$10 NLHE 6-max: {Blitz} Thoughts on squeeze play and sizing?

[braun_kan]

Winning Poker, Hold'em No Limit - $0.05/$0.10 - 6 players

UTG: $13.27 (133 bb)
MP: $11.96 (120 bb)
CO: $10.00 (100 bb)
BU: $39.55 (396 bb)
SB (Hero): $14.17 (142 bb)
BB: $22.46 (225 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15) Hero is SB with Q♠ A♣
1 fold, MP raises to $0.20, CO 3-bets to $0.75, BTN calls $0.75, Hero 4-bets to $3.50

Villains are unknowns.

I think this spot warrants a squeeze based on the dead money and because the 10z pool 3-bets a lot so the 3-bet range is weaker on average. My hand also blocks AK, AA and QQ.

I tend to bet really big in these spots for max fold equity, but I'm not sure if I'm risking more BB than necessary. Squeezing to $2.75 probably folds out everything that $3.50 does except maybe TT/JJ which is only a small part of their range, so best to squeeze smaller?

 

[lanelosee100]

Seems too big. You will be folding away $3.5 Everytime opponents have the goods. Just seems like your giving money away unless your opponents are loose and passive. AK seems like a better hand but I'd bet 2.75 and take a flop I see a 5bet

 

[Great Big Pair]

Seems too big. You will be folding away $3.5 Everytime opponents have the goods. Just seems like your giving money away unless your opponents are loose and passive. AK seems like a better hand but I'd bet 2.75 and take a flop I see a 5bet

I learned something here, thank you. I'm adapting a strategy of 3-betting larger than I have been, so it's could to keep in mind that 4-bets on their own convey strength so making them really big doesn't make sense if you aren't wanting to get it all in the middle.

 

[EarnDAStack]

I've looked at it with a few different GTOWizard preflop range variations and AQo doesn't look like it's a squeeze here, It's losing about 1.44bbs against a smaller 3 bet size so it should be losing more vs a 7.5bb 3 bet and the BTN call.

I was wondering what you mean when you say the 10 Blitz pool 3 Bets a lot, compared to what? I don't think I've seen too many players 3-bet at anywhere near a proper frequency meaning they are often going to be much tighter than optimal and not looser.

GTOWizard uses a 24.1 BB sizing or a Jam when it does cold 4 bet from the SB tho so your secondary thoughts on a smaller sizing seem to be correct tho

 

[braun_kan]

I was wondering what you mean when you say the 10 Blitz pool 3 Bets a lot, compared to what? I don't think I've seen too many players 3-bet at anywhere near a proper frequency meaning they are often going to be much tighter than optimal and not looser.

I was comparing it to the 2NL pool which 3-bets tighter, but it seems 10z is also 3-betting tighter than a GTO strategy. So this means that squeezing here is even less profitable than GTO Wizards prediction?

 

[zuker]

it is not squeeze, it`s spewing money
i don`t think AQ better hand than those who raising and 3betting

 

[Recreationalplayer]

Offsuit broadway cards are always good for squeezing as they play poorly post flop. If the CO's 3 betting frequency is higher, then I think its a good play.

 

[EarnDAStack]

I was comparing it to the 2NL pool which 3-bets tighter, but it seems 10z is also 3-betting tighter than a GTO strategy. So this means that squeezing here is even less profitable than GTO Wizards prediction?

Yeah exactly, so in this case you would have a few things working against you, First off a MP open and a CO 3-Bet is a strong formation, the only stronger formation is a EP open and MP 3-Bet. The BTN call only complicates the situation because it's not really something that is done in the overall meta so making assumptions on his range can be dangerous.

Secondly CO's 7.5bb 3-Bet range vs a 2bb open in theory is supposed to be stronger than his range vs a 2.5bb open because you're risking more money to win less.

Thirdly as you said if people are playing tighter than optimal everything kind of gets shifted up the hand matrix, people will have less bluffs and more value making your marginal hands worth less against their stronger range.

And lastly would be the effect of rake at 10 NL compared to the 50NL sims I used to look at your hand. While not necessarily relevant in this hand high rake will drop the values of all of our hands compared to sims that have been ran for a lower rake structure.

(Also the preflop sims I looked at used a 6bb MP 3-Bet which I'm not totally sure how it would react with your hand in theory, it might make your squeeze more profitable because there is more money in the pot or with a 7.5bb size GTOWizard might 3-Bet a tighter range then it does in the sim I looked at)

One of the difficult things I've found at the lower stakes is some people have a somewhat reasonable approach to playing their hands and other people just do weird stuff lol, only half of the GTOWizard sims even had the spot the rest didn't have a BTN flat I don't think because it's not really a strong strategy to employ. You should spend some time on GTOWizard it's a pretty cool App and all their preflop sims are free.

I just started trying to work from a more theory based approach tho, some of this might be wrong but it's how I viewed things from my current understanding.