$10 NLHE 6-max: Monster Flop But River Pairs Board

blueskies

blueskies

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I open to 30c from CO with AKos. BTN min raises me. I call. The reason I just call is because this player is a passive female player. Based on my read there's a very high chance she has a premium starting hand.

Flop comes QJT rainbow. I check. She raises under half pot. I raise to 3x her bet. She just calls.

Turn's the 3d, which brings on a flush draw. I pot it. She calls.

The river comes the Td, which doesn't make me happy at all. I am not too worried about the flush but she could very well have flopped a set with JJ or QQ in which case I lose to a FH. I don't think she has TT because she would likely flat call preflop. But then I was like maybe she's got KK or AA. So I bet half pot. She min raises me and I smack my forehead and call.

Why did I go against my gut. Goddam.

QQ.
 
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Sidetracked

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A very unfortunate hand for you.

In a situation like that, with your (very accurate) reads, I think checking the river and calling a reasonable bet is preferable to betting and getting raised.
 
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Redman1902

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Even if she is a passive player, why wouldn't you still 4-b AKo? If she is passive, she will neither bluff shove nor shove with a pair worse than KK+. So you have a lot of information preflop if your read is correct and can play accordingly.
 
blueskies

blueskies

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Even if she is a passive player, why wouldn't you still 4-b AKo? If she is passive, she will neither bluff shove nor shove with a pair worse than KK+. So you have a lot of information preflop if your read is correct and can play accordingly.

If I 4bet and she calls. Flop's a complete miss. What do you do when she's not gonna fold? Just check fold? Check call and hope she slows down?

Why unnecessarily inflate the pot out of position with a drawing hand against an extremely likely premium hand?
 
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fundiver199

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If the opponent is very straight forward, the river is probably a check-fold, even though it sucks. Trying to get value from specifically AA or KK seems a bit thin, especially since you block half the possible combos of those hands. And maybe a tight opponent dont even call you down with just an overpair.
 
pandafreeroll

pandafreeroll

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Why not be worried about the flush? I don't see how AJs-QJs would not be in their range...
 
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nutshove

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After she calls a pot-sized turn bet, I don't think you have much reason to be betting that river. I think you should be check-calling or check-folding in this spot. It's probably not that big of a mistake to be bet-folding this river as you probably won't be getting raised by worse, but it's going to be hard to win on this runout with a bet-call. You got off relatively easy by only being min-raised on the river.

A passive player would likely not risk being raised again on the river with a min-raise with something like AA or KK. If they were committed to getting to showdown, you would have just been called on the river, or it would have been checked back if you had not bet.
 
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