a player which has non-sense at all about sizing, position, anything, so how do we intend to be profitable if we try to bluff passive players when they can never be bluffed?

Another option was to push right OTT when Villain raises, because our hands need protection such as 99, TT, QQ, AQ, KQ, plus we are drawing to the straight and blocking the flush.

Pot control is a very, very useful tool to use and abuse versus very passive players, because they expect too much that we are bluffing and sometimes we aren't, but they think we are bluffing and then they go all, letting us wondering what is going on, and this is a horrible feeling.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa

Hi Carlos,

Thanks for the many wonderful ideas inside your message. I have to read and re-read to make some of it stick

regards,
Chill

Originally Posted by gochillgo

Got top pair good kicker from flop to turn. River paired to the board and villain jams? What possible holding could villain have?

888Poker Snap, Hold'em No Limit - $0.05/$0.10 - 5 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG (Hero): $8.99 (90 bb)
CO: $7.29 (73 bb)
BU: $17.77 (178 bb)
SB: $15.10 (151 bb)
BB: $19.78 (198 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15) Hero is UTG with Q♦ K♥
Hero raises to $0.20, CO calls $0.20, 3 players fold

Flop: ($0.55) 3♦ Q♠ 9♥ (2 players)
Hero bets $0.27, CO calls $0.27

Turn: ($1.09) T♥ (2 players)
Hero bets $0.35, CO raises to $0.70, Hero calls $0.35

River: ($2.49) 9♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $6.12 (all-in), UTG (Hero) folds

Total pot: $2.49 (Rake: $0.12)
CO wins $2.37

Just a guess, but with low stakes people chase a little more, because the loss of 27 cents to see the turn isn't going to break the bankroll.

I have CO on KJ or J8 there by the way they bet, based on just the hand itself. Was he new to the table, or were you able to get a read on his style? If he was an agressive player he could of donk bluffed knowing you are playing conservative.

If he had AQ, two pair or trips they would of raised more on the turn... that way they can get a feel if you caught a straight or it gets rid of you on a flush draw. That is why I feel they waited till the river to push