$10 NLHE 6-max: aj hits two pair on the river villain overbets (blind battle)

A

aestheticsNL

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'pokerstars Zoom, Hold'em No Limit - $0.05/$0.10 - 6 players
Replay this hand on Upswing Poker

UTG: $10.87 (109 bb)
MP: $5.59 (56 bb)
CO: $10.30 (103 bb)
BU: $12.05 (121 bb)
SB (Hero): $14.93 (149 bb)
BB: $10.60 (106 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15) Hero is SB with J A
4 players fold, Hero raises to $0.30, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.60) J 3 Q (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $0.43, Hero calls $0.43

Turn: ($1.46) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $1.04, Hero calls $1.04

River: ($3.54) A (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $4.56, Hero???



This was a hand I played this evening on pokerstars zoom 6max 10NL.

I have ajo in the sb and it get fold towards me so I open to 3 bb. The bb decides to call. Villan is an unknown. That means that I have less than 10 hands on him. (My hud stats will appear after more than 10 hands)

I think villain is some kind of reg because of the fact that he is 100 bb deep. When I put an unknown on a range of hands I always take his range really widely to be sure that I don't mis a combination that he can have. So i putt him on the next range of hands:

TT-22,AJo-A2o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,98o,87o,76o,65o,AJs-A2s,KQs-K2s,QJs-Q2s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T7s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s,43s

Yes he probably 3bets tt,99,aj,kq and he probably folds 43s 56o and some more bad hands, but I don't know that for sure so i take his range widely as I explained before.

On the flop I decided not to make a c-bet. Normally I do,but it is a boardtexture where your c-bet sometimes get raised and that will put me in a tough situation so I decided to go for a checkcall.

Villain bets and that doesn't give me that much information. He can do this with his whole range just to take a stab at the pot.

The turn is a 7, and I decide to checkcall again. When he leads the turn I putt him on the next range of hands:

77,33,AJo,KQo-KTo,QJo-Q9o,T9o,AJs-A4s,A2s,KQs-K4s,K2s,QJs-Q4s,Q2s,T9s-T7s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s,43s

all suited hands from diamonds of course.

The river is an ace of clubs which makes two pair for me. I check and he overbets the pot. What should I do here. The first question I ask myself, can I beat some valuebets? The only valuebet I can beat is j-q but I think he will not bet j-q so big because I can easily have a-j or a-q.

So the only value hand I can beat is sometimes j-q but I don't think j-q will takes this line.

His range is probably very polarized on this river. Some bluffs with missed draws and nutted hands.

I put him on the next range of hands (noted I have deleted the flushdraw with showdown value because he is more likely to check back with those hands and use his flushdraws with totall air as a bluf.

77,33,AJo,KTo,QJo,T9o,AJS,KTS,-K4s,K2s,QJs,T9s-T7s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s,43s

Which hands are beating me:

77,33,kto,ktS (22 combo's)

Which hands do I beat:

QJo,QJS (don't count this hands because he probably usea thin valuebet here)

t9S(4 combo's) because he can take this line with oesd as well.

,T9o, (16 combo's)
-K4s,K2s,,T9s-T7s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s,43s (14 combo's)

Splitpot:
AJo,ajs (don't count this hands because he probably uses a thin valuebet here)

How many combo's are beating me: 22 combo's

How many combo's do I beat: 34

But the question is, will he take this line with all of his missed draws. Probably not. Let's say that villain does this 50% of the time whith his missed draws. that gives him
34*0,5= 17 combo's.

How many equity do I need:

4,56/(8,1+4,56) = 36%

How many equity do I have:

I beat 17 combo's
I lose to 22 combo's

17/(17+22) = 43,5% equity.

My equity is higher than my required equity so based on this I should make the call. But the problem is, this are all a assumptions. Maybe villain almost never blufs or maybe he bluffs way more often. So my analysis said that I have to call here. But what is your opinion. Should I have called or fold in this spot on the river?
 
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cs_rlewis

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I would call here.
Aj is at the top of our range here and you've checked all 3 streets, you beat a lot of his value hands such as qx and ax hands.
Yes we lose to sets, some straights, and aq but there are plenty of hands we still beat.
Don't forget to include the ax combos you beat - for example villain could be semi bluffing on flop and turn with suited ace diamonds, and villain could easily value bet this on the river to get value from your J or Q holdings.
Id have to analyse it more thoroughly by taking in pot odds and combos, but just from face value id call.
 
