Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.1(BB)
CO ($17.15) [VPIP: 31.3% | PFR: 21.8% | AGG: 33.1% | Flop Agg: 40.4% | Turn Agg: 38.5% | River Agg: 10.7% | 3-Bet: 0% | 4-Bet: 0% | Hands: 216]
BTN ($8.74) [VPIP: 20.3% | PFR: 11.6% | AGG: 38.2% | Hands: 70]
SB ($6.33) [VPIP: 26.1% | PFR: 23% | AGG: 31.7% | Hands: 169]
HERO ($22.07) [VPIP: 25.8% | PFR: 20.9% | AGG: 34% | Flop Agg: 43.8% | Turn Agg: 28.1% | River Agg: 18.9% | 3-Bet: 5.4% | 4-Bet: 9.4% | Cold Call: 12.5% | Hands: 37269]
UTG ($35.05) [VPIP: 29.3% | PFR: 12.4% | AGG: 29.6% | Hands: 1605]
HJ ($3.54) [VPIP: 19.4% | PFR: 3% | AGG: 26.5% | Hands: 69]

Dealt to Hero: 4♠ 2♠

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Raises To $0.30, BTN Folds, SB Folds, HERO Calls $0.20

Hero SPR on Flop: [25.92 effective]
Flop ($0.65): J♣ 2♥ 4♥
HERO Checks, CO Bets $0.41 (Rem. Stack: $16.44), HERO Raises To $1.48 (Rem. Stack: $20.29), CO Calls $1.07 (Rem. Stack: $15.37)

Turn ($3.61): J♣ 2♥ 4♥ T♦
HERO Bets $2.77 (Rem. Stack: $17.52), CO Calls $2.77 (Rem. Stack: $12.60)

River ($9.15): J♣ 2♥ 4♥ T♦ T♥
HERO ??

it looks to me based on the action that villain can have a range like [QQ+, J9+, AhXh,KhXh]

he's obviously not going to fold the flush but I'm if a river shove is a good play in this spot...

I think the best play is to fold your 42ss to the raise preflop.

And once the river pairs the ten, your hand becomes pretty worthless.

If you want to play just somewhat "correct" poker, then this does look like a perfect spot to turn a counterfeited hand into a bluff. You have very little showdown value, you have relevant blockers to some of the full houses, and the river card completed a draw, which you can represent. So the only reason to NOT bluff here would be, if you have a read, that this particular opponent just does not want to fold top pair or better.

Originally Posted by Sidetracked

I think the best play is to fold your 42ss to the raise preflop.

And once the river pairs the ten, your hand becomes pretty worthless.

Calling 42s seems reasonable to me in this spot. Pot odds dictate I need at least 30% equity to call, giving CO a raise range of [22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q6s+,J9s+, T8s+, 97s+,86s+, 76s, 54s,A8o+,KTo+,QTo+, JTo] gives me around 32%.

I guess you pushed the river and you were right in this hand because villain showed some AK as a defeated bluff catcher. The most important question for this hand is: Will these types of exploitative lines be profitable in the long run? I guess not, because our limper range is quite marginal, which causes it to be neutralized in postflop most of the time with stronger combinations. Anyway, I like your line as a random defense from the blinds, which of course we should execute a small frequency of times, when it comes to spaced low rise connectors.
Greetings.

Originally Posted by fundiver199

If you want to play just somewhat "correct" poker, then this does look like a perfect spot to turn a counterfeited hand into a bluff. You have very little showdown value, you have relevant blockers to some of the full houses, and the river card completed a draw, which you can represent. So the only reason to NOT bluff here would be, if you have a read, that this particular opponent just does not want to fold top pair or better.

I donīt think he would fold the flush to a bluff here. I think you should have re-raised him higher with the size of your bet there`s no way to tell if he have JJ, a flush draw or something else.

Originally Posted by gustav197poker

I guess you pushed the river and you were right in this hand because villain showed some AK as a defeated bluff catcher. The most important question for this hand is: Will these types of exploitative lines be profitable in the long run? I guess not, because our limper range is quite marginal, which causes it to be neutralized in postflop most of the time with stronger combinations. Anyway, I like your line as a random defense from the blinds, which of course we should execute a small frequency of times, when it comes to spaced low rise connectors.
Greetings.

to be fair, I wouldn't want villain to fold AK...

I'm no expert, but calling a raise on the big blind with 42s doesn make sense to me , I know it's about defending your blinds but your already price in at the turn, so there's no turning back on the river , just raise big with your 42s , continue and see what happens

Originally Posted by jfmcd86

I'm no expert, but calling a raise on the big blind with 42s doesn make sense to me , I know it's about defending your blinds but your already price in at the turn, so there's no turning back on the river , just raise big with your 42s , continue and see what happens

see my post earlier in the thread, I believe pot odds make this a call pre

Originally Posted by Viparida

I donīt think he would fold the flush to a bluff here.

If we bluff, we are not trying to make him fold a flush. We are trying to make him fold all his overpairs and JX type hands. For this reason I also think, an overbet jam might not be the best size to use. Against that size he is probably supposed to fold some of his smaller flushes, and its kind of questionable, if that is always going to happen.

But if Hero bet a normal size like 60-65% pot, it only needs to work 40% of the time, and it should really get any two pair hand to fold. From the perspective of Villain, what does two pair even beat now, when the main draw got there? Its not easy to come up with bluffs for Hero, and Villain might not even think about a hand like 42s as being in Heros range.

However all of this is assuming, that Villain is a competent player, and when I see those HUD stats, they might actually stop me in my tracks. This guy is playing to many hands even for 6-max, he has a wide gap between VPIP and PFR, and over a sample of 216 he has not put in a single 3-bet or 4-bet.

This is not someone, I think is very good, and I can easily see a player like this not wanting to lay down his top pair or overpair in a spot like this. So while bluffing is the most correct line, against this particular individual I would probably just have checked with intentions to fold to a bet.