This is a discussion on $10 NLHE 6-max: Good spot to bluff? within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; I'll cut it off at the river- if you think it's a river bluff, what sizing?
If I'm a spewtard let me know! Also, what
When opening from the sb, it's better to raise to 3 x, as you'll be out of position for the rest of the hand. You'll be giving the bb a slightly worse price to call.
As played, I don't think barrelling the river is bad. Your continued aggression on the turn is fine, as you picked up the flush draw (and the K is a good card for your range), so the river barrel completes the story.
You have a pair, so your hand has some showdown value. And if you bluff even with hands, that are good maybe 20% of the time, you need him to be way overfolding to show a profit. Already the turn bet is a little iffy in my opinion. You are not ahead when called, so its not for value, and he is probably not going to fold a J, so its not a good bluff either. I prefer to check-call turn, check and evaluate river. Ideally he let you get to a cheap showdown.
Yes, with all due respect, if you are trying to bluff a Villain like this 22/16/1,you are going too far with your metagame.
Second: your raise from the SB should not be so small, we like polarization from the SB and we raise the same sizing we use when we do open from UTG (I use 3x from the SB).
The fact is that from the SB we will never have the nuts, but we are going to have anything: we cannot simply try to represent this and that when we are raising from the SB, because this is our stealing range most of times.
The check will work better OTF most of times, because we don't expect many 9x on Villain ranges, the 3x we believe villain would be folding most of them, except maybe A3s, and K3s, and of course J3s, and BB will always pay with any Jx.
As bluffs, BB could be floating OTF with straight draws mostly, but there are just few of them.
This King is good for our range because allow us to continue 'bluffing', since now our equity is real much better. I also like the polarization, so we can put pressure on hands like A3, Jx, 9x, and Kx, and some players are going to fold those hands here, which is very sweet for us.
OTR we are blocking a couple of straights but we also don't believe Villain is going to fold the Jx, Kx, now. We do check and pray for BB to check behind and display some busted Ax: OTR there are many hands that are beating the hell out of us and giving how passive this Villain seems, it is better not to risk to bet OTR and get an all-in on our faces.