$10 NLHE 6-max: Do i have fold equity here?

[freddydr87]

This hand is very interesting we had fight some hands before, he looked like one off thouse guis who plays short stack strategie(they tend to be very agresive) and his stacks shonws some agresivitie although in few hands.
He has VPIP 36 PFR 21 3bet 12 he is agro when see flops 45% win but doenst go to ofthen to showdonw 24% so he is bluffing and folding a lot on F and T.
https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/224KyB6KY

So with this hand you can ocationally call 3bets when you think vilain is 3betting to much with the intention off bluffing in a deasent runn out(iff you arent capable off bluffing with it just fold pre F) or you could 4bet also and bluff iff he calls but most off times will take it preF iff vilain is 3beting too much.
So when he bets pot F that is a polarized bet i spect some bluffes(that beats mine for sure)and some very strong hands that i dont spect him to fold. So why bluffing when you dont spect any value hand to fold? well iff i had Axs them i had some showdonw value,so i could call his bet and win to his bluffes or i could impruve to the nuts. But with this bluff i wonth beat anything other wise it impruves, so it is beater to play it agresive, he maigh fold some semi bluffes like TJh maibe AKh withthe backdoor flush or even some very agro players can bet big with AKo.
So i spect him to be 3beting me this rangue.

And i spect him to be pot beting me 61% off that 3bet rangue,Tpair+,OESD + Pair and flush draws.

Iff he folds his OESD he is folding 30% off that 61% continuing rangue and iff he folds his FD he will be folding around 40% off that continuing rangue.
As you can see i have 33% equity vs that rangue and the pot odds to call were 33,3% so i had a brake even call, but iff i take his bluffes out off ecuation my equity lowers to 30%.

So lets say he never fold the flushdraws but the OESD he does.
The EV off 3bet Jam F is 30% off time i win 17,2bb+17,2bb uncontested that is 0,30*34,4=10,32 and 70% off time i got called and we have a pot off 117,2bb wish i will win 28% off time 0,28*117,2=32,82 and louse it 0,72*117,2=84,38 so the Ev off the shove is EV=10,32+32,82-84,38=-41,24bb. Wohh i though it was the right muve but no, damm thats why it is important to do this analisis.
Do you thingh he ever has a bluff in this line?
Do you thingh he fold any off his bluffes?

 

[JimmyBrizzy]

This is some heavy analysis and maybe some overthinking of the situation for 10nl. When you consider rake and the opponent you are up against, this is a fold preflop 100% of the time. I wouldn’t even attempt to steal.

 

[freddydr87]

This is some heavy analysis and maybe some overthinking of the situation for 10nl. When you consider rake and the opponent you are up against, this is a fold preflop 100% of the time. I wouldn’t even attempt to steal.

Ty mate i guess i have to make things more simple.

 

[Figaroo2]

42s is not a raise first in hand from any position, in any guide I've ever seen 100bb and I'm auto folding to the three bet when oop.

 

[300HPGOD]

As others have said I dont like pre flop at all. You missed two folds on the pre flop. This is not a steal hand unless the BB is a folder pre (less likely on a 5 handed table) and then when they 3 bet you simply got caught with your hand in the cookie jar which happens to all of us and you fold and move, not a big deal to fold there.

However, as played pre and with that flop I think you should jam as you did. I dont think villain will fold all that often but if we get them to fold at all it is a positive. So we are 35% assuming anytime we make a flush we are good, there will be sometimes the villain folds maybe only 5% (could be higher, no one knows for sure but it is nonzero) and there are sometimes when villain has AK or AJ here (if they have no spade we are actually a favorite) where are 4 and 2 are live cards. Add all that up and I think jamming is the right play IF you get post flop. The real moral of the story here though is that you should have folded by now in two different spots and didnt.

 

[1player2]

Hello,


When villian 3-bets and bets full pot after the flop I'd say no. This is actually a fold preflop to the 3-bet. I might try this if I had position on villian and he checked to me after flop. This is micro stakes so anything is everything.

 

[loafaBREAD]

Hey,

Not to beat a dead horse here... against an aggro three bettor, yes, you do call wider, and 4-bet bluff wider (assuming he folds to 4-bets...)

But you also open tighter! You have to account for his 3-bets, and to avoid losing positions like having to flat 24s pre oop, you just fold it (as many said, it's a fold anyway, unless V is a super nit).

The last suggestion is to switch tables. Even if he is a fish, you can find a better table (ideally one where he is on your right!). It's an uphill battle, and even if you are a better player it will be needlessly tough... the only exception is if he is prone to bluff off his stack, which you said he isn't since he gives up on turns.rivers. If you are defending 3-bets oop with 24s (mathematically the second worst hand in the game) then V has gotten in your head and you need to take a break/move. I've been there too many times, man- it is what it is!

OK... and while I'm here, you gave him a 12% 3-bet range in flopzilla. A few things-

1. What you put in is a reasonable 3-bet range. I construct mine differently(suited aces work well as calls- plus that range is merged, not polarized... I guess he's right to do that if you are never folding pre!), but that range isn't terribly wide.

2. That's not his range, anyway. If he has a 12% OVERALL 3-bet range, that means he (likely, unless he's an idiot) 3-bets less vs UTG opens, but more vs LP opens/blinds. So, he should be 3-betting like 15%+ in this spot to account for his lack of 3-bets against EP.

Don't want to be harsh, but these spots are actually important top look at to analyze the flaws in your thinking... 'leveling' yourself into a decision, as they say.

Keep on keeping on