$10 NLHE 6-max: Linecheck with top set

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vengol

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PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.05/$0.10 - 5 players

UTG: $10.84 (108 bb)
CO: $20.96 (210 bb)
BU: $9.61 (96 bb)
SB (Hero): $10.35 (104 bb)
BB: $10.55 (106 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15) Hero is SB with A A
2 players fold, BTN calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.50, BB calls $0.40, BTN calls $0.40

Flop: ($1.50) 8 A 9 (3 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $1.06, BU folds, Hero raises to $2.50, BB calls $1.44

Turn: ($6.50) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $3.35, Hero?

BB here is a reg with stats 22/18/3 over 565 hands. Villain seems to be looser than usual from the BB though, with a 30% VPIP and a 13% 3bet (perhaps a bit lower here given my 5BB iso). BTN is a 40/0 fish, so both villains reach the flop with a pretty wide range. We've flopped the nuts, but we block a lot of the hands that we'd want the villains to be calling a bet with. On the other hand, if either villain has a good flush draw, combo draw, or lower set, they'll usually bet and continue vs a raise (and BTN will certainly continue with straight draws, two pairs and occasionally some one pair hands too), so I make the check-raise for value.

The turn brings the 7h, which is probably the worst card possible. It completes most of villain's draws and probably kills our action when they have a hand like 88, 99 or 89s, so I don't think a bet here achieves anything. I think when the bet comes in on the turn, villain (almost) always has a flush, and so this should probably be a fold. We'd need to make another ~$2 on the river if we hit our boat to make a call profitable, and I don't see villain paying us off often enough.

So, do you think check-raising is the best line on the flop? And do you see any option but to check-fold the turn? Input appreciated.
 
WabiSabi

WabiSabi

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I don't mind the check raise but i would of made it a bit bigger and then id be shoving any turn if called.You cant really take a bet fold line on the turn as your never really being denied the odds with top set if they jam. And likewise with check calling if you check and villain jams your basically always getting the 30% equity you need to make the call .So you may as'well just put the chips in your self if your taking this line.As played you got to call the turn now as your getting a very good price to fill up and it's probably very close to just shoving the turn yourself as you likely cant fold most rivers.
 
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monstr999999

monstr999999

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A difficult situation ... considering the flop ...
I do not risk the AA card and immediately go all in ...
and then let God decide ... if he is with me ..)))
:lollypop:
 
Jooseme

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I think there is a good possibility that your opponent can have pair + combo draw draw on the turn. I understand you're taking his stats into consideration, but I can't see a scenario where folding top set with 1 card to go on that board would be profitable long term. At minimum I'm calling, but you can argue a jam as well to make sure you can maximize your value if he does have a pair + draw type of hand.
 
Alucard

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I'm jamming. We have a ton of equity & not drawing dead even if he has a flush or a straight. Very unlikely a straight as well. We cannot fold vs a shove on river on a brick IMO.Would likely raise a bit bigger on flop to cbet jam on turn. A bit scary since he donking into 2 players but getting it in anyway
 
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JustSoPro

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Gotta push more on that flop check-raise. Once he bet into you, you should ATLEAST 3-4x his bet if not shoving right there, he CAN'T fold a straight draw or flush draw to a min raise
 
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Gildog89

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I agree with raising bigger on the flop, though I'm not getting it in there. I am not trying to get draws or pairs to fold.

The turn is a tough spot. I like calling more than jamming because if another heart hits, you can release the hand. If the board pairs, you might still get value. I am never folding there though. I am also calling the river if a brick hits. I don't think you can fold top set there.
 
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Yoda_Priest_X_Napo

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You basically repping 2Pair plus with your check-raise and some flush draws-compo draws right? You need to go more polarized with your sizing on that draw heavy board you giving them great odds to continue, you need to capitalize on your folding equity and push out hands with good implied odds against you i even shove this flop right away with part of my range.On the turn we consider folding? that is out of the question even if you check your entire range on the turn the flushes are few and you gonna start folding a huge percentage of your hands almost everything if you include AA, not to mention that villain can bet worse for value like 88-99 . i would check raise way bigger on the flop and sometimes go all in, as played i would jam the turn myself rather than fold or call.
 
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vengol

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Okay, I think a bigger check-raise makes shoving the turn a more appealing option.

As played, folding doesn't seem to be very popular. So what sort of hands other than flushes are you putting villain on when they bet the turn? There aren't a lot of pair+draw hands out there - the big aces are going to 3bet pre often and the smaller ones and unimproved pocket pairs will usually fold the flop if they bet at all. I'm not sure the bet comes if villain has a lower set or two pair.
 
WabiSabi

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Okay, I think a bigger check-raise makes shoving the turn a more appealing option.

As played, folding doesn't seem to be very popular. So what sort of hands other than flushes are you putting villain on when they bet the turn? There aren't a lot of pair+draw hands out there - the big aces are going to 3bet pre often and the smaller ones and unimproved pocket pairs will usually fold the flop if they bet at all. I'm not sure the bet comes if villain has a lower set or two pair.

It doesn't really make a difference at this point in the hand.The line you took was to commit to the hand no matter what the turn was so we need to stick with it. Even if villain had shoved the turn your going to be getting the direct odds to call and fill up vs a flush or strait.Id feel much happier vs a shove from villain tbh because then i think villain has more hands like KT or 9T with a heart, this sizing feels more like a flush or strait so call and try to fill up.
 
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vengol

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It doesn't really make a difference at this point in the hand.The line you took was to commit to the hand no matter what the turn was so we need to stick with it. Even if villain had shoved the turn your going to be getting the direct odds to call and fill up vs a flush or strait.Id feel much happier vs a shove from villain tbh because then i think villain has more hands like KT or 9T with a heart, this sizing feels more like a flush or strait so call and try to fill up.

Sorry, perhaps I'm misunderstanding something here. On the turn, the effective stack is $7.35 and the pot is $6.50, so we need about 35% equity to call a shove. We only have 10 outs (at most) vs a flush or straight, so about 23% equity. Is this not correct?
 
WabiSabi

WabiSabi

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Sorry, perhaps I'm misunderstanding something here. On the turn, the effective stack is $7.35 and the pot is $6.50, so we need about 35% equity to call a shove. We only have 10 outs (at most) vs a flush or straight, so about 23% equity. Is this not correct?

Yep your math is correct vs specifically only flushes or a strait you don't quite have the equity with the current spr.That wont be the case though and we cant ever check fold the turn.
 
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