A

aestheticsNL

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I would call here.
Aj is at the top of our range here and you've checked all 3 streets, you beat a lot of his value hands such as qx and ax hands.
Yes we lose to sets, some straights, and aq but there are plenty of hands we still beat.
Don't forget to include the ax combos you beat - for example villain could be semi bluffing on flop and turn with suited ace diamonds, and villain could easily value bet this on the river to get value from your J or Q holdings.
Id have to analyse it more thoroughly by taking in pot odds and combos, but just from face value id call.


Thankyou for your answer. I don't think I beat much value hands. In my opinion and experience, when people overbet the river they are very polarized. They either have a nutted hand or they are bluffing with total air. For example, will he really overbet the river with just an ace? Probably not, because I will fold al my weaker hands and call with hands that beat him. So an ace will most likely be betting 1/3e off the pot for some thin value. To try and get a call from an queen or an jack.

So the only value hand I beat is in my opinion jack-queen for flopped two pair. And I even think that such a hand will go for some thinner value.

So this is my thinking which leaves villain only with k-10 for a semi-bluff on the flop and turn, and an overbet for value when he gets there on the river.

The other two hands he can possibly have are a set of 3 and a set of 7. But a set of 7 is unlikely because most of the time he will check back the flop with pocket 7's because he has some sort of showdownvalue. But occasionally he might bet pocket 7 on the flop, for protection or something, so there is a possibility he has this hand but it is unlikely.

So the guy probably has k-10 or 33 which are 19 combo's and occasionaly pocket 77

And he will do it with missed draws as well because it is a great spot for him to do. He probably puts me on a jack or a weak queen and I will fold al those hands. So I agree that it has to be a call here, at least that is my opinion.
 
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micromoi

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u did raise preflop and u didn't cbet that means u r giving up on the hand but u did choose to call going from there u did call the turn and don't why u woudn't call the river following your strategy. for me i would have cbet the flop and go from there if i get raised i fold if i get called i would call back and fold if the bet is over 2/3 pot.
 
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MungBeans

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Nice analysis, I'm trying to follow along with your thinking but I'm confused why you kept KTs-K4s in his hand range on the river and eliminated ATs-A4s as well as QTs-Q4s?
 
puzzlefish

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I haven't been on Stars for a while, but don't you just buy in for up to $10 on $0.05/$0.10? So therefore why would you put villain as a reg? Seems like he is just barely over the standard buy-in.

Also, any reason why you don't include AK and AQ in his range? The way it is played by villain seems like a standard TPTK betting line to me.. maybe a bit over-aggressive, but fits AQ to me and would be a fold on the river.
 
A

aestheticsNL

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Nice analysis, I'm trying to follow along with your thinking but I'm confused why you kept KTs-K4s in his hand range on the river and eliminated ATs-A4s as well as QTs-Q4s?

When he is bluffing he probably takes the missed flushdraws without showdownvalue. ATs-A4S as well ass QtS Q4S have showdownvalue. I think that he will check back with his missed queen high flushdraws because he has no reason to bluff due to the fact that he has secund pair. The ace high flushdraws now have toppair, so he can even make a thin valuebet. But because he overbets the pot I put him on nutted hands and bluffs and toppair isn't a bluff but also not a valuebet when he overbets. So for this reason I elimanted Ats-A4s QTs-Q4s from his overbetting range on the river.
 
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aestheticsNL

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I haven't been on Stars for a while, but don't you just buy in for up to $10 on $0.05/$0.10? So therefore why would you put villain as a reg? Seems like he is just barely over the standard buy-in.

Also, any reason why you don't include AK and AQ in his range? The way it is played by villain seems like a standard TPTK betting line to me.. maybe a bit over-aggressive, but fits AQ to me and would be a fold on the river.

Yes, but lots of fish buyin for less than 100 bb. And based on the only read I have (his stacksize) I cannot assume that he is a fish. He can still be a fish ofcourse, but it is less likely.

Ak and aq as well as aa,kk,qq,jj are 3bets preflop. And the fact that he calls my open means that he doesn't have those hands.

So I think he almost never has aq here because 90% of the players will 3bet aq from the bb against a sb open.
 
puzzlefish

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Yes, but lots of fish buyin for less than 100 bb. And based on the only read I have (his stacksize) I cannot assume that he is a fish. He can still be a fish ofcourse, but it is less likely.

Ak and aq as well as aa,kk,qq,jj are 3bets preflop. And the fact that he calls my open means that he doesn't have those hands.

