$10 NLHE 6-max: Float or fold 99?

[pickpokkit]

djs is pretty much right here. the question are we ahead? Chances are that we are ahead, so a lead out bet or a check raise is in order - if he stills wants to play then check and fold. :trytofly:

 

[bgomez89]

djs is pretty much right here. the question are we ahead? Chances are that we are ahead, so a lead out bet or a check raise is in order - if he stills wants to play then check and fold. :trytofly:

What makes you think we're ahead? What worse hands does villain call with if we check/raise the flop?

 

[dj11]

What makes you think we're ahead? What worse hands does villain call with if we check/raise the flop?

It is the dynamic of this hand;
2 important factors, the first is that it is a short handed table, and villains stats are unreliable and then it is button vs blind, that gives credence to the very real possibility that we are ahead. The button baggage I mention before is very real, it is almost mandatory that the button open an unopened hand, he is usually considered weak if he doesn't.

Villain here (button) will be playing a large range including a lot of hands that have us beat at this point. My point is that we can not let him have the free bet here. Villain may have the monster, we can't know for sure ever, but to offer him the hand by simply checking the flop is wrong.

We don't really need any math here, we are very likely good here most of the time. We need info, and we get none by checking.

Re-look at the hand, and ask yourself this;

If we check the flop, is there any way we are gonna call a bet?

-Slow play 9's with an ace on board? Really?
-Come along for value? Really?
-C/R ? Really?

As for the C/R We get the same info cheaper by betting out. Whether villain calls or raises.

 

[JOEBOB69]

3bet 60-70% of the time here pre.So given the line OP took i don't like check\fold,check\call,or donk betting,so given the pre flop action check\raise.Yes it is turning 99 into a bluff.Villains range has so many overs in it though that will fold out to a C\R with out a showdown.
Edit:I just don't see why or how your just set mining here with 99 vs the villain on the button.

 

[Stu_Ungar]

I think your mistake here is not c-betting the flop.

1 shot, if he doesn't have an A, then its yours, and if he calls, you are done ......but checking is wrong...

Your almost there. CR

If you think he cbets 100% of his range, then check let him bet and then raise.

If he cbets 100% of his range then its a value bet.

If he calls check the turn and look to snap call any river bet on missed draws.

He is aggressive, he likes to bet, he bets.. why do we have to fold?

Raise to $2 fold to a reraise.. you most likely have the best hand.

 

[Stu_Ungar]

.Yes it is turning 99 into a bluff.

No it isnt, its a clear value bet against draws that will also fold out dead money from the air portion of his range.

 

[Stu_Ungar]

As for the C/R We get the same info cheaper by betting out. Whether villain calls or raises.

The info comes if he raises.

The value comes if he calls

 

[Stu_Ungar]

I agree, not good to float OOP. Depending on villain's cbet and my image/table history, I might consider donk betting or even check raising, but not floating.

Floating OOP is fun. You can call yourself tom and dress up in cool shirts and a hat and play poker where you float. Its fun. Or just listen to that guy ^^ Sounds like he knows whats he;s doing

The problem with floating OOP against a guy like this is that you still need to bet the turn. When you check, he may decide to bluff because he thinks you are now on a draw and he can make you fold or something... he likes to bet he finds reasons to bet.

When you float you are looking to do it against people who wont bluff, this guy will bluff some of the time.

So you have to lead the turn, now he might pick up equity on the turn and you misinterperate that for him having a made hand. Then when you check the river he may out draw you as he plays a lot of BW cards or he might put you on a draw that missed for calling flop, leading turn and checking river and so find a reason to bet and you fold the best hand.

When you CR the flop it costs about the same as leading the turn but it is 200% more reliable as you remove his air.

Now on the turn you know you cant bet for value, but when you check he is most liklely to check through his draws so when they miss you can check call the river and not how he plays either draws or Ax to a CR on a drawy board.

If you dont think he cbets 100% on this board then fold.. if he only bets aces and draws then you are behind on the flop and should fold.

 

[watchtowel]

Yea Stu I have started raising flops more often with marginal hands against cbets. Seems to be much more effective than floating and betting the turn. It looks a lot stronger, as you said it costs the same and it gives you a good idea where your' at.

 

[Stu_Ungar]

Yea Stu I have started raising flops more often with marginal hands against cbets. Seems to be much more effective than floating and betting the turn. It looks a lot stronger, as you said it costs the same and it gives you a good idea where your' at.

yes just remember to do it for value and not as a bluff. We think, against this guy, 99 is the best hand.

 

[ariesj11]

I would of bet out after the flop to represent the ace myself, and probably folded if my opponent raised. The button could of had anything, and you would of got more information if you had bet on the flop.

 

[JOEBOB69]

No it isnt, its a clear value bet against draws that will also fold out dead money from the air portion of his range.

Still don't understand this.I only see a few draws that will call this check raise.All gut shot draws plus 67 will fold out.Most small flush draws will fold out.That leaves us with AQ,AK,A5,A8,AA,55,88,58,Ad2d+,10djd+, that will call or raise our CR.

 

[RVladimiro]

The only logic I see in Stu's idea is that we pick dead money if the villain didn't hit the ace and folds, which happens quite often. The question is: is it a profitable play?

 

[JOEBOB69]

Agree with the CR Stu said i just don't think it is for value.You should get folds out of AJ,A10 etc.I just think if you get called it's more prob to be in the range i stated in my above post.

 

[watchtowel]

If he cbets a lot, giving his aggression he probably does then raising his cbets would be as effective as cbetting normally is?

 

[Stu_Ungar]

Still don't understand this.I only see a few draws that will call this check raise.All gut shot draws plus 67 will fold out.Most small flush draws will fold out.That leaves us with AQ,AK,A5,A8,AA,55,88,58,Ad2d+,10djd+, that will call or raise our CR.

Loose players dont fold draws as much as you think especially when you play aggressively...

Folding out JQo is also good for us as it has 25% equity against us and we wont be barrelling 3 streets will we?.. so there is some more value.

 

[Stu_Ungar]

The only logic I see in Stu's idea is that we pick dead money if the villain didn't hit the ace and folds, which happens quite often. The question is: is it a profitable play?

Yes but Im not doing it to fold out QQ and JJ type hands, Im doing it to fold out KQ KJ QT type hands (which I am ahead of). Im not trying to bluff him. I have the best hand more than 50% and I want to get some money for that.