$10 NLHE 6-max: AKo 3way

[micromoi]

SB: $11.86 (118.6 bb)
BB: $10.50 (105 bb)
UTG: $11.04 (110.4 bb)
MP: $8.43 (84.3 bb)
CO: $70.16 (701.6 bb)
Hero (BTN): $16.45 (164.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with

UTG raises to $0.30, MP folds, CO calls $0.30, Hero raises to $1.50, 2 folds, UTG calls $1.20, CO calls $1.20

Flop: ($4.65)

(3 players)
UTG checks, CO checks, Hero bets $2.55, UTG raises to $9.54 and is all-in, CO folds, Hero calls $6.99

Turn: ($23.73)

(2 players, 1 is all-in)
River: ($23.73)

(2 players, 1 is all-in)

 

[PaxMundi]

Looks fine.

 

[Hujiko]

Yep standard call.

You have top pair top kicker and even the wet board is in your favor as the villain might try to bluff you of an hand with two hearts or a QT.

 

[panost]

Any stats of him?
It is a sqz 5x. We don't know utg calling range. Lets say it is: QQ,JJ,TT, AQ, AJs and maybe ATs and KQs. I believe he is going to 4b all of his AK combos OOP. Let's say he calls with AKs and 4b with AKo.
What can he raise otf? AhQh, AhJh are 2 combos, AKs is 1 combo and TT are 3 combos.
Vs that we win 19% and split 8.5%.

 

[Hujiko]

Any stats of him?
It is a sqz 5x. We don't know utg calling range. Lets say it is: QQ,JJ,TT, AQ, AJs and maybe ATs and KQs. I believe he is going to 4b all of his AK combos OOP. Let's say he calls with AKs and 4b with AKo.
What can he raise otf? AhQh, AhJh are 2 combos, AKs is 1 combo and TT are 3 combos.
Vs that we win 19% and split 8.5%.

Good point there are only a few draws that can play this way and the hero may already be way behind against villains range.

With what hands would he call the 3 bet squeeze and with what hands would he 4 bet?
My optimistic estimation is that he 4 bets with AA and KK and calls with all AK, AQs, AJs and QQ. What can he raise with on the flop? AhQh, AhJh, AK. Now most hands are a split pot against the drawing hands the hero is a small favorite.

So should we go for the optimistic or pessimistic scenario or something in between. Choices choices choices is what makes poker so difficult. I guess the call is not that standard after all.

All things considered I guess it is a close call between folding and calling. I would call as the villain donk bets out whilst we 3 betted him. I he did not bet out I would have betted out anyway and was pot committed.

 

[Sidetracked]

I think with that wet a board, you have to call, as there are so many draws and combo draws that could play this way.

 

[TheBigFinn]

In rough numbers Hero needs to win 30% of the time. What range does Villain open preflop UTG? Let's say 10% of hands and then just call the 3-Bet with 1/3 of the 10%. A 10% range looks like A5s+ AJo+ KJs+ and 66+ I'd assume Villain 4-bets AK, KK & AKs, but I'm not so sure about AKo. I'd also assume she fold A9s and below & 88 and below plus KQs & KJs, This leaves AKo, AQs, AJs, ATs, QQ, JJ, TT & 99. Of that what does Villain check raise jam with?

AQ, AJ & AT of hearts, TT, AKo I'd guess Hero is a slight dog, but way better than a 30-70 dog and the call closes the betting. I call.

 

[panost]

In rough numbers Hero needs to win 30% of the time. What range does Villain open preflop UTG? Let's say 10% of hands and then just call the 3-Bet with 1/3 of the 10%. A 10% range looks like A5s+ AJo+ KJs+ and 66+ I'd assume Villain 4-bets AK, KK & AKs, but I'm not so sure about AKo. I'd also assume she fold A9s and below & 88 and below plus KQs & KJs, This leaves AKo, AQs, AJs, ATs, QQ, JJ, TT & 99. Of that what does Villain check raise jam with?

