$10 NLHE 6-max: How to get out of vicious trap with Premiums?

[gochillgo]

Hi,

I usually get some pots with Premium hands, but the problem is I also get stacked and can't seem to let it go once in the hands. Please give some insights on how to avoid this cycle. Thanks.


pokerstars Zoom, Hold'em No Limit - $0.05/$0.10 ($0.01 ante) - 6 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: $11.00 (110 bb)
MP: $17.16 (172 bb)
CO: $10.53 (105 bb)
BU (Hero): $8.81 (88 bb)
SB: $9.91 (99 bb)
BB: $23.40 (234 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.21) Hero is BTN with Q♥ Q♠
2 players fold, CO raises to $0.30, Hero 3-bets to $1.11, 2 players fold, CO calls $0.81

Flop: ($2.43) 2♣ 9♣ T♦ (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $1.20, CO raises to $3, Hero calls $1.80

Turn: ($8.43) K♣ (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $4.69 (all-in), CO calls $4.69

River: ($17.81) A♥ (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $17.81 (Rake: $0.80)

Showdown:
BU (Hero) shows Q♥ Q♠ (a pair of Queens)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 84%, Flop: 56%, Turn: 0%, River: 0%)

CO shows T♣ Q♣ (a flush, King high)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 16%, Flop: 44%, Turn: 100%, River: 100%)

CO wins $17.01

 

[vinnie]

What range do you think the CO is check-raising on this flop in a 3-bet pot with an SPR of 3? With which parts of this range is he willing to get all-in on the flop? With which portions of this range would he fold if you shoved the flop?

Considering the range you defined in the first question, how does this Kc turn card change his equities? When you call, and the Kc comes on the turn, which hands call your turn shove that you can beat?

Edit: If you have any relevant stats from a tracker or hud, please include them. Also, don't include results.

 

[Aballinamion]

Hi,

I usually get some pots with Premium hands, but the problem is I also get stacked and can't seem to let it go once in the hands. Please give some insights on how to avoid this cycle. Thanks.


PokerStars Zoom, Hold'em No Limit - $0.05/$0.10 ($0.01 ante) - 6 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: $11.00 (110 bb)
MP: $17.16 (172 bb)
CO: $10.53 (105 bb)
BU (Hero): $8.81 (88 bb)
SB: $9.91 (99 bb)
BB: $23.40 (234 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.21) Hero is BTN with Q♥ Q♠
2 players fold, CO raises to $0.30, Hero 3-bets to $1.11, 2 players fold, CO calls $0.81

Flop: ($2.43) 2♣ 9♣ T♦ (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $1.20, CO raises to $3, Hero calls $1.80

Turn: ($8.43) K♣ (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $4.69 (all-in), CO calls $4.69

River: ($17.81) A♥ (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $17.81 (Rake: $0.80)

Showdown:
BU (Hero) shows Q♥ Q♠ (a pair of Queens)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 84%, Flop: 56%, Turn: 0%, River: 0%)

CO shows T♣ Q♣ (a flush, King high)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 16%, Flop: 44%, Turn: 100%, River: 100%)

CO wins $17.01

Because some players are telling us that we are never folding JJ+ and AQs+ postflop at the micros, we are going in anyway with these hands and this is what happens.
We should play JJ+ and AQs+ the same way we do play 72o from the SB: without any kind of passion, excitement, emotion involved, we are working for the best, and the best not always comes with the best hands, according to variance, is certain like the sunrise that we are going to lose quite a fair chunk of times with AA (at minimum 20% of times), so put in the calculator how does it reflects after we do play dozens, hundreds, thousands of hands, how big 20% can be (1 out of 5).
Our plan is the contrary: is to lose as few as possible for the times we are wrong, and earn as maximum chips as possible for the times we are right, thi way hands like JJ+ can be profitable.
Otherwise, we are playing hands, not our range.
It doesn't matter if you have a Quads if you are only getting paid for Straight Flushes.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa

 

[teh_colonel_saigon]