So I think he almost never has aq here because 90% of the players will 3bet aq from the bb against a sb open.
Some more points/questions:

1. There are both fish and regs that buy in at various levels vs. 100bb. I don't think you should be taking anything at all from his stack size here. He could have started at less than 100bb and got a lucky hand, or took a bad beat from a higher stack size. You don't really know anything from this number so drawing reads is hopeful at most.

2. You are the one that 3bet from SB, am I right or did I misread the hand history somehow (or maybe I am misunderstanding terminology- edit: confirmed my misunderstanding via Google/disregard the previous line). If you were holding AQ in BB would you not call the bet like he did? It is 3bb already..

I think AA, KK, and QQ (maybe even JJ) might re-raise you pre-flop but AK and AQ should call at least some of the time. Is there a source that you rely on to infer that AQ and AK should re-raise or just your take on it?
 
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I mostly fold in cases like this. Now the thing is that I fold because I have no idea what to do, not really because it’s the correct way. This attitude probably hinders my analytical approach to this.

Following has nothing to do with poker, just a thought process: So he can have KT or a set for value. If we bluntly assume that he will be 3barreling draw 10% of time here taking 0.1* 34 (took those you think are ahead of you) = 3.4 ~= 4 combos. Adding 10% trash. There are 8 combos you beat vs 22 value combos.

He keeps flop and turn bet sizing the same, most likely uses bet size button, that does not hint villain is too complicated player. I personally would be agonizing the size here. Then he over bets the river, if we go by this, his river bet is uncomplicated too making it nuts with high probability.

I’m not a fan of disabling hud. Only reason not to use it for under 10 hands is that you have identified a big leak in your stat reading skill, but that is very much skill to learn among the others in zoom and you need to pay the learning costs.
 
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aestheticsNL

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Some more points/questions:

1. There are both fish and regs that buy in at various levels vs. 100bb. I don't think you should be taking anything at all from his stack size here. He could have started at less than 100bb and got a lucky hand, or took a bad beat from a higher stack size. You don't really know anything from this number so drawing reads is hopeful at most.

2. You are the one that 3bet from SB, am I right or did I misread the hand history somehow (or maybe I am misunderstanding terminology- edit: confirmed my misunderstanding via Google/disregard the previous line). If you were holding AQ in BB would you not call the bet like he did? It is 3bb already..

I think AA, KK, and QQ (maybe even JJ) might re-raise you pre-flop but AK and AQ should call at least some of the time. Is there a source that you rely on to infer that AQ and AK should re-raise or just your take on it?


I open the pot from the sb to 3 bb. He just flats my open. If he reraise my open, to lets say 9 bb that is a 3-bet. And I think that almost all regs above 2 NL will 3-bet at least aqo+ from the bb vs a sb open. Most regs will even 3-bet hand like aj, a10S for value, because it is a blind battle and my stealing range is pretty wide.

For that reason I think he will almost never show up with aq,ak here because 90% of the people will 3-bet this.
 
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For people who are interested:

This was the outcome of the hand. Didn't put it in my first post, because I thought that maybe you answers would be affected by the outcome of the hand.


PokerStars Zoom, Hold'em No Limit - $0.05/$0.10 - 6 players
Hand delivered by Upswing Poker

UTG: $10.87 (109 bb)
MP: $5.59 (56 bb)
CO: $10.30 (103 bb)
BU: $12.05 (121 bb)
SB (Hero): $14.93 (149 bb)
BB: $10.60 (106 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15) Hero is SB with J A
4 players fold, Hero raises to $0.30, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.60) J 3 Q (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $0.43, Hero calls $0.43

Turn: ($1.46) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $1.04, Hero calls $1.04

River: ($3.54) A (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $4.56, Hero calls $4.56

Total pot: $12.66 (Rake: $0.57)

Showdown:
BB shows T 9 (high card, Ace)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 36%, Flop: 33%, Turn: 18%, River: 0%)

SB (Hero) shows J A (two pair, Aces and Jacks)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 64%, Flop: 67%, Turn: 82%, River: 100%)

SB (Hero) wins $12.09

As you can see, I did end up making the call. And villain had a busted straight draw. I did like his play do, because that ace was a big scare card, a lot of the times I have a queen or a jack and I can't really call a overbet on the river.
 
