This is a discussion on $10 NLHE 6-max: AK River, 3bet pot OOP within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; Hey all,
Please critique my sizings all streets. Obviously I noted that the river was where I made the largest error, as worse hands rarely call
In my opinion you mistook in the turn and the river, you don`t know what does he have. He could have paid with a pair of 99 and made a set in the flop or had the flush draw and got it on the turn. You could have checked to see his reaction and in case he bluffs you take into account his behavior in the table, etc. But pushing it was a clearly the wrong option, i think.
I think the pre flop raise size is fine. We have a hand that flops very well so I dont think there is a need to go with a crazy big re raise size. In my opinion, when we make this raise, we want villain to call, we dont want them to fold even though we are out of position.
The flop bet is too small in my opinion. Making the bet you did, it is an easy call for any villain who has a flush draw since their real plus implied odds makes up for the fact that they are not quite getting the 4 to 1 they need for it make absolute sense to call. The bet should be more in the neighborhood of 12-14 BB in my opinion as QQ-1010 will could still peel a card here and call while smaller Kxs will definitely call.
The turn bet as played I think is the opposite of the flop bet and is too large. Here I think a bet of 40% is better and see how villain reacts to it. If they are going to call this bet they would have to have some pair at a minimum or of course the flush. Any one pair hand is probably not going to be raising you here as I would see only sets and flushes raising (could be wrong on that but its what I would be thinking in the moment if I was playing this hand). A smaller bet then will do the same trick as a larger bet will as it will weed out the crap which we are not getting any more value from anyway, has a small chance of keeping smaller pocket pairs in, and will make it easier for us to fold if we get raised here.
The river jam is very bad because you are only getting called by worse. All QQ and lower pocket pairs if they have got this far are definitely folding and smaller Kx will not even call this jam most likely. I think the best two options here are to check or make a small blocker type bet of 33-40% of pot. I think we can make a case for either but when we check and then get bet into it puts us in a tough spot. A small bet will be an easy bet fold spot for us. I wouldnt be making it as a value bet because not sure what worse will call other than maybe KQ but it will serve the purpose of potentially blocking a bluff.
re: Poker & $10 NLHE 6-max: AK River, 3bet pot OOP
Size down on the turn. Check the river and make a decision, if he bet. Going 3 streets with TPTK in a 3-bet pot, when a flush is possible, is usually a bit to optimistic, especially when you dont have the nut flush blocker.
OTF I will bet more. Maybe 12.5 bb...Small bet OTF with TPTK and big OTT is not a bad line, very often more profitable than others, but on this board I will use a bigger size. FD possible, gutshot also possible.
As played OTT I like the size. Actually he still can have a draw and he will very often check-back, but also very often he will call. I mean If he have a draw. But I will use 19.8 bb.
OTR actually I don't like this bet. Yeah, why to check!? At first look, I don't think we have enough equity. We must have 52-53% to be break even. Let's say we need 54% to make a good bet. Shove...If you bet small , this will be even worse. If your plan is bet-call. Can be good small bet and fold. But he can shove with some hand for check-back. If he have a brave heart . I think I will just check-call. I mean this is my opinion, "at first look", without any info, let's say played at Stars. Can be wrong, you know...