Hi,
...
PokerStars Zoom, Hold'em No Limit - $0.05/$0.10 ($0.01 ante) - 6 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: $11.00 (110 bb)
MP: $17.16 (172 bb)
CO: $10.53 (105 bb)
BU (Hero): $8.81 (88 bb)
SB: $9.91 (99 bb)
BB: $23.40 (234 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.21) Hero is BTN with Q♥ Q♠
2 players fold, CO raises to $0.30, Hero 3-bets to $1.11, 2 players fold, CO calls $0.81

Flop: ($2.43) 2♣ 9♣ T♦ (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $1.20, CO raises to $3, Hero calls $1.80

Turn: ($8.43) K♣ (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $4.69 (all-in), CO calls $4.69

River: ($17.81) A♥ (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $17.81 (Rake: $0.80)

OK- preflop I generally don't like your 3-bet size, but given that this player is calling with QTs oop I think it is correct!

For the flop, I think you can bet a little smaller. It is a wet flop and since CO is calling wide we are prone to XRs, which we can't fold to just yet. I think $1 is perfect, but this is a minor point.

As for the XR, we have to put CO on a range split between value (sets, 2 pair) and draws. V's Value: 99, TT, possibly 9T, possibly even 22 for this guy

V's Semi-bluffs: QJs, KJs, AQs, AJs, ATs, JTs, some of these for bd flushes, I imagine some of them are just for the straight/gutshot draws though.

With that in mind, the is the worst card in the deck. Now it is hard to find a hand that you beat.

When CO checks to you (we're assuming he's a fish here) there are two possibilities- CO is scared of this card, or CO was improved by this card and is slow playing. Either way it does not make sense to bet. I'd check behind here and reevaluate on the river.

Being dealt QQ+ isn't the huge godsend your mind tells you it is. Look up how much you make on average with these hands. You ain't winning stacks every hand! :flute:

 

[c0rnBr34d]

The check / raise on the flop should definitely get your attention. You should be very cautions of an Ace, K, club, or even an 8 on the turn. Since the turn is both a K and a club we should be checking behind here a ton without reads. When we shove we are getting called by a better hand at least 4 out of 5 times (if not more). We have position so let's use it. If we check back turn and get this river it will be much easier to fold to the river jam as now our third pair is beaten by straights, flushes, 2 pair, sets, and any Ax or Kx. Alternatively it's probably ok to 3 bet jam the flop since there are both straight and flush draws on a T high board that was also 3 bet pre. Flatting flop in position is also fine if you have a fold button and want to reduce variance. But if you're going to get it in regardless of the run out (and this was one of the worst possible run outs) then you may as well jam flop.

 

[vinnie]

But if you're going to get it in regardless of the run out (and this was one of the worst possible run outs) then you may as well jam flop.

I was trying to hint at this with my response. And, I think it would be an interesting exercise for OP to actually develop sensible ranges that are check-raising this flop. There are a few combinations of made hands (2 pair and sets), but there is also a amount of combo draws (pair+draw, open-ended straight with overs [QJ], straight and flush, gutshot + overs + flush, etc.). When I develop a sensible range of hands that would call preflop and checkraise flop, even throwing in a combo of AA for the really rare chance that villain called with AA or KK, we have about 46-54% equity against that range. The only time it gets bad is when villain is only check-raising sets or two pair.

Once villain check-raises to $3, there is $6.63 in the pot. If we jam here, we're probably getting called unless this was a complete spaz raise, but villain could make a mistake and fold. When we get called, we are risking $6.49 to win $11.32. If we always get called, we only need 36.4% to break even. I think we almost always have more than this against villain's range. We need even less if villain sometimes folds to the shove.

With this SPR and this board, I think bet/jamming the flop is a better play than bet/calling.

As played, Kc is the worst possible turn card. I'm all for checking behind the turn (and folding if the opponent had bet). When it checks through and the river is an Ace, I am checking back or folding to a bet on the river. Could 8h7h be outplaying us? Yeah, it's possible (but unlikely). I think we're good on the river less than 10% of the time, and depending on the exact ranges I enter I get 0-5% good.