Hey all,

V has been super aggresive in weird ways... min 5betting, frequent check raises. But stats show he's pretty tight.

14/14 AF:9 3b :9 WWSF: 64 over 259 hands

We're 150bb eff. so I think the call pre is totally justified closing the action.

Haha, maybe not that interesting of a spot, but it's hard to think of a response for this play. Should I just label this guy an aggro nit and get on with my life?

If I were deeper stacked I'd call flop. ITH it's hard to see what else I'd call here with- I'd maybe sometimes have AK, KQs maybe KJs, so it broke my heart to fold this combo.

Yatahay Network - $0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players


BTN: 98.5 BB
SB: 317.9 BB
BB: 104.5 BB
UTG: 101.2 BB
MP: 145.1 BB
Hero (CO): 157.1 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q♦ A♦

UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, SB raises to 13.5 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 10.5 BB

Flop: (31 BB, 2 players) 3♦ 6♣ K♦
SB bets 36.8 BB, fold

SB wins 29.5 BB

This guy is probably playing raise or fold strategy preflop. Against your CO open his SB 3-bet range is wide. I would give him sth like: 77+,ATs+,A5s,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,AQo+,KQo (9.65%)
Here we need to look at his "Flop CBet 3Bet Pot" or "Flop CBet 3BetPot OOP" stats. But regular Cbet stat may give a general idea.
Let's assume he has 70% Cbet in this spot. His weird aggression on previous spots tell us that his overbet on flop does not mean much. Hence, his range on flop is sth like: 77+, AKs, KQs, AKo, KQo (6%) He also might have smaller flush draws. You block aces, you block ace king.
Against this opponent and his range you are flipping so folding here might be -EV.

UTG opened, I called, SB Squeezed, FYI.

But yes, I figured his range is strong, little implied odds here

If UTG RFI range is tight yet SB chose to squeeze, I think you can fold pre.
It looks like a nit stats and play very aggressively postflop with strong range.

Folding flop it is terrible if you decided to call preflop.

If we want to set up a special trap, I advocate limping while IP and then if SB correctly raises to 4.5x, we can 4-bet as a semibluff at 2.2 times SB's 3-bet. If this villain 5-bet comes back, we have a profitable fold to NL10. But I definitely think the standard play here is to 3-bet with AQs, then we bet small on the flop and we can possibly defend one more street with our flushdraw. As played, we still have an average 10% advantage over the series of medium pockets that villain (of NIT aspect) could maintain in its raise range. Our lowest equity drops as much as 25% when rank of villain only has sets.
Even if we bet donk 1/3 small OTF and the villain raises us to 5x we would be closer to defending our draw, because the villain with his overbet is denying us more equity compared to the assumption we illustrated. As played it is a correct fold, given the price we have.
Greetings.

Originally Posted by quant1986

If UTG RFI range is tight yet SB chose to squeeze, I think you can fold pre.
It looks like a nit stats and play very aggressively postflop with strong range.

Folding flop it is terrible if you decided to call preflop.

I agree we can fold pre when his PFR is only 14 even though he's blasting off post and coming in for 3 bets a lot. If his PFR is that snug and he's 3 betting into an UTG range with a call behind we should be facing a tight range.

Against a normal sized flop bet I'd agree we may be able to continue but I don't see how folding flop is terrible for this price. We have decent equity if we expected some check backs on the turn but we won't get to realize that equity seeing only one card, AND we are not exactly short stacked in this 3 bet pot. From the description V has shown no propensity of slowing down. Even in a best case scenario type situation where we have enough equity to call vs a hand like QQ, how will we realize our equity? If an Ace or a diamond hits we probably don't get paid. So we shovel money in paying off overbets and then V folds when we hit most of the time. Or worse yet we hit an Ace but V has AK, AA, or KK.

Depending on who UTG is I 3 bet pre. If I flatted because UTG was tight then I probably fold to the SB 3 bet. If I 3 bet and get cold 4 bet I also fold. If somehow we decide he is as wide as TT here and flat the 3 bet because he's 3 betting 9% then again, we missed the flop and the overbet puts us in a really bad spot. We will have a little more than a pot sized bet on the turn and if we hit we likely don't get paid and if we miss he can jam on us. We really should never have AK or KK+ here as played so V can apply max pressure even with his "bluffs" like QQ or TT.

Originally Posted by loafaBREAD

UTG opened, I called, SB Squeezed, FYI.

But yes, I figured his range is strong, little implied odds here

Oh sorry. Then I would definitely add JTo into his squeeze range. Since squeeze is such a powerful play I am definitely not decreasing his range
If you are not defending nut flush draw on the flop then this is to say you only defend top pair and sets in which case you might be overfolding in these spots.
Let's consider shoving instead of calling.
1. Villain folds roughly 4.6% of hands (in 6%) you earn +66.3BB
2. Villain will continue with roughly 1.4% hands (in 6%). Villain calls with KK+,AKs,AKo; you have 35% equity against these. EV=-(136.5)*0.65+166.5*0.35=-30.45BB
Overall EV of the push = (4.6*66.3-30.45*1.4)/6=+43.725BB
Even if he was folding half of his hands then Overall EV would be =+17.925BB
Pushing seems to be more EV play than folding.