AQ, AJ & AT of hearts, TT, AKo I'd guess Hero is a slight dog, but way better than a 30-70 dog and the call closes the betting. I call.

He can't have AhTh, look at the flop.
Vs this range, we win 11.5% , we lose 39% and split 24.55%


Let's say we play 100 times. We have to call 7 $.

100 * 7$ = 700$
we win 11,5 %
11.5 * 23.73$ =272.895 let's say 273$
and we split 24.6%
24.6 * 11$ = 270.6 let's say 270
we give 700$
we win 544$ minus the rake

If we call, we lose 156$, before the rake, per 100 times.

 

[panost]

I am wrong, when we split we win 11.865$, let's say 12$.

24.6 * 12$ = 295$

we give 700$
we win 568$ minus the rake

If we call, we lose 132$, before the rake, per 100 times.

 

[panost]

He can't have AhTh, look at the flop.
Vs this range, we win 11.5% , we lose 39% and split 24.55%


Let's say we play 100 times. We have to call 7 $.

100 * 7$ = 700$
we win 11,5 %
11.5 * 23.73$ =272.895 let's say 273$
and we split 24.6%
24.6 * 11$ = 270.6 let's say 270
we give 700$
we win 544$ minus the rake

If we call, we lose 156$, before the rake, per 100 times.

I am wrong, when we split we win 11.865$, let's say 12$.

24.6 * 12$ = 295$

we give 700$
we win 568$ minus the rake

If we call, we lose 132$, before the rake, per 100 times.

What i am thinking?

QMG

There are an other 24.55% split.
So plus 295$.

If we call, we win 163$ before the rake.

:boxing:

 

[Hujiko]

Any stats of him?
It is a sqz 5x. We don't know utg calling range. Lets say it is: QQ,JJ,TT, AQ, AJs and maybe ATs and KQs. I believe he is going to 4b all of his AK combos OOP. Let's say he calls with AKs and 4b with AKo.
What can he raise otf? AhQh, AhJh are 2 combos, AKs is 1 combo and TT are 3 combos.
Vs that we win 19% and split 8.5%.

This isn't correct either. Total equity of hero's hand AKo against the range you describe is actually 27.8 % (Flopzilla) which is almost enough to call.

 

[TheBigFinn]

He can't have AhTh, look at the flop.
Vs this range, we win 11.5% , we lose 39% and split 24.55%

You're right. TH is on the board. We ranged him with ATs. Hero has the Ace of spades, so the are the club and diamond combos and they are both losing.

 

[John A]

If you want to get better at poker, just posting a hand like this isn't going to be helpful. You want to be discussing what your opponents range is here. That's the only real question in this hand. So you need to be offering one because the math is straight forward right? You need to call $7 more to win 16.7$. So you need ~30% equity or more. Give me a range where you have 30% equity. I don't see it off hand. It's somewhat close, but I don't think you're quite there. You're going to need a lot of draws here for that to make sense, and in a 3-bet pot, granted it's MW, you need to discount some of those draws.

 

[panost]

This isn't correct either. Total equity of hero's hand AKo against the range you describe is actually 27.8 % (Flopzilla) which is almost enough to call.

It is 27.76% but we win 19.28% and we split 8.48%.




Board: 7♦K♥T♥
Equity Win Tie
MP2 27.76% 19.28% 8.48% { AsKd }
MP3 72.24% 63.75% 8.48% { TT, AKs, AhQh, AhJh }

 

[Hujiko]

It is 27.76% but we win 19.28% and we split 8.48%.
Board: 7♦K♥T♥
Equity Win Tie
MP2 27.76% 19.28% 8.48% { AsKd }
MP3 72.24% 63.75% 8.48% { TT, AKs, AhQh, AhJh }

Ah now I see the 8.48% split pot is actually the equity of the split pot. So the chance on a split pot is 16.9% and the equity is half of that 8.5%

 

[panost]

Ah now I see the 8.48% split pot is actually the equity of the split pot. So the chance on a split pot is 16.9% and the equity is half of that 8.5%

Ahh, i see.