$10 NLHE 6-max: How to think about this? Turned set gets XR

loafaBREAD

loafaBREAD

Rock Star
Joined
Aug 24, 2020
Total posts
179
Hey all...

Obviously this was a 'bad beat' as V had JJ (otherwise, why would I post it?). I would just like to know how you would go about thinking on the turn.

Table: people are leaving, so now we are 3 handed.
V: (193 hands) 30/22 AF: 2
3B: 13%
WTSD: 21
FFCB:86

Not sure what else is relevant. But this ofc is never a bluff.


Pre and flop I believe are fine.

Turn I was deciding between smaller and large and decided to go with large. He could xcall some hands with poor equity that might call again vs a small bet (AQ, AK on occasion), but I figured "if he's gonna call opp with poor equity, might as well have him call a large bet"

Upon getting XR, JJ was my first consideration. Then I figured some opponents occasionally overplay/slowplay AA like this, especially at 10nl. So I figure it can't be too bad to call.

I also considered that folding middle set here equates to folding 99% to this and just calling with the nuts (JJ, which at 10nl I flat)

My shove over the XR i don't think accoutn for much as if he did this with AA he's calling. ITH I didn't notice that it was a min-raise... I guess those always are nutted.

Really, I just want to know could I fold here? Or, perhaps a better way to put it... how should I think about this spot?
Like, what should be going through my mind?

Yatahay Network - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 3 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 101.2 BB
Hero (BTN): 102.5 BB
SB: 42.5 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T:heart: T:diamond:

Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, BB raises to 11.5 BB, Hero calls 8.5 BB

Flop: (23.5 BB, 2 players) 6:club: 2:diamond: J:spade:
BB checks, Hero bets 7.7 BB, BB calls 7.7 BB

Turn: (38.9 BB, 2 players) T:spade:
BB checks, Hero bets 29.1 BB, BB raises to 58.2 BB, Hero raises to 83.3 BB and is all-in, BB calls 23.8 BB and is all-in

River: (202.9 BB, 2 players) 4:club:

BB shows J:diamond: J:club: (Three of a Kind, Jacks)
(Pre 82%, Flop 99.9%, Turn 98%)
Hero shows T:heart: T:diamond: (Three of a Kind, Tens)
(Pre 18%, Flop 0.1%, Turn 2%)
BB wins 192.9 BB
 
C

c0rnBr34d

Visionary
Joined
May 6, 2019
Total posts
991
I'm not sure there's that much to think about here. V only has 24 BB left after his raise and we have the second nuts. 3 handed BTN steal 3B range will be much higher than the overall sample of 13% in general. That means V has over pairs, 66, KQs, KQo, JTcc, maybe even 22 and JTo. I see absolutely no reason not to get the last 24 BB into the pot here as we only lose to 3 combos and beat a ton of other value hands and technically KQ is a bluff unless it's KQss. I had a similar hand the other day where I flopped a set of Ts on JTx and KQo raised me. I 3 bet flop and jammed turn and got called. Of course he hit his straight but the point is ranges are too wide not to want to stack off with second set when there's no flush or straight, pretty much ever. I mean sure we could come up with some exception to the rule, but there has to be better uses of our time where more EV can be gained than contemplating when NOT to try to get all the money in trailing only 3 combos when V can be much wider.
 
S

Sidetracked

Legend
Joined
Jun 30, 2016
Total posts
1,294
Awards
2
The hand pretty much plays itself. It sucks being on the wrong end of a set over set, but you played the hand fine.
 
John A

John A

Poker Zion Coach
Joined
Apr 12, 2012
Total posts
6,401
Awards
3
There's really nothing to think about here. The hand pretty much plays itself. Are you folding a set on the turn after the min-raise? :) Of course you should barrel this turn with your range as well, so there's really nothing here that I can see.
 
loafaBREAD

loafaBREAD

Rock Star
Joined
Aug 24, 2020
Total posts
179
OK- thanks all for your input. Been on a downswing lately, so perhaps I've been a bit too critical of spots like this when my attention should be elsewhere.

that being said, I don't think V properly adjusts to being 3 handed (I certainly don't) so it's unlikely he has 66 here. KQ playing this way by a bad reg at 10nl would be surprising... but again, no way to fold it.
 
Top