Originally Posted by gochillgo
Worried that villain may have a king, so folded on the turn. How do I apply villain range analysis here? I have no idea....Thanks!
888Poker Snap, Hold'em No Limit - $0.05/$0.10 - 6 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat
UTG (Hero): $23.82 (238 bb)
MP: $12.53 (125 bb)
CO: $9.51 (95 bb)
BU: $10.00 (100 bb)
SB: $5.10 (51 bb)
BB: $10.10 (101 bb)
Pre-Flop: ($0.15) Hero is UTG with A ♣ A ♦
Hero raises to $0.20, 1 fold, CO calls $0.20, 3 players fold
Flop: ($0.55) 6 ♦ K ♥ K ♣ (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $0.55, Hero calls $0.55
Turn: ($1.65) J ♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $1.65, UTG (Hero) folds
Total pot: $1.65 (Rake: $0.08)
CO wins $1.57
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The idea is very simple and easy to comprehend: players at these lower limits aren't bluffing enough so that we can be convinced enough to be leveling against them and putting all the chips in for any reason that isn't rational/logical or mathematical.
Consider that you made a mini-raise (2 blinds/2x) which isn't a good price for you but a very good price for the recreational player who was sitting In Position in relation to you.
I like our check OTF because the board is very dry and many regulars instictly answer to a 1/3 pot c-bet flop automatically with a check-raise. What happens here is very similar, we check and Villain/CO/Recreational elects to bet 100% pot in a very dry configuration, so we must assume very secure that either it has called with 66 or it has a Kx, because we don't believe hands like TT, QQ, would be calling preflop here (rare, not impossible), that Qx, Ax wouldn't be bluffing, plus the fact that Villain hasn't a lot of bluffs in this particular flop configuration.
Without any information about Villain I would be folding this AA when Villain comes double barreling 100% pot OTT again, because now I am almost 100% sure that it hasn't any bluffs on its range but some Kx that is trying to extract as soon as possible from UTG's strongs ranges.
We should be alarmed because we have range advantage, we have much more AK, KQ, AA, KK, etc than Villain (in the long run), so, it is a pretty fair and wise decision to call OTF to fold to a lot of turn non-sense bets like this, we are going to have millions of opportunities to make AA, KK, QQ, etc profitable hands and extract the maximum of them, but we must know when to fold them and this is a good example.
Regards;
Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa
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Respect and gl always!
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