$10 NLHE 6-max: AKs Missplayed

[AcesUTGFold]

Hold'em No Limit - $0.05/$0.10 - 6 players

UTG: $14.41 (144 bb)
MP (Hero): $10.00 (100 bb)
CO: $31.09 (311 bb)
BU: $20.48 (205 bb)
SB: $15.44 (154 bb)
BB: $12.17 (122 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15) Hero is MP with K♥ A♥
UTG raises to $0.30, Hero 3-bets to $0.90, 4 players fold, UTG calls $0.60

Flop: ($1.95) T♠ 6♥ J♥ (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $1.02, UTG calls $1.02

Turn: ($3.99) A♣ (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $1.02, UTG raises to $4.03, Hero calls $3.01

River: ($12.05) 8♣ (2 players)
UTG bets $4.69, MP (Hero) folds

I'm out of my depth here, what could I have done differently?
Maybe bet the turn bigger and go all-in on a raise from the villain?
I mean, calling the turn and folding the river doesn't sound like a good strategy.

 

[Elgiocatena]

maybe check the turn to induce a bluff in the river
you loose some value but you end up in showdown cheap against twopair or sets

 

[Mercurius]

I think you've called out what you need to do. The turn bet should have been half pot to 2/3rd pot. I think half pot is right given it looks like a more standard double barrel and will get a lot of calls from worse Ax and 2nd pair.

If they raise over the bigger size it helps narrow their range more to the value end and then as you said it's a shove / fold decision - that becomes a bit read dependant on the opponent but given the draw to the nut flush and straight I'd be heavily biased toward shoving.

As an aside, how are you choosing your bet sizing on the flop and turn? They kind of look like you're betting your pot odds of hitting your draw, and even if that's not intentional I think the sizing made them think you were drawing and so they bluffed you off it.

 

[Mercurius]

For better responses (and better play on your side) you want to be quoting their VPIP/PFR stats as a minimum or if you don't have a HUD a brief description of their tendencies (are the aggressive/passive, loose/tight, showing tendencies to bluff etc)

Taking a generic player UTG you'd expect them to be opening most suited broadways, AJo+, 66+ and most suited aces.

I think their calling range is likely 66-TT, ATs-AQs, KQs, QJs, JTs, T9s, AQo+.....they're raising JJ+ and AK, maybe a couple other hands and maybe the JJ is a call, it's borderline.

You had 57% PF; 61% Flop and 74% on the Turn (based on their PF range).

If we assume they're not raising with their 77-99, T9 or QJ you're still well ahead when they raise (58% vs all the sets, two pairs, KQ straights and weaker aces they could hold like AQ) so having looked at it further it's an easy shove over their raise to me.

Clearly you can't run all that at the table (unless you're a high stakes pro using RTA......), but it's worth looking at this stuff off table so you can intuit things when playing. In general if you have TPTK with a straight and flush draw you're always going to be in pretty good shape against a range that called pre-flop rather than 4betting.

Without the nut flush draw you're probably calling turn and river, you'll lose a chunk of the time but often it'll be bluffs/missed draws/worse Ax so still the right play IMO

 

[300HPGOD]

This is 6 handed so the UTG raise does not quite have the strength that full ring UTG would have. Therefore there is more of a chance of J10 suited, KQ, AJ and A10 hands in there along with 66 as well. However, I think we as mentioned by others we need to bet the turn more since we do have TPTK, nut flush draw and gutter to the the nut straight. We can get called by worse there although depending on villain I dont think they are raising their one pair hands there unless it is a just a one pair Ax which pretty much leaves AK (which we heavily block) AQ or possibly A9 (A9 probably does not raise). One key to this is though our bet on the turn is so small and the same amount that we bet on the flop that it makes our hand look weak and villain possibly picked up on the same amount turn bet and decided to bluff. That possibility would have been reduced with a better turn sizing of something like minimum 40% pot.

As played the turn does become a point where you need to decide to jam or fold. Calling is not bad if you are calling river as well but the problem I have with that play is if the heart comes on the river the villain may be able to get away from it and I dont want them to be able to play in a way where they get to bet if doesnt get there and fold if it does.

 

[John A]

Check the turn because your hand blocks second best hands that might call. You're only getting two streets of value here, so in a spot where you have position, you're much better off checking a turn like this and then either calling a river bet or betting if checked to.

 

[AcesUTGFold]

I think you've called out what you need to do. The turn bet should have been half pot to 2/3rd pot. I think half pot is right given it looks like a more standard double barrel and will get a lot of calls from worse Ax and 2nd pair.

If they raise over the bigger size it helps narrow their range more to the value end and then as you said it's a shove / fold decision - that becomes a bit read dependant on the opponent but given the draw to the nut flush and straight I'd be heavily biased toward shoving.

As an aside, how are you choosing your bet sizing on the flop and turn? They kind of look like you're betting your pot odds of hitting your draw, and even if that's not intentional I think the sizing made them think you were drawing and so they bluffed you off it.

I am honestly referring to the bet sizings. I have tried to adapt as well as possible to the hand range of the opponent, so it was certainly also chosen enough by feel. I know feelings have lost nothing in poker but sometimes I just do not know what to do exactly.

 

[AcesUTGFold]

For better responses (and better play on your side) you want to be quoting their VPIP/PFR stats as a minimum or if you don't have a HUD a brief description of their tendencies (are the aggressive/passive, loose/tight, showing tendencies to bluff etc)

Taking a generic player UTG you'd expect them to be opening most suited broadways, AJo+, 66+ and most suited aces.

I think their calling range is likely 66-TT, ATs-AQs, KQs, QJs, JTs, T9s, AQo+.....they're raising JJ+ and AK, maybe a couple other hands and maybe the JJ is a call, it's borderline.

You had 57% PF; 61% Flop and 74% on the Turn (based on their PF range).

If we assume they're not raising with their 77-99, T9 or QJ you're still well ahead when they raise (58% vs all the sets, two pairs, KQ straights and weaker aces they could hold like AQ) so having looked at it further it's an easy shove over their raise to me.

Clearly you can't run all that at the table (unless you're a high stakes pro using RTA......), but it's worth looking at this stuff off table so you can intuit things when playing. In general if you have TPTK with a straight and flush draw you're always going to be in pretty good shape against a range that called pre-flop rather than 4betting.

Without the nut flush draw you're probably calling turn and river, you'll lose a chunk of the time but often it'll be bluffs/missed draws/worse Ax so still the right play IMO

Stats I had looked again and were just under 700 hands. I do not know how meaningful that is.
And I do not know myself there yet so well.
I use the tracker from hand2note.

 

[AcesUTGFold]

And thank you all others for your help.

 

[Prince Mantis]

I think you played hand well. I see no reason in checking back on the T, first you have possion, second you have a ton of equity. You played the hand very well.