Originally Posted by c0rnBr34d

Against a normal sized flop bet I'd agree we may be able to continue but I don't see how folding flop is terrible for this price. We have decent equity if we expected some check backs on the turn but we won't get to realize that equity seeing only one card, AND we are not exactly short stacked in this 3 bet pot. From the description V has shown no propensity of slowing down. Even in a best case scenario type situation where we have enough equity to call vs a hand like QQ, how will we realize our equity? If an Ace or a diamond hits we probably don't get paid. So we shovel money in paying off overbets and then V folds when we hit most of the time. Or worse yet we hit an Ace but V has AK, AA, or KK.

I also don't like calling on the flop. It is hard to realize equity afterwards. Instead shoving seems to be plus EV.

Originally Posted by c0rnBr34d

I agree we can fold pre when his PFR is only 14 even though he's blasting off post and coming in for 3 bets a lot. If his PFR is that snug and he's 3 betting into an UTG range with a call behind we should be facing a tight range.

Against a normal sized flop bet I'd agree we may be able to continue but I don't see how folding flop is terrible for this price. We have decent equity if we expected some check backs on the turn but we won't get to realize that equity seeing only one card, AND we are not exactly short stacked in this 3 bet pot. From the description V has shown no propensity of slowing down. Even in a best case scenario type situation where we have enough equity to call vs a hand like QQ, how will we realize our equity? If an Ace or a diamond hits we probably don't get paid. So we shovel money in paying off overbets and then V folds when we hit most of the time. Or worse yet we hit an Ace but V has AK, AA, or KK.

Depending on who UTG is I 3 bet pre. If I flatted because UTG was tight then I probably fold to the SB 3 bet. If I 3 bet and get cold 4 bet I also fold. If somehow we decide he is as wide as TT here and flat the 3 bet because he's 3 betting 9% then again, we missed the flop and the overbet puts us in a really bad spot. We will have a little more than a pot sized bet on the turn and if we hit we likely don't get paid and if we miss he can jam on us. We really should never have AK or KK+ here as played so V can apply max pressure even with his "bluffs" like QQ or TT.

AQdd is the probably the best hand with good equity in this spot aside from AJdd if hero does not have AK flatting range pre. You are right V could jam on turn with blank but does not mean calling flop is -EV, if V blast off whole range here. (TT+,AKo,AKs)

I plugged into solver and hero is correct to fold whole range (probably like AQs,AJs,KQs,KJs,TT,JJ) when 5% rake is considered against pot bet.

So I would changed my stance folding is not terrible

Originally Posted by quant1986

AQdd is the probably the best hand with good equity in this spot aside from AJdd if hero does not have AK flatting range pre. You are right V could jam on turn with blank but does not mean calling flop is -EV, if V blast off whole range here. (TT+,AKo,AKs)

I plugged into solver and hero is correct to fold whole range (probably like AQs,AJs,KQs,KJs,TT,JJ) when 5% rake is considered against pot bet.

So I would changed my stance folding is not terrible

I am curoious what does solver say about pushing?

Originally Posted by arenaci

I am curoious what does solver say about pushing?

Hero should have no flop raising range. There is no "nuts" in Hero range and V could just call off AK,and KK+ when facing a raise and fold others.

Don't need to risk all the money against a deep stack of a player that a NIT looking and that most likely he has us defeated from the flop. But is true that pushing is + EV. Of course it is a CORRECT decision to do so, but not an obligation. We are not committed to the pot. Perhaps in a tournament it is more relevant to push a full stack in a draw from the flop and being for behind of a tigh range due to the huge +EV, but in cash games the ratio of stack to pot is also important for not to risk so much money in a boat that not had nough money since the beginning.

Originally Posted by gustav197poker

Don't need to risk all the money against a deep stack of a player that a NIT looking and that most likely he has us defeated from the flop. But is true that pushing is + EV. Of course it is a CORRECT decision to do so, but not an obligation. We are not committed to the pot. Perhaps in a tournament it is more relevant to push a full stack in a draw from the flop and being for behind of a tigh range due to the huge +EV, but in cash games the ratio of stack to pot is also important for not to risk so much money in a boat that not had nough money since the beginning.

Maybe 100bb eff we can think about a shove v an overbet. Still not happy about it!

Thanks for the feedback. I remember UTG being pretty tight, so I didn't 3!. So folding pre may be more justified.

Originally Posted by loafaBREAD

Maybe 100bb eff we can think about a shove v an overbet. Still not happy about it!

Thanks for the feedback. I remember UTG being pretty tight, so I didn't 3!. So folding pre may be more justified.

Thanks for correcting me. I also agree to fold preflop against a tight UTG I thought the stats were of SB lol

Pre-flop is fine... flop is a call. Don't understand this fold at all.