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Okay, I like your reasoning, you must be a winning player at $10NL because I don't think people would think this deep at that level. In my opinion, our AJ is somewhat strong here vs 1 player in big blind. This is a dangerous flop, 2 diamonds and possible straight draws; so we check/call is the obvious decision here. The turn is somewhat safe for us if he has some type of flush or straight draw, a 7 spade is meaning less to us; so I like check/call here too. On the river, the A of club is our perfect card. I would check/raise here but the BB over bet the pot which is kind of weird because he should know that we only have Jx here if he is a thinking player, why would he bet so big vs Jx? I would call this bet but I would also thinking about min raising this river bet because our AJ is so good against some of his 2 pair bet on this river. We should not fear about the straight because most people would check back the straight draw at this level.
 
John A

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I'd lean towards a fold. You're in the classic under repped hand spot where you've checked all 3 streets, so he's reading you as a medium strength hand. Obviously this is going to open up your opponents bluffing range, but generally speaking at these stakes, opponents don't over bet pot as bluffs very often. I think if you fold every one of these on the whole, you'll be ahead EV wise. That doesn't mean you won't be bluffed sometimes.

If you really think about your range here from villians perspective, you have some medium strength holding, unlikely w/ an A and you can also have several draws as well. So on the whole, he really shouldn't need to over bet to bluff. A lot of your range will just fold to a 2/3rd pot bet. I don't know how much opponents at this level are considering their bet size versus your calling range, but even at these stakes, players understand this better than they used to.

Looks like you called and won from your above post, so maybe what I'm saying is nonsense. :)
 
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aestheticsNL

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I'd lean towards a fold. You're in the classic under repped hand spot where you've checked all 3 streets, so he's reading you as a medium strength hand. Obviously this is going to open up your opponents bluffing range, but generally speaking at these stakes, opponents don't over bet pot as bluffs very often. I think if you fold every one of these on the whole, you'll be ahead EV wise. That doesn't mean you won't be bluffed sometimes.

If you really think about your range here from villians perspective, you have some medium strength holding, unlikely w/ an A and you can also have several draws as well. So on the whole, he really shouldn't need to over bet to bluff. A lot of your range will just fold to a 2/3rd pot bet. I don't know how much opponents at this level are considering their bet size versus your calling range, but even at these stakes, players understand this better than they used to.

Looks like you called and won from your above post, so maybe what I'm saying is nonsense. :)


Thank you for your answer, and what you said, that he can bet 2/3rd pot to bluf is really interesting. I had not thought about that yet.

I am indeed most likely to have some medium strengt holding. But if he thinks about my range, is he not more likely to make a small value bet as well the time he has a set or 10-k for the straight? Because my range is most likely weak holdings which are not going to call a potsized bet. Ofcourse, the time he has the set or straight his thougths can be, I overbet the river to let it look like a bluf?
 
A

aestheticsNL

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Okay, I like your reasoning, you must be a winning player at $10NL because I don't think people would think this deep at that level. In my opinion, our AJ is somewhat strong here vs 1 player in big blind. This is a dangerous flop, 2 diamonds and possible straight draws; so we check/call is the obvious decision here. The turn is somewhat safe for us if he has some type of flush or straight draw, a 7 spade is meaning less to us; so I like check/call here too. On the river, the A of club is our perfect card. I would check/raise here but the BB over bet the pot which is kind of weird because he should know that we only have Jx here if he is a thinking player, why would he bet so big vs Jx? I would call this bet but I would also thinking about min raising this river bet because our AJ is so good against some of his 2 pair bet on this river. We should not fear about the straight because most people would check back the straight draw at this level.

I am a winning player indeed, but have some big leaks which I am trying to improve at. One of them is that I call to light on the river because I am always thinking that people try to bluff me off my hand. That is one of the reasons I am analysing this river situation.

And as you said, checkcalling flop and turn here is in my opionion also the best option. Because I expect a lot of reraises here when I c-bet this flop. And I can't really continue than even tho he probably does it whit a lot of draws, so for that reason I think a checkcall is better.

I don't agree with you that most players check back their straightdraws. In my opinion even at 10NL most players play their draws pretty agressive.
 
Q

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On the flop I decided not to make a c-bet. Normally I do,but it is a boardtexture where your c-bet sometimes get raised and that will put me in a tough situation so I decided to go for a checkcall.

You´ll propably need to revisit your cbet strategy. On this board you´ll simply have to cbet for value. You need to extract value from all the draws and Jacks out there. If you get raised, you will still call most of the time, because villain will raise so many draws here.

I mean, if you don´t cbet this hand, which hands do you cbet on this board?
To protect your check range you can add Qx and Jx with weaker Kicker to your check range, but betting all Jx/Qx with decent kicker is mandatory.

If you decide to c/c c/c you need to call this river versus random villain. You can adjust on this spots if you have more information about villain.
 
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