https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/5qfSqXg
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Would anyone have played that hand differently from seat 5? I guess I could have checked back the turn but I was trying to fold out a pair of Kings, planning to give up on most rivers but my gin card came. Wasn't so gin however
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I did range v range analysis however and its hard to determine what would call two streets and bluff check jam the river. From my analysis he should have about 9% bd flushes that got there, 60% pair of ace and 26% two pair. Would a reasonable player jam top pair or two pair as a bluff on this run out?
Hi there 6bet, thank you for sharing your hand with the CardsChat community. Very good hand!
Well it is very easy to say what to do after we see the hand, right? Okay, but lemme try not to be oriented by results.
So, I see that you are opening QJo from the MP. Well, we have 16 combos of QJ, 4 suited combos and 12 off suited combos ok? I don't love opening 100% of my QJ combos from the MP. Specially the off-suited ones.
There are four players ahead to talk and QJ will not sustain preflop pressure. From time to time, we can call with QJs against a player who 3-bets to much, even so, if the player is in position it is bad for us and if the player is out of position it is not going to be nice, theoretically SB and BB are 3-betting versus EP only with strong hands.
That being said, I don't hate at all opening QJ from the MP, if we have information of the players ahead. Do you have any information about the BB player?
The Flop:
It's a okay flop, because it hits more the MP's range than the BB's range. MP can have in a flop like this AK, AQ, AJ, AT, KQ, KJ, maybe A3, TT, JJ, QQ, KK and AA. It is a real good flop for the MP's range and the C-bet flop is also okay.
The size should vary here depending on Villain: if you believe BB is gonna call you more with pocket pairs in a situation like this, make 1/3 pot. If you believe BB is gonna call you more with draws, something between 1/2 pot (versus regulars) and 2/3 pot or even more (versus recreational) could work fine.
If we don't know the player at all, the check-line also can work, in a low frequency. We don't want to give a free card to our opponent, but by the same token, we have only a semi-bluff itself. Do we have a plan for the times we miss the turn? And we are going to miss the turn in a very high frequency with a gutshot, 4%
equity? Does a Qx or a Jx are going to help you in many turns and rivers? If doubles aces or threes are you okay?
The Turn
Again, you started the story and decided to continue it in the Turn, having information that you are going to miss this river more than the turn. Besides, we should ask ourselves what the hell BB called with?
Our range is very strong here and there's a relative chance of BB to fold its draws. The club back door is not a concern for us when we have AK, AA, KK, A3 and A2 now. We want to extract value and when you bet that much in the turn, polarizing your range, it seems a lot that you are, indeed,
bluffing.
The River:
Did you bet the River because you had a flush removal with the Q of clubs? Because if you check the River with your value hand, villain can think that you gave up the hand because of the flush and try to bluff you (in theory). IF Villain doesn't shove you have an easy call.
When you bet, BB can easily play close to perfect and leave all of its missing draws (which, by the way, we are blocking) and calls and jams only with better hands. We know that aren't too many flushes in BB's range in the River, however do you really believe a recreational player would be bluffing you all-in river with Top pair? Set?
The better scenario here will be when Villain show you that it also has QJ and both make the Poker Room more rich by paying more rake.
Call me NIT, but I really don't see many bluffs at the micros in situations like this.
Why do I believe BB is a recreational player?
I don't see regulars chasing flushes like this. Okay, some may arguee that the BB player had Top Pair+Back Door in the turn, but why did he/she called the flop? MP's range is crushing completely BB's range right now! The worse King MP could have in a flop like this is K9s, IMO.
There are some laggy players who opens K8 or less from MP but I don't know how to play like this. I don't know if it is profitable either.
BB has a huge reverse implied
odds scenario where it is not going to hit the flush in the river and be forced to either leave the hand to aggresion, hope the adversary to bluff or try to bluff itself by jamming the river.
Regards;
Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa