€10 NLHE 6-max: hitting trips on river and facing a shove v stationesque reg on lowball board

Verdue167

Verdue167

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€10 NLHE 6-max: hitting trips on river and facing a shove v stationesque reg on lowball board

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 32/20/1.2

V is pretty decent reg though loose pre and has a 3/3 steal sbvbb. I call his double barrel top pair and gutshot. I lead on trips r, villain shoves. How would you play this river?


IPoker No-Limit Hold'em, €0.10 BB (5 handed)


Hero (BB) (€10.08)
UTG (€5.54)
MP (€11.34)
Button (€10.88)
SB (€7.90)


Preflop: Hero is BB with 8d, 7d
3 folds, SB raises €0.20, Hero calls €0.15


Flop: (€0.50) 4d, 8s, 5c (2 players)
SB bets €0.35, Hero calls €0.35


Turn: (€1.20) 3s (2 players)
SB bets €0.84, Hero calls €0.84


River: (€2.88) 8h (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets €2.01, SB raises €6.46 (All-In), Hero calls €4.45


Total pot: €15.80


Results:
SB had 5d, 5s (full house, fives over eights).
Hero had 8d, 7d (three of a kind, eights).
Outcome: SB won €14.75
 
G

Gabe16

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To start with I think this player accurately read your hand. I know it’s not too difficult to see strength once you call a double barrel but checking the river with the intention to c/r is fairly well played.

We break even at 29% + rake. This action is polarising and I doubt v has enough air in their range. So foldings best given the action. V rarely does this with overpairs. Which are now probably played as bluff catchers.

Pre I’m not folding either. I can go either way with a raise or call.

V’s flop/turn bets aren’t small and we could possibly fold to the turn one. Double barrels are polarising too, we lose a lot of air/unmade hands here. But having top pair callings ok as well given our equity and probable implied odds.

We have to value bet this river. We get value from 99+ and possibly 77 that’s 31 combos (this is in my head while shopping) and lose to 9 set combos (I think V bets all pairs on this flop so potentially turned 3’s) A8 4 combos, and K8s, J8s, T8s, 98s 1 combo each. We get value from more than we lose too overall. I’m not sure V raises 86s ,85s pre. If so they even each other out somewhat anyway. 1 of each.

Folding these almost too obvious but to tempting to fold spots will make a big difference to our bb/100.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Don't show the results. I play it the same, except fold the river. When a station makes a huge polarizing play, they usually have it. A 1.2 AF is pretty passive.
 
WhereDidMyEVGo

WhereDidMyEVGo

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I agree with bet/folding river.
 
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