$10 NLHE 6-max: +EV or not ?

[Aragveli81]

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 20/17/5

Board 9 10 2 5 rainbow
Pot 1.60 $Hero 66
Villain Range JJ-99,22,AQs-A9s,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,AQo-A9o,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,T9o,98o,87o

Action:Villain checked

Question : Is it profitable to bet here ?

 

[blix177]

I am going to say not profitable to bet. You can get to river for showdown in position. The majority of the hands you picked for the villain range will make it likely they will call you and after calling you, you still wouldn't know are they drawing or having a mid pair or better.

 

[fundiver199]

Its difficult to analyse a hand without the full history. What were the positions and stack sizes, what actions took place preflop and on the flop. This all matter to our decision making on the turn.

 

[Aragveli81]

I didn't need to know what he is holding it is just matter of probability since he has equal amount of drawing and made hand, small bet (0.90$) on river(except J,Q,K) makes profit automatically.

 

[Aragveli81]

Stacks : Full (10NL)
Full history: Hero CO - raise 0.30$
Villain SB - call
Villain - check
Hero - bet 0.40$
Villain - call
Pot 1.50$

 

[Aragveli81]

Its difficult to analyse a hand without the full history. What were the positions and stack sizes, what actions took place preflop and on the flop. This all matter to our decision making on the turn.

Stacks : Full (10NL)
Full history: Hero CO - raise 0.30$
Villain SB - call
Villain - check
Hero - bet 0.40$

 

[Aragveli81]

I am going to say not profitable to bet. You can get to river for showdown in position. The majority of the hands you picked for the villain range will make it likely they will call you and after calling you, you still wouldn't know are they drawing or having a mid pair or better.

I didn't need to know what he is holding it is just matter of probability since he has equal amount of drawing and made hand, small bet (0.90$) on river(except J,Q,K) makes profit automatically.

 

[fundiver199]

Stacks : Full (10NL)
Full history: Hero CO - raise 0.30$
Villain SB - call
Villain - check
Hero - bet 0.40$

Then check behind. Your hand is not strong enough to bet multible streets for value, and its to strong to turn into a bluff.

 

[PaxMundi]

Probably just check on a 9Tx board with 66 your not getting much of anything to fold to a cbet from the range you assign.And it's not really the type of board i want to run milti barrel bluffs with little chance to improve.

 

[Aragveli81]

Then check behind. Your hand is not strong enough to bet multible streets for value, and its to strong to turn into a bluff.

Instead 66 I have A6 what you suggest ?

 

[fundiver199]

Instead 66 I have A6 what you suggest ?

Check and give up. You want to bluff with hands, that have at least some potential to improve. A6 does not on that board.

 

[gustav197poker]

No, it is not. With that rank you are favorite below average. You also block only the lower wheels, which is bad for your range. This is probably a check-fold range on the turn.
Regards

 

[Aragveli81]

Check and give up. You want to bluff with hands, that have at least some potential to improve. A6 does not on that board.

you mean there is no opportunity in poker where you could find +EV line with poor bluff ? or given example is not much above ?

 

[Aragveli81]

No, it is not. With that rank you are favorite below average. You also block only the lower wheels, which is bad for your range. This is probably a check-fold range on the turn.
Regards

do I need to be favorite on every spot in poker ? where goes bluff?

 

[Aragveli81]

Probably just check on a 9Tx board with 66 your not getting much of anything to fold to a cbet from the range you assign.And it's not really the type of board i want to run milti barrel bluffs with little chance to improve.

the board is 91025 rainbow and villain checked to me

 

[gustav197poker]

I didn't need to know what he is holding it is just matter of probability since he has equal amount of drawing and made hand, small bet (0.90$) on river(except J,Q,K) makes profit automatically.

You asked if it is profitable to bet on the turn with 6-6. With the V range you offer you have little chance of achieving fold equity. Since V has a 60% chance of winning the hand. It is not profitable to bet on this turn.

 

[Aragveli81]

You asked if it is profitable to bet on the turn with 6-6. With the V range you offer you have little chance of achieving fold equity. Since V has a 60% chance of winning the hand. It is not profitable to bet on this turn.

My goal is not to make him fold on turn ,instead I think he never folds this range on given board and I wont to use his heavy 50% of draw range to make him check fold on the river with small bet.

 

[PaxMundi]

the board is 91025 rainbow and villain checked to me

The flop cbet.