$10 NLHE 6-max: A3cc: great flop for a raise, but to how much?

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Lofwyr

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Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1239445
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

UTG: $19.24 (50/40 lag-fish)
MP: $3.75
Hero (CO): $10.00
BTN: $10.28 (13/0 nit)
SB: $10.79
BB: $10.09 (new player, raised 1/5 hands thusfar)

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with 3
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A
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UTG raises to $0.25, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.25, 2 folds, BB raises to $0.70, UTG calls $0.45, Hero calls $0.45

Flop: ($2.15) 6
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2
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8
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(3 players)
BB bets $0.70, UTG calls $0.70, Hero ???
Flatting pre and calling the 3bet don't seem too wrong. Trying to play position against a player who will keep betting with bad hands at first, then a pot odds/implied odds thing. But I'm interested to hear what others say about it.

More concerned with flop play though. The flop is quite nice for my hand, about as good as they get really, I rather think a raise is optimal. I'm assuming BB has a fairly normal 3bet/squeeze range of ~5-6%. Basically JJ+/AK. I can probably fold out AK, but JJ+ isn't going anywhere. So what kind of size should I make my raise?
 
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papatango123

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you should fold prefop to the 3bet really.

doesnt matter what the raise is because one of them must have an overpair so you arent going to get them both to fold so you should shove if your going to do anything as if you raise to $3 they call and you miss the turn your in no mans land.
 
bgomez89

bgomez89

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Lol so you're just going to raise to just fold out AK? If the bulk of his range includes over pairs that he never folds then why try and bluff? Just draw, you'll probably still get paid off when you hit a club
 
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Lofwyr

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Lol so you're just going to raise to just fold out AK? If the bulk of his range includes over pairs that he never folds then why try and bluff? Just draw, you'll probably still get paid off when you hit a club

I have 12 outs twice and a BDSD against JJ-KK which gives me ~45% equity. I have a blocker against AA, so it's less likely than JJ-KK...but even so I still have 9 outs and BDSD which is ~37% equity. Combined I have ~44% equity against all JJ+. Given my stack size & pot size it should be +EV to get all my chips in now if he never has AK in his range and calls a shove every time. Any FE is just gravy really.

There's also a third player I want to fold out. Le's say he's a donkey (he is) and flatted with something like A9/AT...he floats a cbet but will fold to a raise from me which buys me extra outs against the above Overpairs.

Mainly, I'm curious if people think there is a more +ev move than shoving. Is a raise here followed by shoving most turns going to produce significantly higher FE to balance against the equity I lose when that turn blanks?
 
Traggy

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Chance of a slow play set. Chance that there is another flush draw with that board as well. You re-raise the overpair will likely fold, but the set might push. I would raise, 2.10. The overpair will call that most likely and check 4th to you. If you get pushed on here from the re-raise, from UTG (build pot and sets up a steal on 4th) I think you are behind. Just hope you are not up against a set, because I can see 88 showing up here. I do not see AK calling this flop with a three bet preflop.

I personally just call and hope it hits. It gives the hand away, but you reraise a big over pair he likely will push.
 
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ComplexPlaya

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Calling the 3-bet was bad, 4-bet or fold it. As played I like raising because BB cbet very small, he's either slow playing good hands or missed and you love getting the pot now. I guess raise to about $4
 
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